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In the Maldives’ fragile democratic landscape, President Muizzu is advancing sweeping electoral reforms that could tilt the balance of power in his favour ahead of 2028
As a young democracy, the Maldives is witnessing President Mohamed Muizzu seek parliamentary backing for key electoral reforms. These include a proposal to recast the presidential election format, organise ‘simultaneous’ presidential and parliamentary elections, and discard atoll councils at the grassroots of representative democracy.
Currently, parliamentary elections are held about six months after the presidential poll. During the previous intervening ‘lame-duck’ period, the ‘Opposition-controlled’ House had put roadblocks to the Executive President from the ‘rival’ camp. Similarly, atoll and island council elections—coincidentally held midway through the term of the presidency— set the tone of the subsequent presidential elections, working to the disadvantage of the incumbent on occasions.
For the record, the ruling People’s National Congress (PNC) has a whopping majority in the 93-member Parliament. President Muizzu’s proposals, when drafted into a new constitutional bill, will have the required two-thirds majority to be voted in. Additionally, the Muizzu-initiated anti-defection law is already at work and will ensure no PNC member, especially, dares to think independently, losing their status as an elected parliamentarian.
The Muizzu-initiated anti-defection law is already at work and will ensure no PNC member, especially, dares to think independently, losing their status as an elected parliamentarian.
What thus matters is the inevitability of a ‘national referendum’ before the constitutional bill, when the latter is presented to and passed by Parliament, becomes law. In this case, it would also be a ‘mid-term referendum’ on Muizzu’s leadership, independent of the question(s) on the ballot. The referendum is estimated to cost MVR 55 million to the State.
As the sharper competitive campaign builds up, there must be greater spending by those for and against Muizzu’s initiative. The Opposition—especially the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP)—is inherently disadvantaged in this department as well as on the political front. Mohammed ‘Anni’ Nasheed, former President and founder of The Democrats (that broke away from the MDP ahead of the 2023 presidential poll), has already endorsed Muizzu’s proposal for a preferential voting system. However, he is still silent on simultaneous polls.
Originally, Nasheed used to campaign for instituting a parliamentary democracy, before coming to power, during his presidency, and more recently while breaking up the MDP to float The Democrats in 2023. For the then MDP incumbent and estranged friend, Ibrahim ‘Ibu’ Solih, the 7 percent vote-share polled by The Democrats in the first phase of the presidential election in 2023, cost him his re-election. Final polling figures showed the Democrats’ abstention in the second phase made the difference to the outcome.
What does Muizzu’s proposal on presidential poll reform entail? In the place of a two-phase polling, based on a 50-percent cut-off since the advent of the 2008 multi-party democracy Constitution, Muizzu now proposes to adopt a single-phase, preference-vote model, possibly as obtained in neighbouring Sri Lanka. He says the change-over will cut costs for the State, individual political parties, and their candidates. It will also save the time expended on the second-phase campaign, which expands the ‘suspense factor’ as the government comes to a virtual standstill, even otherwise.
The key difference between the two systems is this: under the two-phase polling scheme, the top two first-round candidates proceed to the second phase polling, where a 50-percent cut-off for either of the candidates becomes an in-built fait accompli. Under the preference scheme in Sri Lanka, for instance, the 50-percent cut-off is (supposedly) mandatory. It is calculated through two or more rounds of counting, based on the numbering system of the voter marking his preference for candidates—1,2, and 3—and not more, despite the number of candidates in the field.
Falling back on a safety-valve constitutional provision, the election authorities declared present-day incumbent Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the front-runner from the first round, the victor, defeating the very purpose of an elaborately thought-out scheme.
Both have inherent flaws, all the same. While the two-phase scheme claims to represent the ‘majority opinion’ in a democracy, it does not provide for a theoretical situation in which the voter turnout in the second phase is abysmally small, and possibly less than half the electorate, that too compared to the first round.
Considering the ‘preferential voting system’, Sri Lanka’s presidential poll last year exposed an inherent inability. Despite the numbering system and two rounds of counting of preferential votes, there was no real victor as no candidate achieved the mandatory halfway mark. Falling back on a safety-valve constitutional provision, the election authorities declared present-day incumbent Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the front-runner from the first round, the victor, defeating the very purpose of an elaborately thought-out scheme.
Barring the 2018 election, the Maldivian presidential polls, every five years, have involved open horse-trading at an institutionalised level. In context, the two final-round candidates used to publicly woo top runner-up candidates from the first phase. Such wooing, through private promises and commitments, some of which were not kept, alone helped the victor cross the halfway mark in the second phase.
In 2008 and 2013, the runners-up from the first phase, particularly Gasim Ibrahim of the Jumhooree Party (JP), had substantial ‘transferrable vote shares’ of 15 percent and a higher 24 percent, respectively. His camp’s contribution was the clincher for the election of Nasheed (2008) and Abdulla Yameen (2013). Against this, in 2008, Nasheed was running a distant second to incumbent Maumoon Abdul Gayoom in the first phase, but had the backing of Hassan Saeed (16 percent vote-share), apart from Gasim’s 15, taking the final tally, 54-46 percent.
In 2013, Yameen wrested power from the previously elected President, Mohammed ‘Anni’ Nasheed of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), once again with the support of JP’s Gasim Ibrahim in the second phase, 51-49. In both elections, the final victor came a distant second to the front-runner in the first phase, raising basic questions about his ‘absolute majority’ and hence legitimacy. The figures were 40–25 in 2008 and 45–25 in 2013.
In both elections, the final victor came a distant second to the front-runner in the first phase, raising basic questions about his ‘absolute majority’ and hence legitimacy.
The two subsequent presidential elections became more polarised, the former through a pre-poll alliance, unlike before or after. In 2018, all Opposition parties backed MDP’s Ibrahim ‘Ibu’ Solih, enabling him to become the first and only President to win in a directly-fought first phase against incumbent Yameen, 58-42, which is also the highest margin thus far.
Muizzu’s election five years later, circa 2023, was not a first-phase victory but a near-polarised election. He won both phases against incumbent Solih after a few candidates got eliminated at the end of the first round, and was not positioned to add much to either candidate in the second phase.
The other aspect of electoral reforms proposed by Muizzu pertains to introducing ‘simultaneous polls’ to both the presidential and parliamentary elections, the Majlis. On paper, as argued elsewhere, simultaneous elections reduce expenditure by the State, the individual candidates, and their political parties. Given the long campaign periods, there will also be time-saving measures.
This way, the nation won’t always be in election mode, and hence, immediate electoral compulsions will not cause policy-paralysis, especially on the incumbent leadership. This is technically true of the Maldives, where the parliamentary polls come about six months after the presidential election, by coincidence and not design.
However, there is a greater, rather hidden reason behind some leaders and political parties, here and elsewhere, preferring ‘simultaneous polls’. Experience elsewhere has shown that a charismatic and popular leader, albeit in office or not, can win the presidential election for himself and the party/alliance if the parliamentary polls are held alongside.
Incidentally, Muizzu and Nasheed both fancy themselves among the most charismatic and popular leaders. However, others contest this thought, whether within closed walls or otherwise. Muizzu putting down Parliament Speaker and PNC chairperson, Abdul Raheem Abdulla ‘Adhurey’ and Nasheed parting company with long-time friend and one-time political aide Ibu Solih flowed from such constructs, independent of each other.
Alongside preferential vote and simultaneous elections, Muizzu has called for the abolition of elected atoll and island councils, introduced by President Nasheed as a part of the democratised decentralisation project. In their place, Muizzu possibly wants to restore nominated bodies as they existed under President Gayoom in the pre-democracy era. Both involved rewarding loyalists at the grassroots level, though some good work was executed either way.
Going by present indications, there won’t be any atoll elections next year. Thus, a constitutional referendum (alone) serves as a popular vote-of-confidence in the incumbent mid-way through his term, ahead of the 2028 re-election bid. The incumbent has inherent institutional advantages unavailable to the other side(s).
Even without it, the mainline MDP Opposition leadership seems disheartened and the cadres demoralised, if not defeatist, per se. This became evident from the thin attendance at the week-long anti-Muizzu evening rallies in the capital, Malé, in ‘defence of democracy’ during Ramadan. Nasheed is now heading an international climate campaign, based out of Ghana, and is considered a part-time politician, despite how much he travels to the Maldives or posts his comments on social media.
There is a third face in the Opposition. However, in the light of pending court cases and un-stalled conviction and sentence, apart from a pending trial, Muizzu’s estranged political mentor, Yameen, is still not sure of being allowed to contest the next presidential poll as the last one. This is a construct that Muizzu’s adversaries seem to be missing through the current discourse, focusing on the philosophy of his proposals, whether supporting or opposing them, and not on the possible outcomes at a practical level.
N Sathiya Moorthy is a Chennai-based Policy Analyst & Political Commentator.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
N. Sathiya Moorthy is a policy analyst and commentator based in Chennai.
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