The results and still trickling trends of the just-concluded US midterm elections point to a contested Congress for the rest of President Biden’s term. While the Democrats seem poised to have gained razor-thin control of the Senate, the Republicans are likely to have a majority in the House of Representatives. The remaining run-off in the state of Georgia will be decisive in consolidating Senate control by the Democrats. As per the state law, as neither party candidate received a minimum of 50 percent of votes, Georgia will hold a run-off on 6 December this year between Senator Raphael Warnock from the Democratic party and Herschel Walker of the Republican party. Depending on who wins, the Senate could have a 51-49 count favouring the Democrats, who are supported by two independent candidates, or a 50-50 tie between the two parties. The results are seen as relatively favourable to the Democrats. Yet, if the most keenly watched state election where Lt. Gov. John Fetterman defeated his Republican counterpart Mehmet Oz was a microcosm of the political intensity that the midterm elections saw, the Democratic Representative from Ohio Tim Ryan’s loss in the Senate race to Republican J.D. Vance was the promise of continued support to the Republicans, which may well lead to politically charged national elections in 2024.

The Senate control and the lack of a total electoral sweep by the Republicans, as was being expected before the midterm elections, places the Democrats in a good position to sell their legislative agendas to the voters leading up to the presidential elections in 2024.

The 2022 midterm election has bucked a trend of anti-incumbency against the ruling party. Historically, the midterms have been known to be unfavourably poised against the ruling party’s first term, setting a stage for highly contested forthcoming national elections in the US. Despite the thin majority, the Democrats are now set to control the Senate, which marks an important gain for President Biden and his party. As the Republicans are poised to win the House, the Senate control will give the Democrats the ability to stop Republican legislations originating from the House. More importantly, the Senate control by the Democrats will allow them to confirm President Biden’s nominees and judicial appointments. Critically, the Senate control and the lack of a total electoral sweep by the Republicans, as was being expected before the midterm elections, places the Democrats in a good position to sell their legislative agendas to the voters leading up to the presidential elections in 2024. At the political level, the midterm results are being seen as a setback for Donald Trump’s leadership, the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement, and the broader Republican agenda. These put the Republican prospects of reclaiming the White House in 2024 in dim prospects.

DeSantis factor and Republican divide 

However, a silver lining which came out of the midterm elections for the Republicans has been the victory of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Although it appears too early to predict the final Republican presidential nominee for the 2024 national elections, the victory of Ron DeSantis has certainly widened possibilities for presidential nominees. Ron DeSantis has until now shown little public interest in his presidential nomination for the 2024 elections, but he is being projected as a Republican presidential candidate. A recent poll has shown that more voters prefer DeSantis as the 2024 Republican nominee. On the other hand, almost all nominees supported by former President Donald Trump have either lost or are trailing in this year’s midterm elections. For instance, Mehmet Oz lost to John Fetterman in Pennsylvania; in Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer won her second term as governor defeating Republican Tudor Dixon; in the Arizona Senate race, Blake Masters is running behind his Democratic counterpart, Mark Kelly. In the same state, the gubernatorial race between the Democratic and the Republican parties isn’t turning out favourably for the Trump-backed candidate, Kari Lake.

Former president Donald Trump has pushed DeSantis into a corner to make his political ambitions clear, ie, if he will be running for the 2024 presidential candidate of the Republican party.

A smooth victory of Ron DeSantis may well consolidate his position in the Republican Party as a leader above other contenders. Importantly, that would potentially pit him against Donald Trump as a candidate for the presidential nominee of the Republican party. The rise of Ron DeSantis is both good and bad for the Republican party. On the positive side, the Republican party may be looking for a new political resurgence and reclaiming some of its lost space in the US political spectrum due to Donald Trump. Reducing differences and maintaining internal cohesion remains a challenge within the Republican Party. If anything, the midterm elections have shown that the GOP cannot bank fully on Trump’s support. On the downside, the midterm results are likely to place Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis on a collision course, further fracturing the Republican party. Already, there are two significant developments emerging from the Republican party which do not portend a political consensus amongst its members. Former president Donald Trump has pushed DeSantis into a corner to make his political ambitions clear, ie, if he will be running for the 2024 presidential candidate of the Republican party. In another development, Trump has directed the onus of Republican midterm failures to Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader of the House. As Mitch McConnell runs into another election to keep his position as the leader of the Republicans in the House, Donald Trump has taken a public position to oust him from his position which he has held since 2007. These divisions are likely to isolate Trump in his decisions within the party as in both cases DeSantis and McConnell continue to be supported by large sections of the Republican party.

Republican control of the House 

A House controlled by the Republicans would mean that the Biden administration’s political agenda will be slowed down. Additionally, the Republicans could launch investigations on matters concerning President Biden and his family. With the control of the House, the House Oversight Committee is expected to launch an investigation on Hunter Biden, son of President Biden. The investigations could range from his connections to a Ukrainian oil company when Joe Biden was the Vice President of the country and the infamous laptop episode involving Hunter Biden, to Hunter Biden’s personal life. The Republicans hope that with these investigations they would be able to pin President Biden down. In this regard, the Republican control of the House is important because the House Oversight Committee is one of the only committees with the authority to issue subpoenas without the approval of the minority members. Besides, the House Republicans could launch investigations into the COVID-19 origins and the Biden administration’s handling of the southern borders and immigration.

The investigations could range from his connections to a Ukrainian oil company when Joe Biden was the Vice President of the country and the infamous laptop episode involving Hunter Biden, to Hunter Biden’s personal life.

Internationally, the US midterm elections were expected to be very consequential for the US support to Ukraine against Russia. A deeply divided Congress could undermine the financial and material support to Ukraine from Washington. The Republicans are expected to draw more checks and balances on the Biden administration’s war-time assistance to Ukraine, harping on a ‘no blank cheque’ strategy with their control of the House. The high inflation in the US has helped the Republicans in building a domestic narrative against continued large financial assistance to Ukraine. The mounting domestic inflationary pressure on Biden and lack of majority in the House may have been critical factors as to why the US has nudged Ukraine to resume dialogue with Russia. For the Biden administration, the House control by the Republicans may have fortunately coincided with Ukrainian gains and Russian retreat in Kherson. While the Democrats seem to have avoided a ‘Red Wave’ sweep of the Congress by the Republicans, the Congress remains divided with the Republican and Democratic parties controlling one chamber each. The post midterm season in the US is usually a bugle sound for national elections. The stage is set for high-tension national elections in 2024 in the US.

• International Affairs
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• Donald Trump
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• Joe Biden
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