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With China gaining ground, Washington’s Middle East posture deepens trust deficits in a strategically vital region.
Image Source: Getty
On the night of June 12, the Middle East’s volatile security landscape was once again shaken by Israeli warplanes striking Iran's military infrastructure and nuclear facilities. Israel was also able to eliminate high-ranking officers of the Iranian military and political spheres. This strike, however, did not go unanswered as Iran also targeted key sites in Tel Aviv and Haifa beginning the following day. Today, both sides are locked in a retaliatory cycle. While the United States (US) has attempted to distance itself from the Israel-Iran conflict, President Donald Trump’s public support for Tel Aviv’s operations has become a source of concern in different parts of the world, particularly in Southeast Asia, where Washington's image has already been under strain.
More than the actual Israel-Hamas conflict, Southeast Asian nations have expressed concern, and even dismay, over what they see as Washington’s double standards in applying international law.
The majority of Southeast Asian countries do not look at the latest security situation in the Middle East conflict in isolation, but as an extension of what has already been brewing in Palestine between Israel and Hamas. While the latter's terror attack on Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023, gave Tel Aviv the right to respond to the devastating assault, what occurred in the following months resulted in an unprecedented loss of innocent Palestinian lives. The disproportionate nature of Israel’s response led to condemnations from many Muslim-majority Southeast Asian nations, including Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei. Moreover, while Singapore initially maintained a neutral position, it has become more openly critical of Israel’s activities. For instance, in March 2024, Singaporean Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan noted that “the Israeli military response has now gone too far.” In May, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong emphasised that the Israeli military’s actions have caused a terrible humanitarian disaster.
However, more than the actual Israel-Hamas conflict, Southeast Asian nations have expressed concern, and even dismay, over what they see as Washington’s double standards in applying international law. When the International Criminal Court (ICC) judges issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his then-defense minister, Yoav Gallant, in November 2024, then US President Joe Biden condemned the decision. Therefore, for Southeast Asian nations, upholding international law remains one of the most crucial cornerstones of regional peace at a time when the very foundations of the rules-based order are coming under strain due to the escalating security configuration in the South China Sea and the intensifying US-China power competition. Consequently, in the State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey, the Israel-Hamas conflict emerged as the region’s foremost geopolitical concern, while the US witnessed a critical decline in influence, with China surpassing it as the preferred alignment choice for the region.
Today, the seeds of distrust are likely to grow, especially with the Trump administration's position on the various conflicts in the Middle East. Trump not only sanctioned members of the ICC but also went as far as to propose taking over the Gaza Strip. Such remarks and earlier statements about invading Greenland and making Canada the 51st US state have led to worries over Washington's apparent expansionist goals and tendency to undermine international law.
By looking the other way at Tel Aviv's apparent intent to eliminate Tehran's leadership, the US could be seen as a willing supporter of regime change. This is particularly controversial, given that Southeast Asian governments put a significant premium on regime survival and security.
In this regard, the current crisis between Israel and Iran is likely to constrain Washington's image in Southeast Asia further. Indonesia and Malaysia have already condemned Israel for its aggressive strikes on Iran. Moreover, by looking the other way at Tel Aviv's apparent intent to eliminate Tehran's leadership, the US could be seen as a willing supporter of regime change. This is particularly controversial, given that Southeast Asian governments put a significant premium on regime survival and security. As the US appears to disregard the principles of international law in the context of the Middle Eastern crises, China has been taking the opportunity to illustrate its support for the respect of territorial integrity and the rights of Palestinians to their land, maintaining the moral high ground.
Additionally, on the operational front, for countries like Vietnam and the Philippines—which are deeply embroiled in maritime disputes with China—there are concerns over the US’ long-term security commitments in the Western Pacific. US naval assets that were originally slated for Western Pacific deployments have already been redirected to the Middle East. This could create a further power imbalance, providing more opportunities for China to cement its position in Southeast Asia’s maritime space. Trump's recent economic policies have also not improved how the US is perceived in Southeast Asia.
On the operational front, for countries like Vietnam and the Philippines—which are deeply embroiled in maritime disputes with China—there are concerns over the US’ long-term security commitments in the Western Pacific. US naval assets that were originally slated for Western Pacific deployments have already been redirected to the Middle East.
While the US still maintains a relative material advantage in the Western Pacific, its declining image in Southeast Asia may eventually constrain its diplomatic options, limiting its capacity to operationalise its military and economic strength into a robust and sustainable foreign policy in the region. Therefore, if Washington seeks to improve its standing in Southeast Asia, it will need to develop a more nuanced understanding of the concerns of regional countries. The US must also acknowledge that the world has become increasingly interconnected—meaning that what it does in one part of the world will significantly impact how it is perceived in other parts. Thus, inconsistencies in policy and international law applications will inevitably tarnish its credibility. This becomes increasingly critical as China continues to challenge American influence in Southeast Asia.
Don McLain Gill is a Philippines-based geopolitical analyst, author, and lecturer at the Department of International Studies, De La Salle University (DLSU).
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Don McLain Gill is a Philippines-based geopolitical analyst author and lecturer at the Department of International Studies De La Salle University (DLSU). ...
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