Expert Speak Raisina Debates
Published on May 25, 2019
The fact the Afghan government is not in the negotiating room has created a circle of uncertainty among the political elite.
Is the Afghan peace process going anywhere? The Afghanistan peace process is faltering. The six rounds of talks led by US Representative Zalmay Khalilzad have only emboldened the Taliban and given the group undue legitimacy while undermining the elected government in Kabul. Questions are being raised if Khalilzad in his eagerness to be the next Richard Holbrooke – the US diplomat who crafted the Dayton peace accords to end the war in Bosnia – may have overestimated and then oversold his relationship with the Taliban and his ability to get Pakistan to play an honest role. Pakistan had apparently promised Khalilzad that a ceasefire would be in place by January but the promise was not kept, leaving the US negotiator in a lurch. Nothing remotely resembling a ceasefire is evident, not even during Ramzaan. The Pakistanis are playing dumb – while they may have released certain Taliban leaders, Rawalpindi has done nothing to ensure a fair outcome. Why? Because the Pakistan army doesn’t want one and is doing everything in its power to undermine the process. United States is being challenged by the Taliban not just on the battlefield but also in Kabul. The May 8 attack on the US-funded NGO, Counterpart International, which killed nine people and wounded 20 others, was nothing but a dare. It sent shock waves throughout Washington. United States is being challenged by the Taliban not just on the battlefield but also in Kabul. Reports of Taliban’s barbaric acts against women continue to filter in despite their promises in Doha meeting rooms to respect women. The question for US negotiators is simply this – do they truly believe that the Taliban would stray far from their core ideology? A leopard doesn’t change its spots. The Donald Trump administration is reportedly reassessing the progress reported by Khalilzad, especially as the criticism of his negotiating strategy continues to grow from various Afghan groups. Kabul says it’s playing chess in the dark. Khalilzad may have erroneously overplayed Trump’s desire to withdraw troops, which instead of extracting concessions from the Taliban only made them more intransigent.  Trump no doubt wants a deal but one in which the Taliban would be granted some form of inclusion in a future political dispensation, in exchange for ending the war. What he doesn’t want is a deal which leaves the Taliban as a dominant force. Trump no doubt wants a deal but one in which the Taliban would be granted some form of inclusion in a future political dispensation, in exchange for ending the war. What he doesn’t want is a deal which leaves the Taliban as a dominant force.  It’s clear that the Taliban are not willing to negotiate in good faith to end the war or honor the wishes of the thousands of Afghans belonging to different parts of society who attended the recent Loya Jirga held through April 29-May 3. Khalilzad’s negotiating strategy seems to have sent the wrong signal – one of desperation, which the Taliban leaders have read as victory. So high is their confidence – they fly around in ISI planes -- and so malleable the US stand, no one thought it fit to raise objections to the Taliban calling themselves the ‘Islamic Emirate’ and issuing press statements in that name. Khalilzad’s negotiating strategy seems to have sent the wrong signal – one of desperation, which the Taliban leaders have read as victory. Gone are the days when the US supported Kabul in objecting to the Taliban using symbols of statehood to avoid giving the terrorists any form of legitimacy. In 2013, former Afghan president Hamid Karzai called off talks with Washington on a security agreement, when he heard that the Taliban had flown their flag when their “political office” in Doha was inaugurated. Washington leaned on Qatar to fix the problem. Qatar, once again, is playing a mysterious game and the Ghani government is ambivalent towards Doha. Ideally Kabul would like the talks to shift to another venue. At this stage, it appears as though the Taliban are doing more of the fighting and the US more of the talking, as a former diplomat so pithily noted at a recent conference. Resentment is rising in Afghanistan, not just among government officials but also among Ghani’s critics and competitors. They can see that if the Taliban won’t show respect to the government of the day, it is unlikely that the regressive group would honor a future government which so many of Ghani’s rivals are hoping to join. Resentment is rising in Afghanistan, not just among government officials but also among Ghani’s critics and competitors. The fact the Afghan government is not in the negotiating room has created a circle of uncertainty among the political elite. It’s become a catch-22 situation – many are jockeying for positions in case the current government is completely sidelined and therefore they are not supporting Ghani. While it’s short-sighted, it is not surprising. The Ghani government has continued to express its deep anger and frustration over being kept out, most recently through its ambassador in Washington, Roya Rahmani, an articulate diplomat. The fact that Rahmani is the first woman ambassador of her country in the US capital is a message to both the Trump Administration and the Taliban. She recently provided graphic details of the Loya Jirga which was attended by 3,200 Afghans, including women, tribal elders, members of provincial councils, academics, artists, athletes, Hindus, Sikhs and representatives of the Afghan diaspora. The fact that Rahmani is the first woman ambassador of her country in the US capital is a message to both the Trump Administration and the Taliban. Surely, the large number of Afghans who came for the Loya Jirga should have a say in how their future is decided. Their 23-point declaration called on the Taliban to declare an “immediate and permanent ceasefire,” open direct negotiations with the Afghan government, honor the Constitution and preserve the rights of women and minorities, their right to education and freedom of expression. Significantly, the assembly has given the go ahead to amend the Constitution, if necessary, but only through appropriate mechanisms. There is much in the declaration about accommodating the Taliban but is the Pakistan-backed leadership willing to do so? And more importantly, can Khalilzad change the sequencing of the peace process to regain the upper hand? If the US exits prematurely, Afghanistan could turn into another Iraq when large parts of the Iraq army collapsed in the face of the Islamic State group.
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Contributor

Seema Sirohi

Seema Sirohi

Seema Sirohi is a columnist based in Washington DC. She writes on US foreign policy in relation to South Asia. Seema has worked with several ...

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