Can India’s Africa strategy hold up against global competitors in shaping a strong partnership?
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“Longstanding”, “deep-seated”, “shared interests”, “common aspirations”, “solidarity”, “natural partner”, and “historical” are some of the most commonly used words to describe India’s relations with Africa. India’s G20 presidency was marked by the entry of the African Union as a permanent member of the G20, an elite global platform which undertook economic decisions which affected millions of Africans, yet Africans had no say in it. Prime Minister Modi was hailed for his personal efforts in AU’s inclusion into the G20 through phone calls to the heads of states of several G20 countries. India’s efforts were in line with its abiding support for a greater role for Africa in global platforms and its objective of using its G20 presidency to prioritise the concerns of the Global South. Earlier, Prime Minister Modi, in his address to the Ugandan Parliament had announced that Africa would be “at the top of India’s priorities”. Recently, India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar’s speech at the Africa Day celebrations echoed similar emotions of solidarity and reiteration of India’s commitment to not just Africa, but all Africans, i.e. every man, woman, and child in Africa.
India’s efforts were in line with its abiding support for a greater role for Africa in global platforms and its objective of using its G20 presidency to prioritise the concerns of the Global South.
India’s strong political commitment to Africa has also been matched by closer economic ties between India and Africa. India is currently Africa’s third-largest trade partner next to European Union (EU) and China, and the value of two-way trade between India and Africa is estimated at about US$82.1 billion. Indian investments in Africa have also grown rapidly in recent years, and India is the tenth-largest investor in Africa in terms of FDI stock. India’s development cooperation has also expanded rapidly since the early 2000s, and African countries have been major beneficiaries of India’s lines of credit programme. Although China leads the way in the infrastructure sector, Chinese financing for African infrastructure has decelerated dramatically in recent years. Infrastructure development has emerged as an important feature of India’s development partnership with Africa. So far, India has completed 206 projects in 43 African countries, and 65 projects are under construction, with a total expenditure of about US$ 12.4 billion. India also makes significant contributions to build African capacity through its ITEC programme, scholarships, and institution-building in the continent.
While India has done a lot to bring Africa into focus, is India Africa’s favoured partner? It is true that India enjoys tremendous goodwill in the African continent for its age-old solidarity, but does it have enough leverage? These are difficult questions to answer, especially in the context of all major global powers vying for influence in the region. However, the inability to hold the fourth India-Africa Summit even after 9 years of successfully hosting the third India-Africa Forum Summit in New Delhi, is a reflection of India’s lack of influence in Africa. The COVID-19 pandemic and election schedules have often been cited as the main reasons behind the inordinate delay in holding the India-Africa Forum Summit. However, the African Union has held several summits with other partners like China (2021), Türkiye (2021), EU(2022), United States (US) (2022), Japan (2022), and Russia (2023) in recent years. The Forum for China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) 2024 summit is scheduled for September 2024. India is not at the top of Africa’s priorities.
While India acted deftly during the pandemic with its Vaccine Maitri programme and came to Africa’s aid through its medical diplomacy and food shipments, and has scaled up its development cooperation in Africa.
Indian leadership takes immense pride in India’s development initiatives in Africa, but is India just an also-ran in Africa’s development landscape? What exactly is the impact of India’s development initiatives in Africa? While India acted deftly during the pandemic with its Vaccine Maitri programme and came to Africa’s aid through its medical diplomacy and food shipments, and has scaled up its development cooperation in Africa, there may be a need to change India’s approach to Africa in the context of the dramatic changes that are taking place in the continent.
Figure 1: Sub-Saharan Africa’s real GDP growth rate (2010 to 2022)
Source: Estimates based on World Bank Data
Much has changed in Africa in recent years. Most African countries are struggling with multiple shocks, beginning with the commodity price shock in 2015, followed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia war which skyrocketed energy, food, and fertiliser prices. Africa’s GDP growth rates have plummeted in recent years (Figure 1). As per the UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2024, FDI inflows to Africa fell by 3 percent in 2023. Except for Southern Africa, all regions of Africa experienced a decline in FDI inflows in 2023. Development gains of the previous years have been lost, and the SDGs seem completely out of reach. Africa is also facing severe security challenges with about 35 non-international armed conflicts which have displaced and killed millions of people.
Given the current scenario, there is a pressing need for a change in India’s approach in Africa. The Indian side should push for holding the fourth India-Africa Forum Summit as soon as possible. The fourth India-Africa Summit should also spell out the future agenda for partnership keeping in mind India and Africa’s development challenges, aspirations, and young and youthful population. While the continuity in India-Africa discourse may be warranted, too much emphasis on historical relations and solidarity may not be working for India. India must try to spell out a forward-looking agenda for partnership between India and Africa which meets the expectations of the combined population of about 2.8 billion Indian and African people.
While capacity building has been the bedrock of India’s partnership with Africa, both India and Africa now need a comprehensive strategy to harness their large youth populations through greater investments in health, nutrition, education, and training in the coming decades, especially in the context of ageing populations in the West.
The fourth India-Africa Forum Summit should work towards formulating a shared strategy for human capital and technology for development. Technical cooperation has been the foundation of India-Africa development partnership since the 1960s and 1970s. However, it is now time to draw up a detailed roadmap of how India and Africa can forge closer ties to employ technology for development. India and Africa should pool their strengths and learn from each other’s experiences to address complex development challenges. Building a skilled labour force is a critical requirement for this to be possible. Again, while capacity building has been the bedrock of India’s partnership with Africa, both India and Africa now need a comprehensive strategy to harness their large youth populations through greater investments in health, nutrition, education, and training in the coming decades, especially in the context of ageing populations in the West. To put it simply, some more words need to be thrown in than just the ones listed in the beginning of this article. Is anyone listening?
Malancha Chakrabarty is Senior Fellow and Deputy Director (Research) at the Observer Research Foundation
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Dr Malancha Chakrabarty is Senior Fellow and Deputy Director (Research) at the Observer Research Foundation where she coordinates the research centre Centre for New Economic ...
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