Expert Speak Raisina Debates
Published on May 08, 2018
It is yet another unnerving week in the Middle East. What happens if Trump does not give a nod to the deal?
Iran deal: War games in the Middle East Dwarfed by towering mounds of ‘evidence’ surreptitiously procured with the intention of taking down Iran, Benjamin Netanyahu appeared on a set stage last week. “Tonight, we are going to reveal new and conclusive proof of the secret nuclear weapons programme that Iran has been hiding for years from the international community in its secret atomic archive,” he said. Promising a revelation, Netanyahu wrenched the curtain of a cabinet packed with files and another with CDs gleaming at the cameras. “Iran lied,” he told the assembled journalists flamboyantly, a personality trait he has often displayed. To reinforce his point, he played old interview clips of Iranian President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif professing Iran’s moral abhorrence towards nuclear weapons and clarifying that Iran has never had an ambition to have a nuclear weapons programme. With the aim of questioning the premise of the nuclear deal and in effect casting a doubt on its validity, Netanyahu presented the colour⎯coded files and CDs stacked with a bureaucratic precision as the indisputable proof of Iran’s lies. He boasted about Israeli intelligence agency pilfering the 100,000 plus files stashed away in a warehouse in Iran, purportedly containing the knowhow of making nuclear arsenal. But, neither did this ‘proof’ come across as new, nor did it present anything suggesting Iran has violated the nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA. Mr. Netanyahu’s half⎯hour performance left the journalists and experts befuddled for a while. They cried out, “What was the revelation? This has been known to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).” The IAEA has been aware of Iran’s feasibility and scientific studies aimed at the production of nuclear weapons. It shared this information with the US prior to signing of the Iran nuclear deal. There is a broad consensus among international observers that Iran has abided by the text of the agreement. Despite the theatrics, Mr. Netanyahu failed in providing anything that would indicate otherwise. Nonetheless, chances are that he has succeeded in convincing one man who holds the key to the continuation of the hard⎯fought accord.

There is a broad consensus among international observers that Iran has abided by the text of the agreement. Despite the theatrics, Mr. Netanyahu failed in providing anything that would indicate otherwise.


On 12 May, American President Donald J. Trump is scheduled to give his decision on whether the US will stick to the status⎯quo or revoke the deal and reimpose the debilitating sanctions on Iran. It is yet another unnerving week in the Middle East. What happens if Trump does not give a nod to the deal? Beside Trump replacing Obama, what has changed in the region? What has resulted in an intensified rhetoric between the US and Iran? Is the region heading to its next war?

From Obama to Trump Bolten and Pompeo

On 14 July 2015, US plus P5 — Germany, France, Russia, China and the UK agreed with Iran on a nuclear deal under which Iran would forgo its nuclear weapons programme and give international observers access to conduct inspections. In return, sanctions crippling Iran’s economy were lifted. The agreement was the result of taxing negotiations over a 20⎯month long period. President Obama was the driver of the deal and thought it would make the world a safer place. Further, the deal was seen as an attempt to bridge the power difference between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran in the Islamic world, dominated by Riyadh. President Obama had taken a hard view on the policies of America’s Wahabi ally, especially of pushing for Wahabi ideology, adopted by extremists in several parts of the world.

In 2015, when the deal was agreed upon, it was a different Middle East. Over the years much has changed.


Mr. Obama had a trying relationship with Mr. Netanyahu and favoured the Palestinians on the issue of illegal Israeli settlements in Palestine. Having lost preferential treatment, the Saudis and the Israelis were cringing. They could do little, until Obama left office. In 2015, when the deal was agreed upon, it was a different Middle East. Over the years much has changed. Tehran’s support for Syrian President Bashar al⎯Assad, also backed by the Russians, helped Iran in entrenching itself in Syria. The Iranians already had a strong base in Iraq as they had been funding and training Shia militia groups in conflict⎯ridden Iraq for over a decade. Iranian revolutionary guard’s proxy, the Hezbollah, too was firmly in control in Lebanon and had expanded in Syria by fighting for Assad. The ‘arc of influence’ that Iran envisaged from Tehran — through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon — was now near completion. In effect, it meant Iran could go forth and pursue its goals to be a hegemon in the Muslim world — to push the ideas of its Islamic revolution, and to achieve its economic and geostrategic goals. Why is that a problem for Israel? Because Iran does not recognise Israel and calls for its death? The ‘arc of influence’ is detrimental to Israel’s security because it gives Iran the advantage of easily transporting men and equipment in the case of a war between Iran and Israel through its proxies in Lebanon — and now Iraq and Syria. This expansion was also a cause of concern for the Saudis who were engaged with Iran in a war of dominance over the region, post Ayatollah Khomenie’s resurgence in 1979.

The ‘arc of influence’ is detrimental to Israel’s security because it gives Iran the advantage of easily transporting men and equipment in the case of a war between Iran and Israel through its proxies in Lebanon — and now Iraq and Syria.

As the Saudi supported groups lost out in Syria and it became clear that Assad will win, panic in Riyadh and Tel Aviv intensified. Trump’s unexpected ascension to power brought relief to America’s old allies. A large sum of his election campaign was funded by pro⎯Israeli lobby. One among the staunchly pro⎯Israeli Americans was business tycoon Sheldon Adelson who flushed Trump’s campaign with millions of dollars. Reports in the US press suggested that one of the rewards Mr. Adelson expected in the quid⎯pro⎯quo was the shift of the American embassy from Tel Aviv to the holy city of Jerusalem. Trump delivered. Never mind the chaos this move could bring about in the Middle East. The controversial American President also reversed Obama’s Middle East policy and went straight in Saudi arms. The Saudis and the Israelis had a common enemy in Iran and with Trump; they had their strongest partner, the US, fervently back in their corner. Trump brought in three actors. His inexperienced son⎯in⎯law Jared Kushner, who was tasked with bonding with the Saudi crown prince Mohamad bin⎯Salman and two hawks — National Security Advisor John R. Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Both are perceived to be vehemently anti⎯Iran. Efforts to contain Iran picked up. Cooperation between Saudis and Israelis was out in the open. The two had started mingling much earlier, but the extent of the openness of the Saudis to collaborate with Israel, even if to take on Iran, was kept hidden. It was so that the Arabs did not see the Sunni leader of the world in cahoots, with the occupier of Palestinian lands. Towards the end of the Syrian war, the rhetoric from Trump’s team got sharper. Israel started conducting regular attacks on Iranian assets in Syria. According to the The New York Times, Saudi Crown prince Mohamad bin Salman seemed ready to give Israelis a better deal in the Palestinian conflict. All the signals indicate that by the end of this week, Trump will walk out of the deal. He will ask for changes as a pretext to ensure Iran is never able to produce a nuke. But these will not be heeded by Iran’s hardliners. The Middle East is nervous. Iran has dared the US of ‘historic regret’ if the deal is undone. What will, or rather, what can it do? Will Trump’s decision push the region into yet another violent conflict?

All the signals indicate that by the end of this week, Trump will walk out of the deal. He will ask for changes as a pretext to ensure Iran is never able to produce a nuke. But these will not be heeded by Iran’s hardliners.


US, Israel, Saudi Arabia versus Iran, Syria and Lebanon

Iranians say that they are ‘ready with their plans’ in case Trump does the expected. Let us consider some of the actions Iran can take. First, there is a chance it may restart its nuclear programme. No one has seriously ever bought Iran’s claim that it didn’t want a nuclear weapon and hence the deal — which allows for checks to ensure it doesn’t — was welcomed by most countries in the world, including the EU. Second, Iran may choose to respond to Israel in the proxy battleground of Syria. It can aim its missiles at the Israel⎯occupied Syrian territory of Golan Heights, and back up the offensive with attack on the ground (against anti⎯Assad rebel groups supported by Israel). Tel Aviv has further extended its buffer zone in the occupied territory by coopting some of these rebel groups by providing them with medical aid, and allegedly, financial help. Although there is question mark over Iran’s military prowess when compared to Israel, in possession of superior air defence systems, Israel is fully capable of shooting down Iranian missiles in the air. A response from Iran is exactly what the Israelis are egging it for. They will fire back on several of the Iranian assets in Syria even more ferociously than they have done so far. They may expand the war and take it to Lebanon. After Hezbollah’s gains in the Lebanese elections, Israeli politicians have said that Hezbollah equals to Lebanon, which means Israel will not just attack areas dominated by Hezbollah supporters, but anywhere in the country.

A response from Iran is exactly what the Israelis are egging it for. They will fire back on several of the Iranian assets in Syria even more ferociously than they have done so far. They may expand the war and take it to Lebanon.


In turn, Hezbollah will hit back and its broader strategy would be to bring Israel on its doorsteps in Lebanon as it finds itself stronger in familiar territory. In the 2006 war between Israel and Lebanon, there were no clear winners; yet, Israel was seen as losing because of the relative success of the Hezbollah. Read | Lebanon elections: Hezbollah, Hariri and the civil society It is equally possible that Iran waits for another day to respond, and picks up a target in the West. Rouhani’s comments hint at a more sinister plot to make the US regret its decision. Some experts in the region point out that Iran may not respond in any way and have the EU do its bidding. Germany, France and the UK have backed the deal. Over the last few weeks, Macron and Merkel have urged Donald Trump to revise his view. A Hezbollah insider based in Lebanon spoke to the author on the condition of anonymity and said, “The Iranians have a long memory and they won’t do anything now. They will wait for Trump’s exit and a new president in America.”

Rationale ahead

Iran’s domestic economy is in shambles and the government is encumbered with severe criticism for not delivering on its promises. Albeit limited, the nuclear deal opened up Iran to transact with the world and enabled it to collect its oil revenues. An end to it may lead Iran to the dark side. The leadership may use an anti⎯West narrative to garner domestic support. While Israel thinks it is better to clip Iran’s expanding wings now than later, a confrontation would be mutually disastrous. There is no smart rationale for Donald Trump to obey Israel’s red line of containing Iran in Syria and Saudi desire to halt its growth in the region either. But from the looks of it, the Saudi, Israeli and American bloc has made up its mind. If what seems inevitable occurs, they will fight Iran with all their might, Iran will respond in more unconventional ways. A war can only be avoided if Iran waits for a change of President in the US.
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