Interpreting the unprecedented political transition in Sudan

The transitional government of Sudan headed by Gen. Abdel Fattah al Burhan from the military side and led by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok from the civilian side, in an unprecedented move, decided to separate religion from the state on the 4 September, 2020 after signing an agreement with Abdel Aziz Adam al Hulu, leader of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM)-North faction, at Addis Ababa. With this decision, nobody will be discriminated on the basis of religion and there will be no official religion in the state of Sudan. Particularly, the Christian minority, in principle, will be saved from religious persecution. Just four days before this development, on the 31 August, 2020, through mediation of the South Sudanese leader Salva Kir, a peace agreement was initialled between the transitional government of Sudan and Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF), an umbrella organisation of five rebel groups, at Juba (South Sudan) to end fighting in Darfur region in the west and Blue Nile and South Kordofan in the south of Sudan. However, the Darfur based SPLM-North faction and Blue Nile and South Krodofan based Sudanese Liberation Army (SLA) led by Abdel Wahid Al Nur were not a part of the deal as it did not meet their demands. The immediate significance of these two significant developments in Sudan and its adjacent regions could be interpreted thus.

In general, the political processes as well as the regimes in the areas such as West Asia, North Africa and Northeast Africa are characterised by the pre-eminence of Islam as an ideology. There are regimes characterised by autocracy (Syria), monarchy (Saudi Arabia, Gulf Emirates) and theocracy (Iran). In the midst of such surroundings, Sudan has emerged as an unconventional state on several counts. First, Sudan has overthrown an autocratic regime led by Omar al Bashir, a brutal military dictator, that governed it from 1989-2019. Second, the Bashir regime was replaced initially by transitional government in April 2019. Later, the new regime led by the Transitional Sovereign Council, constituted in August 2019, formally committed itself to ensure Sudan’s transition from military to civilian regime in 39 months. Third, Sudan is a major African state known for its socially plural settings involving religious and regional diversities. However, in spite of the religious diversities, it functioned as Islamic state by overlooking the rights of religious minorities for three decades. Such diversities needed to find self-expression. Consequently, and as a corollary, the 11 member Sovereign Council jointly constituted by military and civilian rulers of the transitional government has one representative who is a Coptic Christian, a community that constitutes half a million of the Sudanese population. Besides, there is a female foreign affairs cabinet minister for the first time since women had played a major role in a pro-democracy protest movement.

In the midst of such surroundings, Sudan has emerged as an unconventional state on several counts.

Finally, ever since its independence in 1956, the question of national integration has continued haunt Sudan because it witnessed protracted and violent two civil wars (1955-72, 1983-2005) between the northern and southern parts of the country. Sudan was literally devastated due to loss of thousands of human lives, property and outflow of refugees towards neighbouring countries. The conflict culminated in referendum that liberated South Sudan in July 2011 from Sudan. Nevertheless, areas such as Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan have been witnessing insurgencies challenging the governmental authority. According to UN estimates, since the rebels took to arms in 2003, roughly 300,000 people have lost their lives in Darfur. The Blue Nile and Kordofan regions also witnessed insurgency after 2011. Fortunately, the peace agreement signed at Juba plans to address issues related to power sharing, land ownership, security, displacements, justice and integration of rebels into Sudanese army. It proposes to constitute joint military force within 90 days of 12,000 personnel from among the rebels and regular army to protect civilians in Darfur. It also conceives of granting three seats to rebels in 14 member Sovereign Council, accommodate 25 percent of the rebel groups in the council of ministers offer 75 seats to rebel groups in transitional legislature. So far, the peace deal has been welcomed by the United States (US), United Kingdom (UK), European Union (EU) the Norway and the United Nations African Mission in Darfur (UNAMID). In fact, in August 2019, the Sudanese regime had already requested for planned withdrawal of the UNAMID, deployed since 2007, by 30 June 2020 from Darfur. However, implementation of peace agreement through imaginative federal arrangements in an inclusive democratic set up will continue be a daunting task before the government.

The current Sudanese regime appears like a queer mélange of the military and fragile coalition of multiple parties that represent the so called Forces of Freedom and Change. It is also backed by organisations within the civil society including trade unions, intellectuals and bodies like Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA). While handling insurgencies as well as patronage based and anaemic Sudanese economy it will be constrained to negotiate with the baggage of the immediate past.

Sudan was literally devastated due to loss of thousands of human lives, property and outflow of refugees towards neighbouring countries.

For instance, during its initial decade (1989-99) the Bashir regime was perceived as protégé of Hassan al Turabi and was guided by Islamic ideology. Turabi dreamed of leading a Pan Arab Islamic resistance and had hosted Osama bin Laden for five years before he was expelled in 1996 from Sudan. Following the differences with Turabi, Bashir dismissed him as a speaker of the parliament in 1999. Bashir could deftly handle the transition in South Sudan. However, while handling insurgency in Darfur which began in 2003, he began to lose grip over military which ceased to have a unified command as the security establishment was plagued with internecine conflicts.

In fact, while handling the Darfur crisis, the Bashir regime depended on Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that was formed with the remnants of Janjaweed Militia led by Muhammad Hamdan Daglo or Hamedti. Janjaweed and later the RSF had suppressed protests in Darfur through state sponsored slaughter. Hemedti had ancestral links with the eastern Chad that he could invoke frequently. He built himself as a leader of rural Sudan and struck alliances with armed groups in the Central African Republic (CAR) and South Sudanese rebel Riek Machar. The RSF, during 2017, along with the Sudanese army, was involved in Saudi Arabia backed operation that tried to create a buffer zone in northern Yemen. A provincial warlord like Hemedti sprang up as non-conventional military entrepreneur owing to his enormous economic, social and diplomatic clout. He became Deputy Head of the Transitional Military Council (TMC) after Bashir was overthrown in 2019. Thanks to the emergence of Hemedti, the military somewhere lost its unified command. For instance, Hemedti agreed to send 1200 mercenaries at the request of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to Libyan frontlines to extend support to Khalifa Haftar’s ongoing war in southern Tripoli and Sirte in the Libyan civil war in May 2020. In a word the current transition process will always be influenced by the likes of Hemedti.

The current Sudanese regime appears like a queer mélange of the military and fragile coalition of multiple parties that represent the so called Forces of Freedom and Change.

However, there are a few silver linings too. For instance, apart from its resources such as petroleum, gold, silver, copper, iron ore and zinc, Sudan is sandwiched between Egypt and Ethiopia abutting the Red Sea. Political instability in Sudan can affect the entire north and northeast Africa as well as the West Asian region. Obviously, the neighbouring states are keenly watching developments in Sudan. When the TMC regime suppressed the protests for the civilian takeover of the Sudanese regime on the 3 June 2019 brutally, the African Union (AU) had suspended Sudan’s membership of the AU until the establishment of effective civilian led transitional authority. Besides, Bashir was tried and penalised for two years but the agenda of the rebel groups will be implemented completely when the Sudanese authorities hand him over to International Criminal Court (ICC). In the meanwhile, the Shariat inspired public order act of 1992 which was used for moral policing of clothing of women or drinking was dispensed with in Sudan. The government, indeed, has embraced an agenda of social reforms. Further, Hamdock has already approached international donor agencies to obtain amount worth $10 billion in the next two years to revive Sudanese economy. While a sizable proportion of the people of Darfur are facing grave challenges stemming from food insecurity, health care and displacement, the regions like Blue Nile and South Kordofan require substantial humanitarian assistance.

Efforts are also under way to lift sanctions and drop Sudan from the list of state-sponsor terror from the US’s list.

Sudan in the 1990s was acting like a vanguard of the Islamic world by giving asylum to Al Qaeda and sheltering infamous terrorists such as Carlos de Jackal on its soil. It was designated as terrorist state in 1993 and faced severe sanctions till 2017. Efforts are also under way to lift sanctions and drop Sudan from the list of state-sponsor terror from the US’s list. To attain this goal, Sudan is being prompted by the US to offer de jure recognition to Israel. Moreover, Sudan appointed its ambassador to the US after almost a quarter of a century in May 2020.

To conclude, interpreting the currently ongoing and complex process of transition, with all its national, regional and global implications is riddled with hopes of new era of democracy as well as fears of increasingly dominant role of Bashir’s erstwhile allies like the RSF led by Hemedti.

• Privacy & Data Protection
• Africa
• West Asia
• Central African Republic
• Sudan
• Sudanese Liberation Army
• United Nations African Mission in Darfur

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