Kashmir’s conflict has shifted from visible militancy to hidden networks—digital propaganda, facilitators, and community actors sustaining insurgency. India must counter with precision, trust, and ecosystem-wide strategies.
Over the past ten years, Jammu and Kashmir's conflict landscape has experienced significant structural change. Once characterised by armed militants, territorial control, and sporadic violence, the insurgency has changed into a much more diffuse and adaptable conflict ecosystem. This new paradigm is not just an extension of militancy; rather, it is a mutation that can be characterised as ecosystem warfare, in which a variety of actors—both visible and invisible—operate across digital, ideological, and physical domains. Visible actors are people whose identities and actions are obvious, like militants who carry weapons in public. Invisible actors, on the other hand, operate covertly in the digital and ideological spheres, hiding their identities and influencing others without being physically present.
This new paradigm is not just an extension of militancy; rather, it is a mutation that can be characterised as ecosystem warfare, in which a variety of actors—both visible and invisible—operate across digital, ideological, and physical domains.
Stakeholder diversification is at the heart of this change. Conventional militant groups like Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) are no longer limited to recruiting jungle militants or foot soldiers. Rather, they are developing a multi-layered support architecture that consists of socially embedded facilitators, digital propagandists, and educated professionals. This change has greatly increased insurgent networks' adaptability, resilience, and operational reach. Large-scale militant encounters have steadily declined in recent years, according to data from Indian security agencies, yet overground worker (OGW) networks, instances of digital radicalisation, and financial facilitation channels have expanded in parallel. This suggests that although the visible level of violence may vary, the underlying ecosystem supporting insurgency has become increasingly complex, entrenched, and systemic.
The rise of a white-collar insurgency is among the most notable aspects of the evolving conflict in Jammu and Kashmir. People with professional backgrounds, such as physicians, engineers, IT specialists, and academics, are increasingly being recruited by organisations like JeM to support operations. These actors, in contrast to traditional militants, keep spotless public profiles, which makes detection much more challenging. A strategic recalibration is reflected in this trend. Militant groups improve their logistical and technological capabilities while lowering their operational visibility by integrating their members into legitimate social and economic structures. For example, sophisticated financial transactions, drone-based surveillance, and encrypted communication platforms all require technical know-how that traditional militant cadres frequently lack. This gap is filled when educated professionals are included, turning insurgent groups into hybrid organisations that can function in a variety of fields.
The region has seen a sharp rise in content takedown requests and cyber-monitoring operations in recent years, which is indicative of the growing significance of information warfare.
Another critical arena is now the digital sphere. Social media platforms are used by narrative managers, who frequently work anonymously, to create and share carefully chosen narratives. These narratives, especially those based in Islamist identity politics, are intended to bring local complaints in line with larger global discourses. These narratives sometimes present militancy as a legitimate form of resistance, while at other times they present local actors as defenders of identity and faith rather than violent participants. At other times, they portray the logistical, ideological, and digital support of overground workers as a shared community duty, normalising and legitimising their role. Every administrative action—whether it has to do with development, security, or governance—is reframed as proof of systematic oppression, which feeds outrage and mobilisation cycles. The region has seen a sharp rise in content takedown requests and cyber-monitoring operations in recent years, which is indicative of the growing significance of information warfare. Additionally, the quick virality of content—which is frequently enhanced by diaspora networks—ensures that local content rapidly gains international recognition, putting pressure on state institutions. This ecosystem with many stakeholders is naturally robust. Because roles are decentralised, the network as a whole is not always disrupted when one component, like a militant commander, is neutralised. Rather, the ecosystem continues to function while adapting and redistributing its functions.
The digital sphere has become a focal point of ecosystem warfare in the context of Jammu and Kashmir, where narratives are created, challenged, and weaponised with serious strategic intent. By 2026, this digital sphere will be intricately linked to the operations of overground worker (OGW) networks, which increasingly serve as bridges between the realities on the ground and their digital representation, rather than being a peripheral aspect of insurgency. In order to reframe local incidents—from security operations to administrative decisions—into emotionally charged narratives of grievance and resistance, OGWs and loosely affiliated sympathisers are essential. To maximise their psychological and political impact, these narratives are rarely spontaneous; instead, they are carefully timed, edited, and amplified. They frequently gain quick traction on social media platforms. This decentralised digital activity makes it possible for the narrative to function without a clear command structure, which makes response mechanisms less efficient and attribution challenging. Additionally, real-time information flows made possible by the incorporation of digital tools into OGW networks enable coordination, evasion, and mobilisation in ways not possible with traditional insurgent models. As a result, there is a feedback loop where on-the-ground developments are simultaneously shaped by their expected digital afterlife, while digital narratives reinforce sentiments at the ground level. The conflict's scope has been greatly broadened by this convergence of physical and virtual spaces, which has turned it into an ongoing process of perception management in which legitimacy—rather than just territory—becomes the main object of contestation.
The conflict's scope has been greatly broadened by this convergence of physical and virtual spaces, which has turned it into an ongoing process of perception management in which legitimacy—rather than just territory—becomes the main object of contestation.
The transition to ecosystem warfare in Jammu and Kashmir has presented India with a set of strategic challenges that are essentially distinct from those presented by previous insurgency phases. The conflict has become a highly dispersed and decentralised system due to the presence of numerous stakeholders, including armed militants, overground workers (OGWs), digital actors, and embedded facilitators. Because the distinction between combatants and civilians is becoming hazier, this diversification makes it more difficult to identify adversaries. In particular, OGWs function in the background of daily life, facilitating coordination, communication, and logistics without explicitly disclosing their roles. Consequently, conventional intelligence and surveillance systems have limitations and frequently have trouble differentiating between regular civilian activity and covert support functions. The risk of excessive force or misidentification could alienate local populations and unintentionally strengthen the very ecosystem India is trying to dismantle.
This ambiguity imposes significant operational constraints. Therefore, the strategic challenge is not only to neutralise threats but also to do so in a politically sensitive and socially dense environment with precision and restraint. Stakeholder diversification has, on a larger scale, improved insurgent networks' adaptability and resilience, making them less susceptible to traditional counterinsurgency strategies that depend on attacking leadership or upending organisational hierarchies. With the help of overground workers (OGWs) and other facilitators, the ecosystem's decentralised structure guarantees that operations will continue even after militant operatives are eliminated.
This leads to a situation where tactical victories do not always result in strategic advantages. It therefore calls for a change in India's strategy from one that is solely focused on security to one that incorporates;
India needs to adopt an all-encompassing ecosystem-based strategy that tackles the digital, social, and ideological aspects of conflict rather than a purely kinetic, security-centric approach. The emphasis should go beyond militants to covert facilitators, overground networks, and narrative builders. Operations must prioritise accuracy, credibility, and community trust. It is now crucial to integrate social engagement, information control, and governance. In the end, the difficulty lies not only in eliminating individual insurgency nodes but also in upsetting the entire ecosystem without exacerbating social divisions. The success of India's response will depend on its capacity to adjust to a conflict that is now characterised by its persistence within the social and informational fabric rather than just by outward confrontation. In this way, the ability of strategy to change as quickly as the ecosystem it aims to combat will determine the future course of stability in the region.
Tehmeena Rizvi is a senior research analyst and PhD scholar at Bennett University. She specialises in Women, Peace, and Security (South Asia), focusing on the intersection of conflict, gender, and security policies with a research focus on the Kashmir region, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.
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Tehmeena Rizvi is a Senior Fellow at Bluekraft Digital Foundation and a PhD scholar at Bennett University (Times Group). Her research focuses on Women, Peace, ...
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