Global powers are militarising space through ASAT weapons and spy satellites. India lags with its modest DefSpace efforts and risks vulnerability without scaling up ISR and defences.
At the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 22 February 2022, it hacked into Viasat’s KA-SAT system, satellite communications in Ukraine. This not only disrupted Ukraine’s ability to communicate with troops during the invasion, but also affected thousands of connections across Europe. Earlier this month, a Kremlin-linked spy spacecraft intercepted Europe’s satellite signals. According to the Financial Times, European security officials believe that two Russian space vehicles have intercepted the communications from a dozen key satellites over the continent. Over the past three years, amid escalating tensions between the West and Moscow, Russian space vehicles have frequently shadowed European satellites. These vehicles have approached close to geostationary satellites positioned over 35,000 km above Earth to support regional communication. As of now, they are believed to have only intercepted unencrypted, though sensitive communications, but they demonstrate Russia’s potential to take down and damage such a system in the event of war.
Global powers are seeing space as the future battlefield. Space is essential for modern warfare, given the importance of satellites for situational awareness and communications.
Increasingly, global powers are seeing space as the future battlefield. Space is essential for modern warfare, given the importance of satellites for situational awareness and communications. They are important for defensive and offensive strategies as well, ranging from guiding missiles to strike enemy warplanes and defending against them. Trump’s Golden Dome system is likely to give a fillip to the militarisation of space.
A classified US intelligence leak in April 2023 revealed that China is developing advanced cyber weapons designed to “deny, exploit or hijack” enemy satellites in the event of war.
These technologies encompass cyber weapons designed to mimic signals and deceive satellites into malfunctioning. Successful attacks could disable a cluster of satellites, preventing them from relaying orders to weapons systems, communicating with each other or sending back critical intelligence and communications data. US officials describe these systems as more advanced than the Russian jamming tactics visible in Ukraine and involved sophisticated hacking.
China has pursued ground- and space-launched missiles to take out enemy satellites or their ground stations that launch them, as well as space-based high-powered lasers capable of damaging satellite components.
For some time now, China has tested satellites equipped with robotic arms to pull or push an adversary satellite out of orbit, demonstrating the capacity to move a satellite if required. This spurred the US to design agile satellites that would be able to evade such Chinese satellites. Last June, the Chinese also demonstrated their ability to refuel satellites in orbit, vital for extending the longevity of the vehicles.
In 2023, China launched its Yaogan 41 satellite high up, 36,000 kms in a geostationary orbit, under the pretext of monitoring activities relating to agriculture and meteorology. But Western observers noted that its positioning was such that it could keep an eye on an area that included Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the satellite was more likely to be monitoring maritime traffic in the region. China has vastly boosted its space programme in the past decade, and it has some 600 satellites in operation today, out of which an estimated 360 or more are intelligence vehicles.
The US is the leader when it comes to both satellites and anti-satellite technology; however, over the years, both Russia and China have been working hard to catch up. In 2019, in his first administration, Donald Trump set up the American Space Command, which has a wide mandate to deal with threats to the US systems and develop their own systems for war fighting.
The US National Reconnaissance Office, which runs the US spy satellite programme, has launched more than 200 satellites since 2023 and is launching satellites at an enhanced rate.
One result of such developments has been to shift away from big and expensive or multi-purpose satellites towards a larger number of less expensive and expendable satellites. The US National Reconnaissance Office, which runs the US spy satellite programme, has launched more than 200 satellites since 2023 and is launching satellites at an enhanced rate. Already costs of launching spacecraft have come down dramatically. SpaceX, which operates a constellation of 8,000 satellites sent up more than 165 rockets into space last year, while China conducted 92 space launches. This is part of the 324 total orbital launches in the year, which was itself a sharp increase from the previous year’s record of 259 launches.
Artificial Intelligence has also entered the picture and is being used, for example, by the Chinese Yaogan-41 to enhance its detection capabilities. It can also be used for defensive purposes by triggering defence mechanisms and getting satellites to move away when confronted by potentially hostile satellites in space.
Although India has a sophisticated and well-rounded space programme with launchers like the GSLV, satellites like the GSAT-20 launched in November 2024, and the Gaganyaan space mission, the scale remains rather modest. This is evident from its launches, which have ranged between 7 and 10 in recent years.
It remains ill-prepared for the militarisation of space. Its military space programme has been growing rather slowly, in stark contrast to China’s militarised space programme. India created its Defence Space Agency under the Integrated Defence Command in 2018. Shortly thereafter, it conducted its first ASAT test in March 2019, where it used a missile to destroy its own defunct satellite in orbit.
In October 2022, the Prime Minister launched the Mission DefSpace, which includes various challenges to the private and public sectors in the areas of launch systems, satellites, communication systems, ground systems, and software systems. This was part of a larger scheme to encourage domestic industry to be active in the sphere of defence.
Space is necessary for enabling terrestrial operations, and global navigation systems are needed for precision guidance of bombs, missiles, and drones.
Building on this momentum, in October 2024, the Cabinet Committee on Security approved the launch over the next decade of 52 surveillance satellites through a mission handled by the National Security Council Secretariat along with the Defence Space Agency at an estimated cost of some INR 27,000 crore. This is the third phase of India’s space-based surveillance programme that was initiated in 2001 under the Vajpayee government.
The Indian numbers and approach seem meagre compared to the massive investments madeby China, which is the world's second-best space-faring nation today. The importance of space in warfighting cannot be underestimated. Space is necessary for enabling terrestrial operations, and global navigation systems are needed for precision guidance of bombs, missiles, and drones. Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance are needed to track adversary movements. Space-enabled communications are important channels for command and control, and infrared satellites can forewarn against adversary missile attacks.
Space has long been weaponised as militaries sought to use communications, intelligence, and navigation satellites to enable their operations. Today, countries are seeking to develop and deploy counter-space systems to disrupt systems of their adversaries. Disruption of satellite systems could have an enormous collateral impact on civilian systems that service the financial and social well-being of the world at large. Efforts have been made to expand the Outer Space Treaty to ban all weapons in outer space, but so far, they have not gone far.
Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the ORF. He has been a journalist specialising on national and international politics and is a commentator and ...
Read More +
PREV
