The blue economic policies of littoral nations in the Indian Ocean are essential to the Indo-Pacific’s future as a global economic centre
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This article is part of the essay series “Sagarmanthan Edit 2024”
The Indian Ocean, the world’s third-largest ocean, is of great strategic importance due to its geographic position and the presence of emerging threats along trade routes, including piracy and regional conflict. Moreover, in recent decades, climate change has exacerbated tropical storms, floods, droughts and heat waves. A 2021 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated that the Indian Ocean has warmed faster than any other ocean since the 1950s, which adds another dimension of challenges to this critical oceanic geography.
By 2030, the Indian Ocean region is projected to have the highest population density globally, with about 340 million people living in coastal risk zones. The Bay of Bengal is responsible for over 80 percent of cyclone-related fatalities despite only experiencing 5 percent of global cyclones. Rapid population growth, rising sea levels, and increasing cyclone intensity contribute to greater human vulnerability and regional insecurity. Additionally, more frequent and intense heat waves will have significant consequences for public health. This warming, combined with other climatic impacts, is also expected to reduce fish stocks across the region, disproportionately affecting Indian Ocean littoral countries reliant on fishing, with limited capacity to adapt to climate shocks. These countries include India, Indonesia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, and Thailand. The environmental and climatic conditions of the Indian Ocean have significant implications for the blue economy, migration, shipping and geopolitics.
Rapid population growth, rising sea levels, and increasing cyclone intensity contribute to greater human vulnerability and regional insecurity.
India’s geographic positioning as a maritime nation grants it strategic influence over the Indian Ocean. The geoeconomic construct of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ has gained prominence in recent decades as the global economic centre shifts from the West to the East. The regional construct stretches from the western coast of the United States (US) to West Africa, encompassing roughly 65 percent of the global population and over 60 percent of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Approximately 46 percent of global trade passes through its sea lanes of communications (SLOC), making the Indian Ocean a critical maritime passage. As such, India’s maritime ambitions are closely tied to its aspirations to become a regional and global power.
India plays a critical role in securing these SLOCs and promoting economic cooperation through multilateral intergovernmental alliances and regional multilateral organisations. Specifically, India works within frameworks such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) to foster regional collaboration and counterbalance external influences.
The Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s busiest and most crucial maritime trade routes, represents a key geopolitical flashpoint. The Babel-Mandeb Strait, connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, serves as a crucial gateway for global maritime trade and energy transit, especially for Gulf countries exporting oil to Europe and Asia. Security instability in this region, particularly due to conflicts in Yemen and the Horn of Africa, directly impacts accessibility and the uninterrupted flow of goods. Likewise, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategic chokepoints, acting as the primary maritime route for oil exports from Gulf states. Disruptions in this strait, whether due to conflicts or military threats, could reverberate across the global energy market, causing significant economic shocks worldwide.
Approximately 46 percent of global trade passes through its sea lanes of communications (SLOC), making the Indian Ocean a critical maritime passage.
The strategic importance of these chokepoints has heightened competition among major powers, particularly between China and India. India’s partnerships with Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) —a strategic grouping of India, Australia, Japan and the United States —are designed to ensure freedom and security along these vital maritime routes, curbing unwanted Chinese influence in the region. In this context, India’s alliances with the other QUAD members are critical for safeguarding these passages, thereby maintaining both regional stability and economic security as China’s regional presence expands.
The Indian Ocean is a key battleground for power competition between the US and emerging rivals China and India. Both China and India aim to expand their naval presence in the Indian Ocean, but their historical mistrust fosters mutual suspicion. This dynamic shapes how each country approaches the Indian Ocean, leading them to view it through the lens of privileges and responsibilities. While this could be a potential source of future conflict, it also suggests that both nations recognise the importance of maintaining the security of the SLOCs. Despite much discourse around the India-China rivalry in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), potential flashpoints for maritime conflict remain concentrated in the Pacific, particularly in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait.
The US faces broader global challenges that could complicate the prospects for such a partnership, while India's ambitions remain primarily regional in scope.
The US seeks to encourage India to play a more prominent role in Southeast Asia and to develop a strategic partnership aimed at countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. However, the US faces broader global challenges that could complicate the prospects for such a partnership, while India's ambitions remain primarily regional in scope. Nevertheless, the India-China rivalry is unlikely to escalate into open conflict, as both nations have long managed a complex relationship characterised by mutual suspicion. Both India and China are also invested in maintaining the global order, having benefited from it as emerging powers.
A strong US naval presence in the region is expected to play a stabilising role, acting as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence. Although China is expanding its presence in the Indian Ocean, the US Navy remains far superior in terms of capabilities. Given China’s economic dependence on secure maritime trade routes, it is unlikely to engage in any major naval confrontations in the Indian Ocean in the near future.
In the midst of the brewing geopolitical equations and the great power rivalries, however, the chronic challenges about climate change in the Indian Ocean continue to concern India, especially the livelihoods dependent on the nascent blue economy in the Indian Ocean littoral countries. Most of these challenges would have a direct impact on India. Thus, the blue economy could be a tool for diplomacy that India may want to use with the littoral countries.
Although China is expanding its presence in the Indian Ocean, the US Navy remains far superior in terms of capabilities.
The Indian Ocean littoral countries may have to work on policies surrounding the blue economy to ensure sustainable development while protecting marine ecosystems in the littoral region. This includes spatial planning that integrates environmental considerations, promoting fisheries and aquaculture and supporting local production, emerging industries, trade, tourism, technology and skill development. Furthermore, there must be a continued focus on enhancing logistics and shipping infrastructure, developing renewable marine energy, and advancing research and development. The crux of regional stability will depend on blue economy policies that emphasise the strategic importance of oceans and international maritime cooperation.
India's blue economy policy presents substantial opportunities. One of its primary goals is expanding its presence in the global shipping industry by positioning itself as a hub for ship maintenance and repair, which could bring both economic and geopolitical benefits. The development of offshore wind and solar energy also holds great potential for meeting India's growing energy demands. Additionally, aquaculture and marine biotechnology can enhance India's food security and contribute to healthier marine ecosystems.
Aquaculture and marine biotechnology can enhance India's food security and contribute to healthier marine ecosystems.
The Indo-Pacific has emerged as a global economic centre, resulting in ongoing geopolitical and geostrategic opportunities and challenges for the region. On one hand, economic growth in the Indo-Pacific has the potential to foster cooperation, which could reduce poverty and improve the quality of life for millions of people. On the other hand, the region’s growing economic and military power fosters distrust among neighbouring nations, highlighting the complexities of balancing competition with collaboration in a rapidly changing global landscape. Although India remains a cautious maritime power, its focus is on securing its core interests within the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) which are intertwined with both conventional security challenges and unconventional security challenges like climate change.
Lauren Dagan Amos is a lecturer and a researcher in the Department of Political Science and the Security Studies Program at Bar-Ilan University.
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Dr. Lauren Dagan Amoss is an expert on India, focusing on Indian foreign policy and politics. Her PhD examined India's changing attitudes toward the Israeli-Palestinian ...
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