Modi’s visit to Ukraine reflects India's strategic autonomy and its effort to balance relations with Russia, the West, and the Global South while supporting Ukraine's sovereignty and exploring peacebuilding initiatives
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Prime Narendra Minister Modi is set to visit Poland and Ukraine from 21-23 August. The significance of Modi’s visit to Ukraine was reflected in the meeting between India’s Deputy National Security Advisor Pavan Kapoor and Ukrainian President’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak in Kyiv on 10 August, where Yermak emphasised the importance of restoring a just peace for Ukraine and on India’s participation in the peace process. PM Modi’s visit would be the first bilateral visit of an Indian Prime Minister to Ukraine. The timing of the visit is rather significant as PM Modi will be visiting a country ravaged by war, and the visit is just a month and a half after Modi’s first summit visit to Russia since 2019. Thus, it is critical to ascertain the reasons for Modi’s visit to Ukraine and make sense of India's new role as a potential mediator in this conflict.
There are several reasons PM Modi could be going to Kyiv. One of them is due to the repercussions of Modi's visit to Moscow, which was not only the first after his re-election but was on the eve of the NATO summit; the visit, which was after a hiatus of five years, received widespread condemnation from the US, and European nations. Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, condemned this visit by cautioning India not to take India-US relations for granted and that there was no such thing as strategic autonomy in times of conflict. Further, President Zelensky called PM Modi’s visit to Russia and his embracing President Putin when a Russian missile struck a children’s hospital in Ukraine, disappointing and a devastating blow to the peace efforts, for which the Ukrainian Ambassador to India was summoned in New Delhi.
Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, condemned this visit by cautioning India not to take India-US relations for granted and that there was no such thing as strategic autonomy in times of conflict.
Thus, dispelling the misperceived overestimation of India-Russia relations by the G7 and manifesting a foreign policy driven by strategic autonomy are some of the reasons for PM Modi’s upcoming visit to Ukraine. More specifically, with the increasing peace interest in bringing the conflict to an end and India wanting to play a proactive role in issues of European security, New Delhi may offer to mediate. For Kyiv, this visit translates to Indian support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, as PM Modi’s visit is to take place on the eve of the Ukrainian Independence Day, which is seen as a good gesture on New Delhi’s part. Along with aims to increase bilateral trade, which was around US$1 billion before the war, this visit has a stronger undertone of peacebuilding where PM Modi will discuss solutions to bringing lasting peace to this conflict. The discussion centred around bringing an end to the conflict in Ukraine through a negotiated settlement has seen increased takers; one of the reasons for this is the gaining domestic support of the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in the U.S elections, where a Trump victory would mean stronger US involvement in ending the conflict in Ukraine by facilitating a negotiated settlement.
Added to this reality, the peace conference, held in Burgenstock on 16 June, was another reflection for Ukraine that it lacked the support of big countries in the Global South and Asia as countries like India, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) did not sign the joint communique at the end of the summit citing the reason that Russia was not involved in the peace process. Therefore, having secured the backing of most Western countries, Ukraine has increased its efforts to gain support from the Global South and Asian countries. Zelensky stated that the second peace conference could be held in a Global South country.
The recent visit of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to China and the upcoming visit of PM Modi to Ukraine indicate that Kyiv is looking for an adequate mediator for bilateral negotiations with Moscow. According to Alina Hrytsenko, chief consultant at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Ukraine, India’s political proximity to the G7, Russia, and the Global South is more equidistant vis-à-vis Beijing, which is perceived to be revisionist by the West and predatory by the Global South, not to mention the biggest partner of Moscow since the last decade, this makes New Delhi an ideal mediator. Hrytsenko adds that India can attract and involve the Global South in the peace efforts.
In Modi’s meeting with President Putin, the conditions for peace and Moscow’s red lines would likely have been discussed. Thus, Russia may welcome Modi’s visit to Ukraine. A further indication of Moscow’s acceptance of Indian mediation can be reflected in paragraph 74 of the India-Russia joint statement released on the occasion of Modi’s visit, which stated that both nations “highlighted the imperative of peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy and welcomed mediation efforts in accordance to International law and on the basis on UN charter.”
Kyiv would never agree to any demands that might lead to ceding any territory. Considering that the demands are substantive, which concern the demilitarisation of Ukraine and curbing the influence of NATO in Eastern Europe, it is not India but the US/NATO that Russia would have to negotiate with.
In previous mediation efforts brokered by Turkiye and Belarus in early 2022, Russian and Ukrainian delegates held direct negotiations culminating in a document called the Istanbul communique, which Ukraine did not sign due to pressure from the G7; however, it was said that Ukraine was close to signing the communique, which would have brought an end to the conflict. Therefore, the scope for effective negotiations led by New Delhi is limited, as Moscow and Kyiv have differing views on key fundamental terms. Russia would want the control of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia and the demilitarisation of Ukraine. Kyiv would never agree to any demands that might lead to ceding any territory. Considering that the demands are substantive, which concern the demilitarisation of Ukraine and curbing the influence of NATO in Eastern Europe, it is not India but the US/NATO that Russia would have to negotiate with.
PM Modi’s half-day visit to Ukraine is an important development in the two and a half years of the -Russia-Ukraine conflict; it indicates the limits in India’s strategic autonomy where rather than India taking a side in the Ukrainian conflict, PM Modi has to course correct after the visit to Russia by taking a train to Ukraine from Poland. The act of transporting world leaders from Poland to Ukraine via rail is also known as “iron diplomacy”, a term coined by Oleksandr Kamyshin, the CEO of Ukrainian Railways, where world leaders overlook the war and airspace closures by taking the land route to Kyiv, showing support to Ukraine—in this case, to discuss peace. With new trends emerging in this conflict with Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk, it will be interesting to note what message PM Modi would have for President Zelensky.
Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash is a Research Assistant with the Observer Research Foundation
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Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash is a Research Assistant with the ORF Strategic Studies programme, focusing on Russia's domestic politics and economy, Russia's grand strategy, and India-Russia ...
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