While it is not the sole factor for Trump’s victory in the recent US elections, the Gaza crisis and the US’s role in the Middle East shaped US electoral dynamics
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The United States (US) concluded its presidential elections against the backdrop of a brutal war between Israel and Palestine and severe debates about the superpower’s role in this war. While early exit polls had predicted a narrow margin victory for the Democratic party, the results turned out to be in favour of the Republicans. While various factors have been attributed to Trump’s victory, this article seeks to understand the role of the Palestine issue in swinging votes away from the Democrats.
This election has been a landmark moment for both Trump and the Republicans. Not only has Trump been able to reverse the people’s mandate, which he lost to Joe Biden in 2020, but the Republicans have also reclaimed the Senate and inched closer to a majority in the House. With over 77 million voting in his favour as opposed to nearly 75 million in favour of Harris, Trump is the first Republican candidate to win the popular vote since George W. Bush.
With over 77 million voting in his favour as opposed to nearly 75 million in favour of Harris, Trump is the first Republican candidate to win the popular vote since George W. Bush.
As the post-election analysis trickles in, a few key points have emerged. First, Trump has strengthened his performance across nearly all demographics, including the core Republican base, the working class, Latinos, African-Americans, college graduates, young male voters and even urban populations in cities like New York, Chicago, and Miami, which have traditionally been bastions for the Democrats. Second, despite Harris raising more campaign funds than her opponent, she could not retain both the victory margins and counties gained by her predecessor, Joe Biden.
In fact, for every 100 votes lost by Harris, Trump gained 78 votes. The missing 22 votes from this loss/gain equation suggest that, while the public lost trust in Harris and her policies, this trust did not proportionally transfer to Trump. Rather than just an alignment with Trump, this gap also suggests a disillusionment with the Democrats, especially within their core base and swing states. While socio-economic issues, such as migration, high inflation, and the tirade against “wokeness” played a critical role in the elections, a part of the discussion surrounding the Democrats’ loss has fixated on the role of the Gaza crisis, and Arab American[1] and Muslim voters voting against the Democrats after feeling disenfranchised over policies supporting Israel.
There are two main ways in which the impact of Gaza can be noted in the 2024 US elections. Firstly, in the swing state of Michigan, where Arab Americans form a strong part of the electorate, Democrats were not able to win as many seats as they wanted. Trump and third-party candidate Jill Stein together received almost 70 percent of the vote in the city of Dearborn (an Arab-American stronghold), which helped give Trump his victory in the state. Voters from this city and other parts of Michigan were adamant about voting against Harris for what they believed to be her wilful negligence of their interests. Indeed, as pointed out by many voters and analysts, Donald Trump was quite intentional about meeting the Arab and Muslim American communities in the cities of Michigan, even bringing together a cohort of Imams to endorse him in one of his rallies. Harris, on the other hand, did not make any such concessions, further angering the community beyond her party’s uninhibited support of Israel. Secondly, it is also quite likely that liberal and progressive voters who felt dismayed at the Democrats’ unwillingness to confront Israel also voted for other candidates, further underscoring the impact of the conflict.
Trump and third-party candidate Jill Stein together received almost 70 percent of the vote in the city of Dearborn (an Arab-American stronghold), which helped give Trump his victory in the state.
Thus, there seems to be some indirect evidence that the issue of Israel and Palestine has played a role in dictating voting sentiments. For instance, in three of the seven swing states, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, polling conducted in August 2024 demonstrated that between 30 to 39 percent of voters were more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate (Kamala Harris) if the US were to withhold aid to Israel due to its genocide in Gaza. Given that these three states did not even include Michigan, the swing state with a significant Arab majority, it is clear that there has been some indirect impact of Gaza on the American vote.
Other trends that also indicate some level of impact are the various polls done among young voters (18-29), many of whom are coming of age. According to polls conducted in June 2024 (before Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate), almost 53 percent of young voters wanted a ceasefire in Gaza. This has been linked to young generations of Americans following pro-Palestinian content on TikTok, thereby increasing their opposition to Israel’s activities in Palestine.
In general, no election is a single-issue election and the US, with a population of about 337 million, that includes several different ethnic and religious groups, deserves a far more complex breakdown of election trends. Even if Michigan was won decisively by Trump due to Arab American voters, it only contributed 15 electoral votes to Trump who won by a total margin of 86 electoral votes. In other words, even if Trump lost Michigan, he would have still won this election.
Other reasons can be attributed to the Democrat’s losses. For instance, as Francis Fukuyama has argued, rising rent and prices across the US were a problem for most young voters. Additionally, a disproportionate focus on what is termed as “woke liberalism” at the cost of providing opportunities to less privileged members of the working class was another reason Fukuyama cited, a point expressed by some other political pundits, too. Trump supporters also view the US’s open borders and immigration with immense hostility, especially as inner cities’ fortunes crumble and rural towns fear crime.
The war in Gaza has made foreign policy an important determining factor in US elections, reflecting past trends where the Vietnam War (as one example) played a key role in dictating election outcomes.
Throughout this interrogation of voting patterns above, a few issues become clear. First, the war in Gaza has made foreign policy an important determining factor in US elections, reflecting past trends where the Vietnam War (as one example) played a key role in dictating election outcomes. Second, the potency of this issue is nevertheless limited and not the main deciding factor since many other domestic issues also played a role. Third, voters were aware of the difficult choices they were faced with regarding the issue of Palestine, and while some voted for a third party to keep their conscience clean, others voted against the Democrats to punish them for their involvement in the war.
In conclusion, while it won’t be fully possible to isolate the impact of the war on US electoral politics, it is plausible to state that the Arab and Muslim American diasporas will play a role in determining political competition in the US. With a population expected to hit 8 million over the next two decades, and with the concentration of Muslims in specific swing states that play a crucial role in elections, political parties in the US will ill afford to ignore their sentiments about conflicts playing out in the Middle East. Eventually, this gives the region and its conflicts ever-increasing importance in the future.
Mohammed Sinan Siyech is a Non-Resident Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
Akanksha Narain is an independent researcher based in London.
[1] The Arab American population consists of numerous religions and sects, including Muslims, Christians, Jews, Druze and Mandeans, and is majority Christian. https://theconversation.com/arab-americans-are-a-much-more-diverse-group-than-many-of-their-neighbors-mistakenly-assume-201930
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Dr. Mohammed Sinan Siyech is a Non – Resident Associate Fellow working with Professor Harsh Pant in the Strategic Studies Programme. He works on Conflict ...
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