Expert Speak Atlantic Files
Published on May 07, 2020
Free elections are the backbone of a democracy. But to preserve democracy during a crisis such as this, we may need to cancel, postpone or rethink the entire electoral process.
Guiding democracy through Covid19: Poland shows us what not to do Conducting and participating in democratic elections during the Covid-19 pandemic has become a an issue for governments and people around the globe. Given the looming threat of a further outbreak of the pandemic, policymakers are debating whether parliamentary and presidential elections should be canceled, postponed, or held in a new manner. The situation also does not leave much room to hold campaign events. However, the recent parliamentary elections in South Korea were a measurably good example of how the risk of contamination could be minimalised through social discipline and maintaining strict safety standards. Still, countries continue to debate whether elections should be conducted, and if so, just how. Governments that enjoy high support are in many cases poised to consolidate power fast, as popularity may fade when people start to feel the economic consequences of the pandemic. And Poland may be the case we need to keep our eyes on, with the presidential elections originally to be held on 10 May yet no legal framework and electoral procedure outlined until 6 May. Late in the evening on 6 May, it was announced that the elections would ultimately not be held on 10 May. The Supreme Court will annul the presidential elections on Monday (11 May) following the ‘election day’ and a new date is expected to be announced for in August. This is perhaps the best option for Poland, as the chaotic polls and likely questionable results might have left a deep and lasting imprint on society, undermining the trust in institutions and legislative mechanisms, the main aim of which is to secure democratic procedures. But we must start at the beginning. The Polish government refrained from announcing an emergency when the pandemic first hit the country. Had an emergency been imposed, the elections would have automatically been postponed to a later date (within 90 days after the state of emergency is revoked), according to the constitution. Opinion polls indicated that President Andrzej Duda had a very good chance of winning re-election in the first round of voting, while declaring an emergency—and consequently postponing the polls—could have meant political uncertainty for Duda, his party and allies. Conducting the vote also meant risking a further spread of Covid-19. This forced the government to choose an unpredictable and bumpy road, which inevitably put political trust and democratic procedures into question. The upcoming presidential election has stirred controversy among a number of academics, analysts, poll observers and international institutions like the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights and Human Rights Watch. The ruling Law and Justice Party has presented a special election bill, with the presidential election in mind, that would introduce compulsory universal postal voting. This proposal has caused chaos as Poland has never held a postal vote. Another issue raised in the proposed bill is the shifting the responsibility of organising the election from the traditional the National Electoral Commission to the Ministry of State Assets, a newly established government arm that has no experience in electoral proceedings. Although the bill was accepted by the Polish Sejm (lower house of parliament), it was rejected on 5 May by the Polish Senate (upper house), where the Law and Justice Party doesn't have a majority. As per the legislative process, the bill is back in the Sejm, which could vote to overturn the Senate’s decision. But with there being some dissent in the ruling coalition, it may just be rejected. Despite the 10 May election looming, voters didn't know until the evening of 6 May if the presidential elections would take place, and if so, in what form. For the first time in the country’s history, the Poczta Polska (Polish Post) would be responsible for the logistics of the elections, making it more of an experiment rather than a reliable method. All this does is show that democratic rules could be set at the last minute, undermining the people’s trust in the government. Besides, the government already has a long list controversial moves, perceived as illicit ways to retain power, and citizens may be asking themselves if they should participate in the presidential election at all. Another important issue to consider is the ability of all candidate to communicate with voters in an equal manner. Political gatherings and meetings are limited as social distancing-rules have been imposed. How can a successful political campaign be led in the age of social distancing? Democracy needs balanced access to information, presented as objectively as possible, but the Polish public television failed to meet these needs. Thus, the campaign effectively shifted to private companies, which in Poland are often owned by foreign actors, or to the Silicon Valley social media infrastructure. For the generation that grew up after the return to democracy in 1989, the upcoming presidential elections are the first serious attempt to bend the rules of democratic participation. In the long run, the attempts to organise haphazardly arranged presidential elections may undermine further social coherence and the trust given to political leaders. As for now, the political debate continues. The uncertainty over the Covid-19 pandemic is adding extra fuel to the political unpredictability of democracy and is raising social apathy. Democratic countries must design the electoral process in ways that strengthens social trust in the system. Otherwise, Covid-19 will lead to growing political divisions, further erosion of trust, and destabilisation in the post-pandemic period, which will require united action against the economic and social challenges.
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Contributor

Patrycja Pendrakowska

Patrycja Pendrakowska

Patrycja Pendrakowska is President of the Board at Boym Institute Warsaw.

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