As global demographics and geopolitics shift, the Global South is emerging as a vital partner, offering new markets, new ideas, and fresh pathways for sustainable and inclusive development
Up until the recent past, the countries of the Global South were regarded either as a “problem” (for example, on climate change, despite the fact that the largest emitters per capita have been developed countries) or as resource-rich areas to be exploited. But a new trend is in the offing: deviating from mainstream academic analyses that portray the Global South in terms of state fragility, democratic deficits, and other constraints — and the paternalistic policies of Western states that resulted as a consequence — there is now a growing appreciation of the dynamism and leadership that parts of the Global South bring to the global negotiating table.
This commentary starts by offering three explanations for the timing of this long-overdue recognition. It then suggests ways in which the Global South and Global North can create synergies across their varied demographic compositions. The third section identifies the challenges that will have to be overcome to create global win-win situations and offers some caveats. The final section highlights positive stories that could produce cross-regional learning for a better planetary future.
First, the credit for why the Global South has come to attract positive global attention in recent times goes to the countries themselves. Several among them have played their cards well. India, for instance, with its policy of “multi-alignment,” was able to put itself in the enviable position of being courted by Russia, Europe, and the US during the Biden era. Trump 2.0 has presented some challenges, but here too, India’s multi-alignment and diversification strategies have worked to its advantage — witness the several trade agreements that it has signed with other partners, including the deal with the European Union (which covers not only trade, but also foreign and security policy). Combine its strategic foresight on multi-alignment, its identity as the world’s largest democracy, and its commitment to democratic values with the draw of its large market, and it becomes clear why many are looking to India as they realign their Global Value Chains (GVCs).
Today, the Global South is seen as part of the solution to many problems: mitigating climate change, overcoming the digital divide, regulating digital technologies, reforming global governance, and finding new pathways to development.
Second, global geopolitical turbulence has led to a search for new partnerships. The EU is a case in point. The Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered a questioning of overdependence on single-source suppliers for energy supplies and strategic products — thereby prompting a serious debate in Europe on diversifying away from China as well. The arrival of team Trump 2.0 further demonstrated that even well-established fundamentals — such as the security of the Transatlantic Partnership — could no longer be relied on. In these circumstances, the value of reliable, like-minded partners from the Global South has increased in the Global North.
Third, several countries of the Global South have been doing their homework: undertaking economic reform programmes, building infrastructure, and improving governance. Some enjoy a democratic dividend, and some are home to generous supplies of critical minerals and other essential resources. Their attractiveness as economic and geopolitical partners is thus increasing, not only because of current global risks and uncertainties, but also on their own terms.
Today, the Global South is seen as part of the solution to many problems: mitigating climate change, overcoming the digital divide, regulating digital technologies, reforming global governance, and finding new pathways to development.
While the developed world frets over the problem of ageing populations, parts of the Global South are envied for their potential demographic dividend. With the right policies, this demographic contrast could become a win-win for all. In principle, the ageing economies of Europe should appreciate the dynamic, growing economies of Asia and Africa, which could turn out to be drivers of global growth and development. The “silver” economies should thus collaborate closely with the “young” economies in order to support green development, technological innovation, and societal resilience there.
To take one concrete example of how this could and should play out: developed economies with ageing populations face several challenges, including labour shortages. Welcoming policies towards legal and qualified migrants from developing countries that enjoy demographic dividends could work to the advantage of both sides. Unfortunately, though, domestic politics in Western countries render this difficult. Inadequately thought-out immigration policies (for example, recall German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s “wir schaffen das” moment in 2015) are a contributing factor to the backlash against even qualified immigrants in Europe. The increasing success of political parties with clear anti-immigration sentiments shows the high levels of polarisation in Western societies;[1] the Trump administration’s policies towards immigration are another such indication. As a result, a sensible route — qualified immigration — to address some of the economic problems of demographic contrast between the Global North and Global South, to mutual advantage, becomes a risky one to pursue in the current political climate. Similarly, whereas the West should be increasing development aid and other programmes to support the demographic dividend window in the Global South (as well as its own ageing economies), the reality of development cooperation and aid has become more challenging.
If politicians in the West are serious about addressing the demographic problems their economies face, they will need to have some tough domestic conversations and improve narratives about, and policies towards, qualified immigrants accordingly.
What is the solution? A good place to start would be to recognise that technocratic solutions alone will not suffice: economics cannot be insulated from politics. This should already have been patently evident, given the weaponisation of international trade, but it has yet to be fully internalised even in trade debates in Geneva or in the reform debate at the WTO’s Ministerial Conference 14. If politicians in the West are serious about addressing the demographic problems their economies face, they will need to have some tough domestic conversations and improve narratives about, and policies towards, qualified immigrants accordingly.
Population growth does not automatically translate into an advantage. For the demographic dividend to pay off, smart policies at home are essential. These include labour reforms to make the most of the youth bulge; state-of-the-art and accessible healthcare for all (including children, the elderly, and the vulnerable); investment in human capital; and the empowerment of women. It is worth bearing in mind that policies that worked for other economies in the past may no longer suffice for those hoping to reap the demographic dividend in the future. The reasons include not only the crisis of multilateralism, but also the growing importance of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Education, training, and upskilling will be key to transforming the potential AI challenge into an opportunity for greater inclusion, equality, growth, and development.
Equally important for every country about to experience a demographic dividend is the existential challenge of managing trade-offs between growing urbanisation and protecting wildlife, and of securing co-existence between humans and more-than-humans. Incorporating perspectives from Deep Ecology and combining them with the respective country’s homegrown traditions will help mitigate some of the harm that rampant development can cause to nature.
It is worth bearing in mind that policies that worked for other economies in the past may no longer suffice for those hoping to reap the demographic dividend in the future. The reasons include not only the crisis of multilateralism, but also the growing importance of Artificial Intelligence (AI).
The demographic dividend of some countries comes with the allure of large markets. To harness this, the West will have to pay greater attention to the consumer characteristics of Global South economies. Again, take the example of India, whose negotiation positions have long baffled policymakers and business actors. This unhappy confusion stems from simplistic assumptions about India — for example, as a former British colony with a large English-speaking population, and from an inadequate appreciation of its identity as a civilisational power. To understand how Indians think about society, war, the environment, or rights, we have to take into account not only the values of modern India but also its living traditions derived from ancient sources. The same can be said of other powers from the Global South, and indeed of indigenous cultures within the Global North too. Policymakers and business leaders would do well to incorporate interdisciplinary expertise from the relevant countries when they seek to enter their markets.
Even as countries debate and barter over their demographic advantages and burdens, a deeper global conversation — across state and non-state actors — needs to be had on whether the planet can continue to carry the burden of constantly growing human populations.[2] Development models and consumption patterns that are not only human-centric but also planet-centric are the need of the day.
Several examples offer scope for cross-regional learning and adaptation. With its concept of LiFE (Lifestyle for the Environment) and its reliance on the ancient precept of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, India has pioneered an alternative development framework that recognises a “one-ness” transcending humans, more-than-humans, and the environment. New Zealand’s ban on the export of live animals offers another example of how economies can rewrite their interests using a grammar of ethics. South Korea’s decision to protect its canine citizens by outlawing dog meat for human consumption is another illustration of how a mix of advocacy and activism, evolving public opinion, and political leadership can together bring about a change in laws towards trans-species compassion.
The current “poly-crisis” creates incentives for a fundamental rethinking of old models of globalisation and governance. The Global South has an important role to play in shaping new consumption patterns and international trade flows — to ensure not only human prosperity but also the welfare and dignity of all beings.
Amrita Narlikar, Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation and Honorary Fellow, Darwin College, University of Cambridge.
Some of the ideas presented in this article were first published as the Cover Story Interview with Tongsang, April 2026, the South Korean monthly magazine, published by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE). The author thanks the magazine and the interviewer for the stimulating exchange, and also Dr Eva Nag for helpful feedback on an earlier draft.
[1] It is worth mentioning that despite the recent election results in Hungary, and differences in immigration rhetoric between Fidesz and TISZA parties nothwithstanding, the incoming party is unlikely to adopt a pro-immigration stance towards non-European workers.
[2] For some, the answer involves trans-planetary conquest, but there are serious ethical issues that need to be taken into account before such adventurism is planned or approved.
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Dr. Amrita Narlikar’s research expertise lies in the areas of international negotiation, World Trade Organization, multilateralism, and India’s foreign policy & strategic thought. Amrita is Distinguished ...
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