China’s 15th Five-Year Plan signals a shift toward a techno-security model—embedding technological self-reliance and supply chain resilience within a more stable, innovation-led growth strategy amid rising geopolitical uncertainty
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The outline of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, unveiled recently, gives a clear indication of its policy trajectory till 2030. Reflecting on the international situation, the Communist Party of China (CPC) sees rising risks, growing uncertainty, frequent geopolitical conflicts, and increasingly prominent security concerns. Amid this, doubling per capita GDP in the long run is a central priority.
Beijing also assesses any truce over trade issues with Washington as temporary. Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for greater technological self-sufficiency as contestation with the United States (US) under President Donald Trump intensifies. In this vein, the Plan outline notes that efforts must be undertaken to improve the ‘response mechanism’ for supply chain security, and to build ‘competitive advantages’ in rare earths. China’s focus is on future industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and sixth-generation mobile communication as key drivers of economic growth. Planners have zeroed in on vulnerable points in industrial and supply chains, and vow ‘extraordinary measures’ to achieve breakthroughs in key core technologies such as integrated circuits, industrial machine tools, high-end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing.
Reflecting on the international situation, the Communist Party of China (CPC) sees rising risks, growing uncertainty, frequent geopolitical conflicts, and increasingly prominent security concerns.
This aspiration for technological resilience has placed the onus on fostering a domestic innovation ecosystem, with the Plan targeting annual spending growth of 7 percent. Plans are afoot to establish research institutes for future industries and to create pilot development zones linked to nearby universities that have robust scientific expertise.
The draft outline focuses on a “new quality productive force”（新质生产力）, innovation-led growth, and technological self-reliance. This plan highlights a shift from an earlier growth model that focused on export maximisation, infrastructure development, and real estate growth towards industrial modernisation, advanced manufacturing, and the expansion of strategic sectors critical to national security. The Plan emphasises increasing household consumption in the Chinese economy, as US$ 11 trillion remains idle as precautionary savings, while reducing over-reliance on investment and export drivers. Under the ambit of the Plan, this entails an expanded social safety net, the liberalisation of the service sector, and the redesign of China’s fiscal system to give local governments more resources to spend on such initiatives and realise economic modernisation.
China recently lowered its economic growth target to 4.5–5 percent, from the 5 percent target of the past three years, signalling a shift from high growth to economic stability. This recalibration reflects a more cautious and realistic assessment of economic conditions, including local government debt, a struggling property sector, and weak global demand. Instead of pursuing aggressive fiscal stimulus, Beijing has opted for a restrained approach. The quotas of RMB 4.4 trillion in local government special-purpose bonds and RMB 1.3 trillion in ultra-long special treasury bonds are unchanged. China’s fiscal deficit remains at 4 percent of GDP in 2026, even as consumer subsidies have been introduced. This reflects China’s clear policy choice to prioritise financing stability and structural reforms over short-term growth acceleration.
The core of China’s new development model is the emphasis on the creation of ‘new productive forces’. This reflects Beijing’s renewed focus on building a technical workforce to drive high-quality growth and support economic transformation. The AI+ initiative, launched last year, aims to integrate AI across industries, manufacturing and services to enhance productivity and foster technology-led growth in response to demographic stress. Beijing aims to shift from technological adoption to indigenous innovation. This signals a broader ambition to move beyond imitation towards global technological leadership and reduce dependence on foreign technology amid intensifying competition.
China no longer views economic growth and national security as separate tracks. By framing self-reliance in core technologies (such as semiconductors and AI) as a security imperative, the government is prioritising resilience over headline GDP growth. Academic Tai Ming Cheung argues that China aspires to be a “techno-security” state where economics, innovation, hard power, and national security are conjoined.
The techno-security model suggests that for a superpower to be stable, its supply chains and digital infrastructure must be secure, operating as a “fortress” immune to external sanctions or geopolitical pressure. A broader shift reflected in the meeting is the integration of security considerations into economic governance. This approach aims to insulate China from external shocks—whether geopolitical, technological, or financial—by strengthening domestic capabilities. It aims to achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency and secure supply chains, while maintaining internal discipline, anti-corruption efforts, and regime security.
China recently lowered its economic growth target to 4.5–5 percent, from the 5 percent target of the past three years, signalling a shift from high growth to economic stability.
In sum, the commencement of the 15th Five-Year Plan solidifies China’s transition to a governance model defined by security, continuity, and strategic focus. It consolidates central control and advances the legislative formalisation of a national development planning law, positioning the five-year plan as a central strategic guide of the state, while embedding risk aversion in local governance through performance metrics for officials. China is consolidating a development paradigm that prioritises technological self-reliance, boosts consumption, and manages deflationary pressures for high-quality economic development. This model deepens state intervention, prioritising security over growth speed and advancing a more China-centric global order.
Kalpit A. Mankikar is a Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
Amit Ranjan Alok is a Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Kalpit A Mankikar is a Fellow with Strategic Studies programme and is based out of ORFs Delhi centre. His research focusses on China specifically looking ...
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Amit Ranjan Alok is a Research Intern at ORF. He is a second-year PhD candidate in Chinese political economy at the Centre for East Asian ...
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