Fossil fuel consumption: Perspectives of the Global South and the North

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Background

In 2023, the global average per person energy consumption was about 77 gigajoules (GJ). On average, 77 GJ is more than minimum energy required for a decent living. Out of about 90 countries and regions that cover most of the World’s population, about 33 countries have energy consumption below 77 GJ. The average per person energy consumption in Africa is just 14 GJ. Roughly a seventh of the global population, mostly in the Global South, live without electricity or an inadequate and irregular supply of electricity, and about a third rely on traditional fuels such as firewood to cook their meals. The majority in the Global North consume several times the energy needed for comfortable living. The common explanation is that cold winters make it necessary to consume additional energy for space heating.  However, most of those in the Global South experience intense heat in summer, but majority of the households cannot afford space cooling devices such as air conditioners. Leaders in the Global South want to accelerate energy access and energy consumption for economic growth, better quality of life, and also for political accountability. While decarbonisation of energy supply is important, energy for economic growth is priority. For those in the Global North, high levels of energy consumption - many times the energy required for comfortable living-must be sustained, even if this comes at the cost of energy consumption by the Global South. The Global South must be weaned off fossil fuel-based energy systems (particularly coal) with low-carbon energy options (leap-frog from no energy to clean energy), even if this limits energy consumption. The prospect of energy consumption growth increasing in the Global North because of the increase in the use of artificial intelligence (AI) makes disciplining energy use in the Global South even more urgent for the Global North.

Coal

In 2023, global coal production touched 179 exajoules (EJ), beating the record of 174 EJ in 2022. Close to 80 percent of global production was from just four countries, Australia, China, India, and Indonesia. Global coal consumption continued to increase and broke the record of 161.62 EJ set in 2014 to reach 164 EJ in 2023. The growth of 1.6 percent in coal consumption in 2023 was seven times higher than the previous ten-year average growth rate. China was the largest consumer of coal, and in 2023 accounting for 56 percent of the world’s total consumption.  India exceeded the combined consumption of Europe and North America for the first time in 2023. Coal consumption in both Europe and North America fell below 10 EJ each and has been in constant decline over the past 10 years. Despite being the world’s second-largest coal consumer, India has the lowest coal consumption per person among the top 10 coal consumers at about 15 GJ per person per year in 2023. China retains the top position at 64 GJ per person, and the second largest consumption of coal per person is in South Africa at just over 55 GJ per person. All other countries in the top ten list, including US and Germany have higher per person coal consumption than India.

Coal consumption grew by over 41 percent in Bangladesh, over 22 percent in Vietnam, and over 10 percent in the Philippines in 2023.  Bangladesh where natural gas is the dominant source for power generation, is switching to coal to meet growing demand rather than depend on expensive imported natural gas, illustrating the significance of coal in meeting the affordability constraints in the Global South. Vietnam and Philippines are emerging as manufacturing hubs following financial and non-financial barriers imposed by the Global North against imports from China. Vietnam and Philippines are increasing coal-fired power generation to maintain competitiveness in the export markets.

Source: Coal consumption - Statistical Review of World Energy; Population: UN Population fund

In the Global North coal use for power generation is declining as a result of slow growth in electricity demand, the substitution of coal-based power generation with natural gas, improvement in energy efficiency, and a shift towards cleaner energy sources. In 2023, power generation fell by 1 percent in the US and by 2.4 percent in Europe. Between 2013-23, power demand declined by about 0.5 percent in the US and in Europe.  In 2020, lower gas prices led to significant fuel switching away from coal, particularly in the US and Europe, where coal use for power fell by 20 percent and 21 percent, respectively. Between 2013-2023, coal use fell by over 7 percent in the US and by 6 percent in Europe. Generous subsidies for renewable energy use, as well as stringent penalties for carbon emission, have enabled the displacement of coal. For the North coal, is a dispensable fuel and a target for attack in the climate context, as natural gas, a near-perfect substitute is available either domestically (in the US) or through international trade (in the EU).

Oil

In 2023, global oil production increased by 2.1 million barrels per day (b/d) to reach a record level of 96 million b/d. The US was the largest producer and consumer of oil, accounting for over 18 percent of global production and oil consumption in 2023. Global oil consumption exceeded 100 million b/d in 2023, defying forecasts made in the 2000s that oil demand will not cross 100 million b/d.  Oil demand in the US grew by 0.6 percent in 2023, while it fell by 0.8 percent in Europe. The Asia-Pacific region recorded a growth of 5.4 percent in 2023, with China alone recording a post-pandemic growth of over 10 percent.  At 7 GJ per person, India’s oil consumption per person is not in the top ten list. Consumption of over 198 GJ per person made Saudi Arabia the largest consumer of oil in 2023, followed by Canada at 111 GJ per person and US at 104 GJ per person. China’s oil consumption per person is three times that of India’s, but it is still only about a fourth of that in the US. Saudi Arabia’s oil consumption per person is 28 times that of India, while the US oil consumption per person is more than fourteen times that of India.

Oil demand growth has peaked in the Global North, but oil’s importance in most economies remains undiminished. For the US, it is a source of energy security, economic activity and job creation. Between 2013-23, oil demand declined at 0.2 percent in OECD (organisation for economic cooperation and development) economies. The electrification of mobility, stagnant economic growth and demographic changes are driving oil demand decline. Tax on oil is an important source of revenue in Europe, but not in the US. Oil prices remain important in the context inflation in all economies, underscoring the value of oil. This explains why oil does not become a target for attack in climate change negotiating platforms. However, the Global North continues its effort to discipline oil consumption growth in the Global South by highlighting the aggregate quantity of oil consumed by these large countries while masking the small per person consumption. This enables the Global North to sustain its own oil consumption.

Source: Oil consumption - Statistical Review of World Energy; Population: UN Population fund 

For the Global South, oil continues to be central to economic activity, and oil price is important both for terms of trade and for inflation. Oil demand continues to grow, albeit slowly. Oil demand grew by 5.5 percent in Asia, with a growth of over 10 percent in China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore. Between 2013-23, oil demand in Asia grew by over 2 percent. Tax on oil is an important source of revenue for the governments (particularly India), and alternative sources of revenue when electrification of transportation displaces oil is yet to be identified. In China, electric vehicles account for close to half of total vehicle sales, which may slow down oil demand growth.

Gas

Gas is the second-largest source of energy after oil in the US and Europe.  Gas accounts for a third of the US’s primary energy basket and a quarter of Europe’s. In CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) countries and in the Middle East, natural gas is the single largest primary energy source. US was the largest producer and consumer of natural gas, accounting for over 25 percent of production and 22 percent of consumption in 2023. A large share of carbon emission reduction in Europe and the US is attributed to natural gas substituting coal-based power generation. For the Global North, natural gas is a strategic bridge fuel contributing to carbon emission reduction. For the US, natural gas is a source of energy security, a lucrative export commodity, and source of economic activity and job creation domestically. United Arab Emirates (UAE) is the largest consumer of natural gas per person, with a consumption of 251 GJ in 2023. The second and the third largest consumers are Russia, with a consumption of 113 GJ per person, and Canada, closely following with a consumption of 111 GJ in 2023.  The North has supported the campaign to promote natural gas as bridge fuel. The US, in particular, has been active in the campaign as it sought to expand export destinations for natural gas.

In Asia, natural gas was only the third largest fuel meeting primary energy demand. Even in China, that consumes 10 percent of global total and remains the largest export destination of LNG (liquefied natural gas), gas meets only about 8 percent of primary energy demand. With a consumption of just over 1 GJ per person in 2023, Indians are the smallest consumers of natural gas. China’s per person gas consumption is 10 times that of India. For the Global South, particularly for India and China, that are dependent on imported natural gas in the form of LNG, natural gas is an expensive fuel compared to domestic coal.

Takeaways

Fossil fuels continue to play a significant role in the Global North and the Global South. The Global North highlights aggregate quantity of fossil fuel use, particularly coal, in the Global South. This serves the interest of the Global North in redistributing guilt for causing climate change, which in turn enables the Global North to redistribute the cost of addressing climate change. In per person terms, consumption of fossil fuels in most of the Global South is abysmally low, and so is its per person carbon emissions. India is a case in point. If the Global North is concerned about access and affordability of energy, and is seeking a just energy transition for the Global South as it claims, it would focus on the per-person fossil fuel consumption and carbon emissions metrics in the Global South. The size of a country - an accident of history and geography that disproportionally penalises large poor countries-should not determine a country’s status as a polluter, but rather its people and their emission levels.

Consumption patterns of fossil fuels suggests that strategic and economic significance of the particular fossil fuel takes precedence over its role in emission of carbon for countries in the Global North as well as in the Global South. National interests, rather than science, defend policy to regulate carbon emissions. The narrative on climate change produced and propagated by the Global North conflates normative beliefs with scientific truth. Technocratic elite from the Global North control climate policy-making and council governments of the Global South of supposedly unambiguous facts to push them to act as the Global North desires. Guilt over the quantum of current emissions and fear over consequences are invoked to push Governments in the South to fall in line. Obviously, this isn’t working. The coal-based power plants being built in the Global South cost several times more than the financial support that the Global North is offering to limit carbon emissions. In other words, the money going into increasing carbon emissions is more than the money going into decreasing it. If policy-making becomes more democratic to accommodate hopes and desires of the Global South instead of exploiting guilt and fear, climate action may have a chance if success.

Source: Gas consumption - Statistical Review of World Energy; Population: UN Population fund

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Lydia Powell is a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.

Akhilesh Sati is a Program Manager at the Observer Research Foundation.

Vinod Kumar Tomar is a Assistant Manager at the Observer Research Foundation.

• Energy
• Oil, Gas and Renewables
• India
• Carbon Emissions
• Climate Change
• energy disparity
• fossil fuels
• Global North
• global south

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