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Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s inauguration on 20 October marked a smooth transition from his position as defence minister in Joko Widodo’s—popularly known as Jokowi—second administration.
Prabowo has committed to upholding Indonesia's long-standing, “free and active” foreign policy, emphasising a non-aligned approach and national autonomy. While this aligns with past Indonesian policies, Prabowo is expected to be a more internationally focused president than Jokowi was during his decade-long tenure.
Prabowo appointed his party ally, Sugiono, as Foreign Minister, signalling a shift in foreign policy leadership from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the Istana Palace. This appointment contrasts with the quiet yet impactful role that former Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, had carved out for herself during Jokowi's administration. Sugiono's appointment marks the first time in 15 years that a non-career diplomat has held the position.
Going beyond ASEAN
Prabowo understands the complexities of the global landscape he faces. He acknowledges potential limitations to Indonesia's pursuit of a non-aligned policy with full autonomy. His administration must navigate relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), major powers like the United States (US) and China, and must also engage with emerging and middle powers. This approach reflects the realities of Indonesia's geopolitical position.
While some analysts view Prabowo's foreign policy as assertive, it is better characterised as active, with the President playing a central role rather than relying on the Foreign Office.
During the six months leading to his inauguration, Prabowo utilised his role as defence minister to engage with leaders across ASEAN and beyond, setting the tone for his anticipated active foreign policy. Among the countries he visited as president-elect were China and Russia.
Shortly after assuming office, Prabowo embarked on a high-profile, multi-nation tour, reinforcing his proactive stance. His fluency in English, engaging personality, and charisma distinguish him from Jokowi, who was more reserved on the global stage.
While some analysts view Prabowo's foreign policy as assertive, it is better characterised as active, with the President playing a central role rather than relying on the Foreign Office. In November, during a 12-day tour, Prabowo visited China, the United States (US), Peru for the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) Summit, Brazil for the G20 Summit, the United Kingdom (UK), and Dubai. This itinerary underscored Indonesia's engagement with major powers and prominent international summits, reflecting Prabowo's intent to elevate Indonesia's global profile.
In Beijing, Prabowo met with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, securing commitments for greater economic cooperation with China. China promises a further US$10 billion in investment. Recognising Indonesia's economic challenges, Prabowo acknowledges the necessity of stronger economic ties with China. Despite previous apprehensions during his time as defence minister and as a presidential candidate, economic integration must now align with strategic considerations for Indonesia's growth.
Prabowo's subsequent visit to Washington included a meeting with President Biden. Though he did not meet with incoming President Trump directly, his campaign publicised a phone call with Trump on social media. During Prabowo's inauguration, the US was represented by Linda Thomas-Greenfield, its ambassador to the United Nations (UN). The US supports Indonesian accession to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)—a goal that Indonesia pursues relentlessly.
Despite scepticism from some quarters, many Indonesians believe Prabowo's foreign policy aligns with his domestic agenda, enhancing Indonesia's global standing and attracting foreign investment. His participation in major summits like the G20 and the APEC underscores this ambition. Although Prabowo will not chair either summit during his first term, he remains focused on raising Indonesia's international profile.
Several key themes have emerged from Prabowo's foreign policy approach in his first quarter as president. First, his focus is more global than regional. His addresses at APEC and the G20, along with his engagement with major powers and the P5—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the US—highlight Indonesia's desire to assert itself on the world stage rather than restrict its influence to regional affairs.
An “ASEAN Plus” foreign policy may emerge, allowing Indonesia to pursue broader engagements beyond the collective ASEAN framework.
A notable priority for Prabowo is advocating for a resolution to the Israel-Gaza conflict, reflecting Indonesia's enduring support for the Palestinian cause. He mentioned Palestine in his inaugural address to Parliament on 20 October 2024. Despite ongoing efforts, Prabowo has yet to achieve tangible results, but his commitment to the issue remains steadfast. Indonesia does not recognise Israel, maintaining a hardline stance that has been challenged following the actions by Hamas on 7 October. However, some Arab nations aligned with Prabowo have distanced themselves from Hamas, complicating Indonesia's position.
As president-elect, Prabowo visited most ASEAN countries and actively participated in the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meetings, fostering regional cooperation. However, his global ambitions are now expected to take precedence over ASEAN obligations. An “ASEAN Plus” foreign policy may emerge, allowing Indonesia to pursue broader engagements beyond the collective ASEAN framework.
This shift was evident at APEC, the G20, and BRICS, where Indonesia increasingly represents itself rather than ASEAN. During Prabowo's term, Indonesia will not chair ASEAN, which it did in 2022. This evolving foreign policy may lead Indonesia to adopt positions diverging from the ASEAN consensus.
One example is Indonesia's joint exploration agreement with China in the Natuna Sea, part of the South China Sea dispute. While Indonesia is not directly involved in territorial disputes under China's nine-dash line, China challenges Indonesia's maritime claims in the area. As Defence Minister, Prabowo adopted a firm stance against Chinese incursions into Indonesian waters. However, Indonesia’s joint communique with China raised concerns about its willingness to compromise, unsettling ASEAN members like the Philippines. The quiet approach to China’s pressure on the Muslim population in Xinjiang, along with a tacit endorsement of Beijing’s vision for a new global structure, were seen as signals of Indonesia’s reluctance to confront China directly. Indonesia’s ambiguous stance may complicate ongoing negotiations on the South China Sea Code of Conduct, already hampered by divisions within the ASEAN.
Another contentious issue is Myanmar. Jokowi's administration supported Brunei's leadership in pursuing the Five-Point Consensus, which Myanmar's military junta has largely ignored. With Thailand and neighbouring countries engaging Myanmar's junta directly, Prabowo may favour non-intervention, doubting ASEAN's ability to enforce meaningful change.
Foreign Minister Sugiono’s absence from an ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, because he had to accompany Prabowo to a D-8 summit further highlights Indonesia's shifting priorities. This reflects Prabowo's broader strategy of engaging globally, expanding Indonesia's influence beyond ASEAN.
Ultimately, Prabowo aims to balance relations with both the US and China, fostering strategic ties without alienating either power. The US, once critical of Prabowo, has softened its stance, signalling openness to deeper cooperation. Prabowo seeks increased US economic engagement while strengthening ties with China, reflecting Indonesia's pragmatic approach to global competition.
Indonesia is also striving towards energy self-sufficiency in the green sector. By 2033, it hopes to transition its state-owned electricity company into a renewable energy provider, targeting 75 percent of the nation’s energy needs to be met through renewable sources by 2050.
Climate goals under Prabowo
Indonesia, under Prabowo’s leadership, has announced at the APEC and G20 summits, that it plans to accelerate its climate goals. The country now aims to achieve its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) for carbon emissions by 2050, a decade earlier than the previously declared 2060 target. To align with the Paris Agreement, Indonesia plans to phase out all coal plants by 2040. For a major coal-producing country, this is quite ambitious.
Indonesia is also striving towards energy self-sufficiency in the green sector. By 2033, it hopes to transition its state-owned electricity company into a renewable energy provider, targeting 75 percent of the nation’s energy needs to be met through renewable sources by 2050. To achieve this, Indonesia estimates a requirement of US$1.2 trillion for energy storage and green transmission infrastructure.
To finance this transition, Indonesia is exploring blended and hybrid finance solutions, as well as carbon trading. With the potential to offset 600 million tons of carbon dioxide, Indonesia’s expansive forest cover is a key asset. The government plans to rehabilitate over 12 million hectares of land damaged by forest fires, sparking interest in Indonesia’s energy sector and its carbon trading market. This makes Indonesia an emerging leader in global climate negotiations and sustainable investment, allowing it to become a part of local solutions rather than an outlier. Instead of resisting climate solutions, it will now work with the Just Energy Transition Partnership.
Recognising the world's pressing issues, from Gaza to Ukraine, Prabowo views an active foreign policy as essential to elevating Indonesia's international standing and attracting broader support for its ambitions.
Gurjit Singh has served as India's ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union.
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