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With rising climate and cyber risks, India and Australia could steer Five Eyes into a new era of Indo-Pacific resilience.
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The Five Eyes alliance—comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US)—has long been regarded as one of the most effective intelligence-sharing networks. Established during World War II, it leverages signals intelligence (SIGINT), human intelligence (HUMINT), and geospatial intelligence (GEOINT), which are instrumental in counterterrorism, cybersecurity, and geopolitical monitoring. Its resilience, however, came under strain amid recent geopolitical shifts and strategic divergences among member states.
The Five Eyes alliance has been remarkably stable for decades, but recent tensions between members have raised concerns about its long-term viability. On the political front, shifting US foreign policy priorities, including its willingness to halt intelligence-sharing with allies such as Ukraine, signal a transactional approach to alliances.
For Australia, situated at the strategic crossroads of the Indo-Pacific, and India, an emerging regional power, this situation presents both risks and opportunities. Reorienting Five Eyes as a climate security intelligence hub might sound like a bold pivot, but doing so could pre-empt climate-driven resource conflicts, migration crises, and disinformation. For both countries, this is a strategic opportunity to lead, blending gendered and humanitarian priorities with robust intelligence-sharing.
The Five Eyes alliance has been remarkably stable for decades, but recent tensions between members have raised concerns about its long-term viability. On the political front, shifting US foreign policy priorities, including its willingness to halt intelligence-sharing with allies such as Ukraine, signal a transactional approach to alliances. Reports also surfaced regarding possible US plans to remove Canada from the alliance owing to security concerns. Economically, trade disputes such as US tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium resulted in enhanced friction, raising concerns about disagreement spillovers into security cooperation.
Intelligence-sharing agreements enabling real-time threat monitoring are crucial for national security. Another vital component of this security framework extends to climate security. India faces climate-driven instability from Himalayan water disputes, monsoon variability, to coastal displacement. A weakened Five Eyes reduces Australia’s access to critical intelligence, essential in addressing regional climate stressors such as—floods, droughts, and sea-level rise. In addition, disproportionately affected by resource scarcity, women and indigenous communities stand to lose the most.
According to the Gender Snapshot 2024 report published in April 2025, climate change is projected to push an additional 158 million women and girls into poverty by 2050, which is approximately 16 million more than the corresponding figure for men and boys.. In India, existing social vulnerabilities such as a lack of access to resources and decision-making power make it increasingly difficult for Dalit and tribal groups to seek support and recovery in the aftermath of climate disasters. In Australia, climate-induced sea-level rise and coastal erosion have already impacted Aboriginal communities in the Torres Strait, threatening homes, cultural sites, and livelihoods.
Furthermore, a cohesive intelligence alliance is also crucial for countering foreign disinformation, which increasingly would include climate disinformation. False narratives about climate impacts, resource availability, and climate-induced migration can exploit national vulnerabilities and undermine governments’ climate actions. In India, during the 2020–2021 farmer protests, a surge of misinformation—including doctored images and misleading claims—portrayed it as influenced by separatist elements. On the other hand, Australian climate-sceptic misinformation campaigns have evolved, shifting focus from outright denial to emphasising economic concerns and energy security.
A weakened Five Eyes reduces Australia’s access to critical intelligence, essential in addressing regional climate stressors such as—floods, droughts, and sea-level rise. In addition, disproportionately affected by resource scarcity, women and indigenous communities stand to lose the most.
In the international realm, China and Russia actively use cyber tools and propaganda to shape political narratives and public opinion. Beijing reportedly used information warfare tactics to sway public sentiment in Australia, through state-sponsored media and covert influence networks, according to an Australian Strategic Policy Institute 2023 report. Between 2023-24, the Australian Government used its autonomous cyber sanctions framework to sanction two Russian citizens for their roles in cybercrime activities, for the first time.
These tactics intersect with gendered and intersectional disinformation since women face targeted harassment when voicing climate concerns, and vulnerable groups lack resilience against manipulated narratives. These ongoing threats create an opportunity for the Five Eyes to expand its focus towards climate security by integrating India’s digital forensics expertise and Australia’s SIGINT capabilities, to ensure cross-verified, unbiased intelligence.
As climate change increasingly strains critical infrastructure such as energy grids and water systems, these systems become prime targets for sophisticated cyberattacks. In 2022, Chinese hackers targeted India’s power hubs, even though New Delhi denied the operations’ success. In May 2025, the Indian government debunked disinformation that a cyberattack by Pakistan caused 70 percent of India’s electricity grid to become dysfunctional. Australia’s University of New South Wales (UNSW)-Canberra cybersecurity expert Nigel Phair estimated in 2021 that cybercrime cost the economy about AU$ 42 billion annually. Additionally, despite tightening regulations, the Australian Cyber Security Centre’s 2023-2024 report highlights that critical services, including energy and healthcare, make up 11 percent of all reported incidents.
Nonetheless, climate-related cybersecurity goes beyond generic solutions. Therefore, a fragmented Five-Eyes alliance would undermine joint cybersecurity initiatives. Here, a focused India-Australia partnership leveraging the former’s Information Technology (IT) expertise and the latter’s cyber infrastructure could offer a practical synergy. The two could collaborate on co-developing AI-driven tools such as automated intrusion detection systems for power grids or predictive flood warning systems, to safeguard both nations’ critical assets alongside prioritising human security outcomes.
Climate shocks such as drought, food scarcity or land degradation can intensify competition and conflict between communities, creating economic grievances that violent extremist groups are likely to exploit. While direct causality is complex, climate change is increasingly recognised as a ‘threat multiplier’, exacerbating existing fragilities. ‘Climate-driven radicalisation’—a term not yet widely established—has been explored by institutions such as the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT), the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and the United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI), more as a concept.
In 2016, the Adelphi think tank highlighted how swiftly terrorist groups recruit and control civilian populations by exploiting natural disasters and resource shortages. In their 2019 policy brief, the ICCT also discussed how climate-induced challenges such as droughts and water shortages made joining non-state armed groups a more tempting alternative for affected populations. In Chad, UNICRI laid out in its 2020 and 2022 reports that resource scarcity and environmental degradation played a role in driving communities toward violent extremism. In 2024, the Harvard International Review noted similar patterns in Indonesia, where environmental destruction and displacement correlated with the growth of radical Islamic groups.
Considering that the 2025 Global Terrorism Index ranks Australia as one of the worst 50 countries for terrorism, climate-induced deprivation and economic shocks could become fertile grounds for survivalist ideologies that target migrants, indigenous groups, and climate activists. Therefore, India’s experience in counterinsurgency and Australia’s maritime intelligence capacities can complementarily map climate-driven radicalisation. A climate security hub, enhanced by personnel exchanges in intelligence units and fusing GEOINT and HUMINT to track these threats, would ensure no signal is missed.
Australia and India are already cooperating through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue alongside Japan and the US. While the Five Eyes alliance remains an intelligence-focused consortium, the Quad offers a broader, complementary framework for integrating climate resilience into Indo-Pacific security cooperation.
The Quad’s Climate Working Group (QCWG), launched in 2021, seeks to strengthen cooperation on climate resilience. In 2022, the partners launched Q-CHAMP (Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package) to advance joint action in critical sectors such as disaster risk reduction and climate information services. These themes mirror the evolving concerns relevant to Five Eyes. For example, maritime resilience overlaps with GEOINT priorities of monitoring maritime trafficking, and clean energy systems and water access are tightly coupled with cybersecurity risks, especially in climate-sensitive regions.
‘Climate-driven radicalisation’—a term not yet widely established—has been explored by institutions such as the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT), the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and the United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI), more as a concept.
Therefore, strengthening the interface between Five Eyes and the Quad could enable cross-pollination of intelligence capabilities and climate resilience efforts. The US and Australia, as members of both groupings, could serve as institutional bridges facilitating intelligence-informed climate-resilience programs. Additionally, India and Japan could be integrated into specific climate intelligence programmes such as maritime and cyber monitoring. Joint climate-intelligence working groups could serve as pilot platforms, combining Five Eyes’ technical strengths with the Quad’s thematic breadth, bridging real-time intelligence with equitable access and regional diplomacy.
Reforming Five Eyes to include a climate security mandate while deepening partnerships with India aligns with Australia’s national interests of Indo-Pacific stability, climate resilience, and regional influence. For India, greater alignment with Five Eyes enhances regional leadership, maritime security and technological capabilities. Furthermore, with both countries increasingly acknowledging climate security as an extension of national security, it is imperative to reshape traditional intelligence architectures to address new environmental risks.
The Five Eyes is at a pivotal moment, presenting an opportunity to refocus its intelligence capabilities and redirect them to address climate-related security challenges. Australia and India are strategically positioned to lead this evolution by fusing diverse intelligence sources through well-drafted frameworks that take digital sovereignty into strict account.
However, intelligence liaison inherently involves complexities. Digital sovereignty remains a central concern for India, which has historically preferred cautious engagement with external intelligence frameworks. Similarly, Australia’s commitment to Five Eyes interoperability limits the extent of external data sharing. Cooperation must be grounded in co-developed data protocols, shared ethics guidelines, and mutual capacity building to address this effectively.
Australia and India can steer Five Eyes toward greater relevance as a climate security intelligence hub through two key pathways:
Merging India’s strengths in digital forensics with Australia’s SIGINT capabilities to counter climate disinformation and bias-targeted narratives. They could co-develop AI tools to secure critical infrastructure and detect false climate narratives targeting women, Indigenous groups and migrant communities.
To mitigate climate-driven radicalisation, Australia and India could initiate a joint climate-security fusion cell that maps emerging threats, leveraging each other’s expertise and sharing HUMINT and GEOINT. Through personnel exchanges and limited-scope agreements, both could share actionable intelligence while respecting sovereignty concerns.
Both countries could also invest in climate-focused capacity-building across the Indo-Pacific. This would reinforce their reputations as regional security providers and align with their respective outreach strategies—India’s Act East policy and Australia’s Pacific Step-Up programme.
The Five Eyes is at a pivotal moment, presenting an opportunity to refocus its intelligence capabilities and redirect them to address climate-related security challenges. Australia and India are strategically positioned to lead this evolution by fusing diverse intelligence sources through well-drafted frameworks that take digital sovereignty into strict account. This allows both countries to mitigate resource conflicts, migration crises, and disinformation. It also includes addressing the nuanced interplay between climate impacts and radicalisation. Additionally, integrating gendered and humanitarian priorities will ensure protection and equitable treatment of women and other vulnerable groups. Such a strategic reorientation represents essential foresight, forging a resilient and relevant intelligence paradigm for navigating a climate-altered world.
Jeethu Cherian is a United Nations Fellow (UNITAR Global Diplomacy Initiative) and an Asia-Pacific Lead Analyst at Janes.
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Jeethu Cherian is a United Nations Fellow (UNITAR Global Diplomacy Initiative) and an Asia-Pacific Lead Analyst at Janes. ...
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