The Russia-leaning Georgian Dream party has secured victory in the recent parliamentary elections amidst Opposition allegations of potential electoral misconduct
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Georgia has long been caught in a tug-of-war for influence between Russia and the West. In the recent parliamentary elections that were held in October 2024, the Georgian Dream party had a resounding victory. Yet, the streets of Tbilisi have since been engulfed by protests against alleged rigging in the elections. These tensions provoked the biggest demonstrations in Georgia’s political history, with potentially momentous consequences for the democratic consolidation of this South Caucasian republic. The first session of Georgia's new parliament, which convened this week on 25 November, was decried as illegitimate and boycotted by the Opposition.
Both sides of the political aisle ratcheted up the electoral campaign rhetoric over Georgia’s foreign policy alignment and its prospective European Union (EU) accession.
The first session of Georgia's new parliament, which convened this week on 25 November, was decried as illegitimate and boycotted by the Opposition.
For the first time in its electoral history, Georgia introduced electronic voting and, through EU-facilitated reforms, adopted a fully proportional representation system, ensuring that mandates are allocated by each party's vote share. A total of 18 parties and coalitions contested the elections. The Georgian Dream party, which has held power since 2012, secured almost 54 percent of the vote, winning 89 out of 150 seats in the Georgian Parliament and was re-elected for a fourth term.
The Georgian Dream party maintained its strong foothold in the relatively rural areas of Samtskhe-Javakheti, Kvemo Kartli, and Adjara. Data from the Central Election Commission shows close races in other large cities, such as Kutaisi (Imereti), Poti (Samegrelo), and Batumi (Adjara), where the party finished below 50 percent but received more votes than the four pro-Western Opposition coalitions. In the Opposition-run Tsalenjikha (Samegrelo), the Dream Party finished with 48 percent, which is also more than the share of the four Opposition alliances combined. In Mingrelia, where Opposition parties, especially the United National Movement, were strongest in the 2021 local elections, the Georgian Dream party (GD) reversed the trend and won all districts. However, the party faced opposition in urban centres, losing the capital Tbilisi and Rustavi with 42.2 percent and 41.4 percent of the vote, respectively. The party also lost ground to the Opposition among the Georgian diaspora, despite the government’s effort to establish 67 polling stations in 42 countries to facilitate their participation. In addition, GD failed to attain an absolute majority in the Parliament that would allow it to make sweeping constitutional changes.
Interestingly, the Unity–to Save Georgia (UNM) alliance, previously the largest Opposition group led in absentia by Mikheil Saakashvili, received only 10.16 percent of the vote share, less than half of what it received in the 2020 elections. Instead, the Coalition for Change, a new alliance that drew some of UNM’s leaders, became the largest Opposition block, securing second place with a little over 11 percent of the vote. Overall, the four Opposition parties that crossed the 5 percent threshold required to enter the Parliament, collectively received 37.8 percent of the vote.
The party faced opposition in urban centres, losing the capital Tbilisi and Rustavi with 42.2 percent and 41.4 percent of the vote, respectively.
However, the Opposition decried the elections as fraudulent, pushing the country into a national political crisis. Various international and domestic observers reported alleged electoral malfeasance, coercion, voter intimidation, and the misuse of state and administrative machinery, resulting in widespread protests by tens of thousands of Georgian citizens and civil society groups. President Salome Zourabichvili, a former ally turned critic of the Georgian Dream party, went so far as to denounce the vote as a ‘Russian special operation’.
The autumn elections took place against the backdrop of a highly polarised and volatile political landscape. In the last few years, the Georgian Dream party has faced criticism for allegedly exploiting its legislative power to advance anti-Western rhetoric, thereby impeding Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Several contentious policies, especially the foreign agents’ law (dubbed as Russian Law), acted as a substantial catalyst for the current stalemate. The pro-Western Opposition united under President Zourabichvili and signed the Georgian Charter to restore Georgia’s path to EU integration.
However, despite massive political protests and rallies by the Georgians, 89 percent of whom support accession to the EU, the Dream Party seems poised for a fourth term. The key to its large margin of victory lies in its relatively strong foothold amongst the socially conservative sections of society, as well as Georgia’s rural areas. Its victory was also facilitated by a fragmented Opposition lacking in unity, leadership, and integrative principles. The Georgian Dream party’s electoral campaign centred around ambitious economic targets such as achieving a national output of 130 billion Georgian Lari, raising pensions and salaries, reducing unemployment, enhancing healthcare and agriculture, and becoming energy self-sufficient by 2030, which appears to have resonated with voters. In this context, the party also announced its intent to expedite the construction of a four-lane highway connecting Tbilisi and Batumi, and to complete infrastructure projects connecting Georgia with Azerbaijan and Armenia. Moreover, the Georgian Dream party’s narrative which categorises the polls as a dichotomy of “war versus peace” and “traditional values versus moral decay” appears to have been more persuasive than the Opposition’s presentation of Georgia’s future as a binary choice between Russia and the EU.
Despite massive political protests and rallies by the Georgians, 89 percent of whom support accession to the EU, the Dream Party seems poised for a fourth term.
The Georgian Dream Party aims to fulfil 90 percent of its EU Association Agreement by 2028, while simultaneously maintaining a pragmatic posture towards Russia. This strategy of ‘balanced diversification’ protects its national sovereignty, keeping in mind the context of the 2008 Russo-Georgian conflict, in which Georgia lost 20 percent of its territory, including the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
For Tbilisi, a complete disengagement with Moscow is insurmountable. This narrative is likely to have resonated with Georgian voters, of which at least 20 percent are entrenched in poverty and prioritise both economic growth and national security.
The Georgian Dream party’s claimed victory drew polarised reactions from global leaders in the region and beyond. Georgia’s Western allies called for investigations into alleged electoral manipulation. On the other hand, Russia and its allies in the region, including Hungary, Slovakia, and Azerbaijan, endorsed the party’s victory. Following the first parliamentary session that convened this week, the incumbent President sought redress at the Constitutional Court and labelled it a ‘Black Monday’ for the nation. Meanwhile, the Georgian Parliament passed a draft resolution to hold the next presidential election on 14 December, where the president, for the first time, will be chosen by an electoral college instead of a popular vote.
Moving forward, the Georgian Dream government is likely to walk a delicate tightrope in balancing the expectations of both Moscow and Brussels, while striving to overcome its crisis of legitimacy.
Jayaa Auplish is a Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation
Shairee Malhotra is the Deputy Director of the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Jayaa Auplish is a Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation ...
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Shairee Malhotra is Deputy Director - Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation. Her areas of work include Indian foreign policy with a focus on ...
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