Most Indian cities are witnessing population growth, although at different speeds. An Oxford Economics report estimated that between 2019 and 2035, 17 of the 20 fastest-growing cities in the world will be from India. Surat, Agra, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Nagpur, Tirupur, and Rajkot would lead the pack. The only exceptions presently are the cantonments in India, where populations generally have exhibited a flat or downward trend. While the country witnessed general urbanisation between 2001 and 2011 with an overall decadal population increase of an average of 1.62 percent, 27 of the 62 cantonments in India lost populations.
Over two decades of fertility rates being below replacement levels caused this decline, further exacerbated by a negative net migration rate and the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, many cities around the world have entered a phase of population decline. A feature story of the World Bank on Eastern Europe and Central Asia discloses that cities in the two regions are experiencing an overall decline in their populations. To begin with, countries in this region witnessed high urbanisation, and, by 1989, around 64 percent of the population resided in urban settlements. Between 2000 and 2010, however, 61 percent of the cities in the region had lost an average of 11 percent of their population. Over two decades of fertility rates being below replacement levels caused this decline, further exacerbated by a negative net migration rate and the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, since most of the urbanisation had already occurred in the developed world, urbanisation tended to more or less plateau in these countries.
Post 2020, in Europe, nine out of every 10 metropolitan area lost population. In the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the earlier average growth rate of +0.3 percent recorded by European cities turned negative at -0.3 percent per annum. This trend was particularly manifest in cities with populations of 500,000 and above. However, while the pandemic may have been the cause for the demographic decline in the short run, it is natural population decline that, in the long run, would be the primary cause of the decline. While some regions are expected to have moderate urban population growth, some Spanish cities (Barcelona, Madrid, Valencia), Portuguese cities (Porto), Lithuanian cities (Vilnius), and cities in Germany and the Iberian Peninsula are slated for a population decline. As a whole, urban population in western Europe grew by 0.7 percent between 1990 and 2015. However, the future estimate for the years between 2015 and 2025 is a decline of 0.5 percent, and for the years between 2025 and 2035, a drop of 0.4 percent. However, there is a good degree of population variance among cities. While some are in demographic decline, others, such as Berlin, London, Oslo, Paris, and Stockholm, continue to show some growth.
The populations of Nagoya and Tokyo witnessed some urban growth backed by internal migration.
Regarding China, a CNN report, quoting the Census and Statistics Department figures released in 2022, states that Hong Kong has recorded its sharpest annual drop in population. Its population dropped from 7.4 million to 7.29 million, a decrease of 1.6 percent. The latest Chinese census data also recorded a population decline in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. While this is partly attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, Beijing and Shanghai also lost populations due to a conscious decision by the administration to restrict population size. Over time, however, it would be fair to assume that with a decline in China’s population (estimated to stand at 1.32 billion by 2050), other cities would face the prospect of population loss. In Japan, the urban population is entering a phase of severe crisis. The country’s urbanisation grew by 0.9 percent between 1990 and 2015 and fell to 0.6 percent between 2010 and 2015. The populations of Nagoya and Tokyo witnessed some urban growth backed by internal migration. However, almost 40 percent of Japan’s urban settlements declined between 2012 and 2015. It is estimated that, going forward, Japan’s biggest cities are likely to lose about 20 percent of their population by the year 2050.
In the United States (US), the big cities have shown population declines between 2000 and 2021. The annual growth for cities above 250,000 population during that period was -0.95 percent, on average. Among the 88 US cities with populations over 250,000, 77 showed either slower growth or greater declines and 14 experienced population losses. Cities that revealed the greatest percentage losses were San Francisco, New York, Washington, DC, Boston, St. Louis and Atlanta. However, it must be clarified that the US urban system is much more diversified and reveals considerable differences in the pattern of their urban footprints compared to Japan or Western Europe. While growth in some cities is shrinking and flattening in others, other cities continue to experience high population growth.
Cities that revealed the greatest percentage losses were San Francisco, New York, Washington, DC, Boston, St. Louis and Atlanta.
The overall demographic decline in cities of the developed world bodes ill for their once-booming economies, driven significantly by population growth over several decades. Now, with declining fertility rates, ageing populations and reduced rural-to-urban migration, many cities in the developed world will likely face growing economic decline. While some cities continue to show growth, this looks more like a factor of population movement from one urban settlement to another to avoid the aftereffects of economic weakening in some cities. Over time, the competition between cities to shore up their economies will intensify as they devise local strategies to raise productivity. One of these strategies would be to attract highly skilled and talented individuals and successful businesses that would add value to their economies. However, these strategies are replicable and likely to be commonly adopted by many cities. City administrations may have to cut down on expenditures, social welfare schemes and expensive infrastructure. Some of these are most likely to be very unpopular with citizens, and democratic countries will always find it challenging to make unpopular and largely controversial decisions in regard to tightening the economic belt for fear of political and electoral backlash. Economic decline and the rise of unemployment have shown a global proclivity to fuel crime. Such a situation cannot be ruled out in declining cities of the developed world.
India is currently at the stage of greater urbanisation. This stage will likely remain unimpeded for several decades and may continue until the country reaches very high degrees of urbanisation as in the West. Therefore, few parallels can be currently drawn on this score between the Western and Indian cities. Indian cities must continue to contend with large, incoming numbers and add economic, physical, social and recreational infrastructure to provide for them. Hence, whereas cities in the developed world must manage the negative impacts of population loss, Indian cities would continue to struggle to meet fresh targets of providing for more people. However, it is important to remember that India’s population will stabilise and then decrease at some stage in the next few decades. We have seen that with economic prosperity, India’s women will enjoy greater economic independence. Democracies will provide them greater freedoms within the family and outside and greater control over their bodies. With these salutary changes, the burden of producing children and the readiness to bear the responsibility of bringing them up will most likely going to wane among women. This is, therefore, one of the most vital questions that would face the country and its cities – how to prevent the population decline of the country and its cities. India may escape the conundrum in which Western societies find themselves today if it is able to devise a way by which men and women are able to raise a family without compromising on individual freedoms and aspirations.
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Dr. Ramanath Jha is Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Mumbai. He works on urbanisation — urban sustainability, urban governance and urban planning. Dr. Jha belongs ...
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