The European Commission's new guidelines prioritise seven areas for 2024-2029. To what extent it can deliver on this ambitious agenda over the next five years remains to be seen.
The last time the European Commission laid out its five-year priorities was in 2019, only to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic a few months later, and then confront the return of war on the continent in 2022. Under European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s first term, the European Union (EU) spearheaded a joint COVID-19 vaccine rollout, adopted an ambitious green deal, diversified its energy sources away from Russia, passed 13 rounds of sanctions against that country, attempted to recalibrate its relationship with China, and passed the world’s first Artificial Intelligence (AI) regulation act.
On 18 July, von der Leyen secured a second term to head the EU’s most powerful institution by gaining 401 votes, way past the 360 majority required in the 719-member European Parliament. Simultaneously, the European Commission released its policy guidelines aka priority areas for the 2024-2029 legislative cycle, as determined by the Commission President in conjunction with the Council’s strategic agenda (based on the EU’s 27 member states) and groups within the European Parliament. In von der Leyen’s own words, “The next five years will define Europe’s place in the world for the next five decades. It will decide whether we shape our own future or let it be shaped by events or by others”. In this dramatic global context, the European Commission has laid out the following seven priority areas.
The Commission guidelines acknowledge the dangers of supply chain weaponisation and lopsided dependencies whether in the energy, health, or raw materials sectors. At the core of its institutional priorities is the need to deepen the European Single Market in defence, energy, digital, and other domains.
While affirming the goals put forward in the European Green Deal and the need to decarbonise the European economy, it aims to create a new Clean Industrial Deal that emphasises competitiveness and jobs, while supporting companies to reach their emission-reduction targets.
The Commission aims to develop new Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships with third countries to “help secure supply of raw materials, clean energy and clean tech”, while attracting greater investment in these industries through cooperation with the European Investment Bank, and by completing the Capital Markets Union with its estimated potential to attract €470 billion investment annually.
The Commission aims to develop new Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships with third countries to “help secure supply of raw materials, clean energy and clean tech”.
The pharmaceutical and health sectors are highlighted as areas where Europe needs to achieve better resilience and less dependence. To this end, a Critical Medicines Act has been announced.
The guidelines concede Europe’s lower productivity and attribute this to the “insufficient diffusion of digital technologies”. They aim to deepen the Digital Services Act and Digital Markets Act while emphasising the need for European advancement in science, research, innovation, and cutting-edge technologies.
As a sign of just how much has changed for Europe since the Russia-Ukraine war, this new section, that did not feature in the Commission’s 2019-2024 priorities, affirms continued support for Ukraine, while admitting Europe’s lack of investment in military capabilities.
To this end, a key priority for the current Commission is to create a European Defence Union spearheaded by a new Commissioner for Defence. This will be aimed at creating a “Single Market for Defence products and services, enhancing production capacity and fostering joint procurement” and “incentivising private defence investment”, all while strengthening the EU-NATO partnership, and in line with the European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS). Yet with member state capitals retaining control over defence, the EU’s goals of rejuvenating European defence are far from easily attainable.
A key priority for the current Commission is to create a European Defence Union spearheaded by a new Commissioner for Defence.
The goal is also to improve the EU’s crisis and security preparedness, cyber defence capabilities, ability to fight organised crime and counter-terrorism, and revamp border management by supporting Frontex and tripling European Border and Coast guard personnel to 30,000.
The third priority focuses on improving European citizens’ quality of life, which is being adversely impacted through high costs of living and rising inequalities. This section also emphasises the need to factor in youth voices amidst concerns about social media's impact on citizen well-being. A new post-2025 Gender Equality Strategy and anti-racism strategy are also being proposed.
In its initial 100 days, the Commission pledges to adopt an Agriculture and Food vision aimed at balancing the farming sector’s competitiveness with sustainability, while also ensuring a balance between good oceanic governance, sustainability, and advancing the blue economy. A new Water Resilience Strategy is also being proposed.
The Commission proposes a European Democracy Shield to counter threats of disinformation and online interference emanating from both internal and International sources. Upholding the rule of law and strengthening checks and balances will remain a core priority, along with attaching conditions to EU funds. In addition, the EU aims to increase citizen and civil society engagement through European Citizens’ Panels.
The document acknowledges the current era of geostrategic rivalries, “a new league of authoritarian states”, and the weaponisation of policy areas from migration to energy, in addition to China’s aggressive posture and “no-limits” partnership with Russia. In this context, it emphasises a new foreign policy that involves working with like-minded partners to counter this dangerous reality. It advocates for EU enlargement as well as greater engagement with the wider Mediterranean region, with the appointment of Commissioners dedicated to working on these areas. It also calls for a more active role in the Middle East and pushing for a two-state solution.
The document recognises the intertwined nature of geopolitics and geoeconomics, and the need for a new economic foreign policy with European competitiveness and greater investments in strategic technologies. It simultaneously asserts the need to protect the European economy from security concerns while “dealing with strategic competitors and systemic rivals” through export controls, better inbound and outbound investment screening, and working with partners to ensure supply chain resilience.(The EU’s 2019 Strategic Outlook on China labels the country as a partner, competitor and systemic rival). In this context, the EU also pledges to strengthen its free trade links with global partners in favour of balanced and reciprocal trade, and in tandem with WTO reforms.
The document recognises the intertwined nature of geopolitics and geoeconomics, and the need for a new economic foreign policy with European competitiveness and greater investments in strategic technologies.
Critically, the guidelines admit the outdated and inequitable nature of the current multilateral system and assert Europe’s role in reforming this beginning with the upcoming UN Summit for the Future. They also recognise third country partner concerns linked to European laws such those enshrined in the Green Deal.
The document reinforces the EU’s Global Gateway strategy, and the centrality of the Indo-Pacific region to its interests. It affirms the need to intensify Europe’s Indo-Pacific engagement that will include a new Strategic EU-India Agenda as well as greater cooperation with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand to deter potential Chinese aggression. It also reiterates the importance of the EU-Africa and EU-CELAC partnerships.
The final priority focuses on an ambitious reform agenda for Europe alongside strengthening the relationship between the European Commission and the European Parliament. During von der Leyen’s first term, the Commission was criticised for power grabs and overstepping its role from other institutions and national capitals.
To what extent the European Commission can deliver on this ambitious agenda over the next five years remains to be seen. Yet the priorities laid out and the rationale behind them may further pave the way for a more “geopolitical Commission” under von der Leyen’s second term.
Shairee Malhotra is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Shairee Malhotra is Associate Fellow, Europe with ORF’s Strategic Studies Programme. Her areas of work include Indian foreign policy with a focus on EU-India relations, ...
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