Counterterror ops in Kashmir in the times of COVID-19

While the world is trying hard to combat the COVID-19 catastrophe, Pakistan is busy fomenting fresh trouble inside Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and along the Line of Control (LoC). The events staged by Islamabad in the past four months clearly indicate its sinister plans to escalate its terrorism strategies during the upcoming summer months.

Pakistan’s intentions were clear at the very beginning of the year when ceasefire violations started gaining pace. In mid-March, Islamabad used the SAARC video conference on COVID-19 to push its Kashmir agenda. The encounter in Keran sector in the Kupwara district of North Kashmir in early April followed by the latest Handwara encounter (again in North Kashmir) and continuous counter operations in South Kashmir — including the elimination of Hizbul Mujahideen chief Riyaz Naikoo — point at intensified terror operations inside J&K.

Pakistan’s intentions were clear at the very beginning of the year when ceasefire violations started gaining pace.

Pakistan’s upping the ante in J&K was expected following the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A in August last year. The abrupt decision by the Modi government left Pakistan perplexed. The calm that prevailed in the Valley after the state of J&K was shrunk to a Union Territory robbed Pakistan of its chances to exploit the situation and carry forward its terror agenda. Since then, Islamabad has been restlessly trying to pursue means to keep the Kashmir pot boiling. Now, with the onset of summer, Pakistan is looking at the period of March to September as the most opportune time to push in terrorists.

Pakistan is also exploiting the COVID-19 pandemic situation in J&K. Thanks to the hardline approach of Indian security forces, the number of terrorists in J&K is too low for Pakistan to continue with its terror agenda throughout the summer season. However, the Indian security forces, not fearing COVID-19, have ensured that the gains made in last eight months do not slip away. In the given circumstances, if the virus gets aggressive inside J&K and as reported, if Pakistan succeeds in sending terrorists infected with coronavirus, it would generate unprecedented situations for the forces — hampering their primary task of dominating the streets, jungles and villages in of the region.

Thanks to the hardline approach of Indian security forces, the number of terrorists in J&K is too low for Pakistan to continue with its terror agenda throughout the summer season.

Anticipating the Pakistani designs, the security forces had already put their strategy in place. They have stayed ahead of the terrorists and the virus. The army has managed to control the movement of civilians and also served the Kashmiris with food and essential medical services. It has put in place SoPs for care and scientific handling of bodies of terrorists killed along the LoC and inside the Valley, just in case the slain person was infected. Similarly, the state police authorities have decided to bury the slain terrorists under the supervision of the district magistrate, instead of handing it over to the families. In addition, the security forces have also resorted to extraordinary measures to control the spread of the disease in residential pockets. Roads leading to all the areas that have witnessed the spread of COVID-19 cases have been barricaded with iron beams laid over concrete foundations. This has been done to bar traffic movement through the locality and to ensure locals stayed inside and no one went in from outside. Assistance to the the local administration in contact tracing and keeping a tab on the movement of people in the infected zones through hi-tech surveillance and smartphone mapping apps has also been given.

The forces have done a fine job of maintaining peace in large parts of J&K, but the situation is dynamic. It would be too early to make a comment on how J&K, especially the Valley, would react to elimination of terrorist commanders. The elimination of Hizbul Mujahideen commander Riaz Naikoo may ignite a fresh wave of street protests. Terror infested areas such as Shopian, Pulwama, Bandipora, Kulgam and Awantipora are also affected with COVID-19. What remains to be seen is how the over ground workers (OGW) would react.

It would be too early to make a comment on how J&K, especially the Valley, would react to elimination of terrorist commanders.

In last four months, the army has eliminated close to 60 terrorists, 30 in April alone. Islamabad is uncomfortable with this depleting strength, resulting in Pakistani army increasing the intensity of its ceasefire violations. Since January, it has activated various sectors in Rajouri and Poonch in the Jammu region and in Kupwara in North Kashmir. According to Indian army, between January and March, Pakistan violated the ceasefire agreement 1,144 times, with the highest number of violations (411) being reported in March. The figure is astounding, because, according to official figures, Pakistan resorted to just 3,200 violations during the entire year of 2019.

In the last 16 years, the Indian army has adopted several methods — both human intelligence (HUMINT) and technical intelligence (TECHINT) to stop terrorists from infiltrating on to this side of the LoC. However, the large gaps in the unfenced nullahs, which are difficult to be manned, and damage to the obstacle systems due to heavy snowfall makes foolproof surveillance along the LoC a difficult prospect. The army is working to re-calibrate its counter-infiltration grid, but given the difficult expanse of the terrain, terrorists do manage to infiltrate under the proper security cover provided by the Pakistani army through heavy artillery fire and BAT (Border Action Team) action support.

Terrorists trained in Pakistan are a different breed in terms of their training, weapons handling and radicalisation, who can do more damage compared to the local recruits.

According to reports, over 300 terrorists are waiting at 16 launchpads across the LoC to sneak into India. A majority of these belong to Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM). A heavy presence of these terrorists has been spotted across the Leepa Valley, Neelam Valley, Dudniyal, Dumail, Sardari and Dhakki. JeM terrorists are also reportedly waiting at the Samani-Bhimber and Dhudnial launchpads in the PoK, while the LeT terrorists are camping at launchpads in Leepa and Neelam Valley. As part of its summer strategy for the Valley, Pakistan has also activated launch pads in Sialkot across the international border (IB) and is also trying to revive the Harkat-ul-Jihad-e-Islami (HUJI) in PoK to facilitate infiltration.

Recently, the Indian army sustained casualties in the Keran sector and Handwara encounters at the hands of the foreign terrorists and Kashmiri boys trained in Pakistan. Terrorists trained in Pakistan are a different breed in terms of their training, weapons handling and radicalisation, who can do more damage compared to the local recruits. The details behind the encounters will emerge in due course of time, but for now, Pakistan is busy writing a fresh chapter of violence in North Kashmir by keeping the LoC active.

Just as in the past, the foreign terrorists will have no respect and mercy for the locals. The hostage crisis, which was at the centre of the Handwara encounter, is an indication of the times to come.

Over the past few years, especially after the Burhan Wani episode, the security forces have focused on South Kashmir and a majority of the terrorists eliminated have been local Kashmiri boys. However, with the Keran sector and Handwara encouters, the focus appears to be shifting to North Kashmir. Once known for foreign terrorists from Pakistan and Afghanistan, revival of terrorism here would pose a whole new challenge. Just as in the past, the foreign terrorists will have no respect and mercy for the locals. The hostage crisis, which was at the centre of the Handwara encounter, is an indication of the times to come.

Due to COVID-19, movement is restricted in the border areas as well, making it difficult for the OGWs to help terrorists travel long distance towards the hinterlands. In other words, in coming weeks, the battleground in all probability, could be the LoC and the villages dotting the vicinity. However, if the terrorists succeed in dodging the security forces around the LoC, the hinterlands will experience fierce kinetic operations as well. Indian security forces need to have one eye on the LoC, the other on North Kashmir, while not losing vision of South Kashmir — all this while safeguarding the people and themselves from the invisible threat posed by the COVID-19 outbreak.

---

• Defence and Security
• India
• Neighbourhood
• Border Action Team
• COVID-19
• Hizbul Mujahideen
• Jammu and Kashmir
• Kashmir
• pakistan

The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.