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Is India’s participation in the Kazan Summit and its position on the BRICS 2024 agenda of expansion and de-dollarisation an important trigger point?
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As the diplomatic dispute between India and Canada has escalated and both sides have expelled each other's diplomats, questions are being raised as to why Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau raked up the ‘Khalistan issue’ at this point in time. Is it for vote bank politics, or is Ottawa targeting New Delhi at the behest of a third country? The Five Eyes’ vocal support for Canada, followed by the United States (US) Department of Justice “formally naming and charging” a former RAW official in the Pannun case has further complicated the matter.
Beijing is closely observing the heated exchange between India and the Five Eyes Bloc. Chinese debates on the issue suggest some considerations that might be influencing the recent developments. Some Chinese observers view the development from the prism of the upcoming BRICS summit, scheduled for 22-24 October 2024 in Kazan, Russia. This is the first BRICS summit after its major expansion last January. Since then, the grouping’s popularity has been on the rise, with more than 30 countries, including NATO member Türkiye expressing interest in joining the bloc.
Beijing is closely observing the heated exchange between India and the Five Eyes Bloc.
In the Chinese assessment, the upcoming BRICS summit is seen as a potential game changer in international politics, as it will lay the ground for a new round of expansion and take important decisions on a new trade settlement system bypassing SWIFT. Both these developments, if they materialise, can deliver a heavy blow to the US’ global dominance.
As per various estimates, the strength of the BRICS organisation has already surpassed that of the G7 in terms of purchasing power parity. Further expansion will imply the interest of the global majority converging, not with the West under the US leadership, but with its rival bloc. Furthermore, if NATO member Türkiye sets a precedent by joining the grouping during the upcoming summit, Chinese observers expect more NATO and EU member states to jump ship, further adding to the West’s embarrassment. Not to mention, any progress on the BRICS settlement system or reserve currency, may have a significant impact on the US and the global economy.
No wonder, the US and the entire West remain particularly vigilant about the upcoming BRICS summit. As is known, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump had already threatened to slap a 100-percent tariff on countries that shun the US dollar. As per Chinese reports, the US has been trying by all means, overt and covert, to sabotage the Kazan forum. Russia has reportedly invited 38 countries to attend the BRICS 2024 Summit, however, the invited nations, are increasingly facing pressure from the West. As a result, some of these nations, who had publicly shown interest in joining BRICS and clearly expressed their desire to participate in the BRICS summit as early as six months ago, are now either backing off from participating or sending lower-level representations. For example, the Saudi Crown Prince’s decision to skip his BRICS debut sparked heated debates in China over the US’ lingering influence in the Middle East and beyond.
As per various estimates, the strength of the BRICS organisation has already surpassed that of the G7 in terms of purchasing power parity.
Now, as one of the founding members of BRICS, India is expected to play a crucial role in the upcoming summit. India’s position on issues like BRICS expansion and de-dollarisation can have a direct bearing on the decisions of other members, who may be keen to explore new economic opportunities under the forum but are also concerned about offending the US and other Western countries. As per some Chinese accounts, Canada's offensive vis-à-vis India, at this time, possibly implies the West's intention to build up additional pressure on India to toe its line before the upcoming BRICS summit.
It is worth recalling that EAM Jaishankar recently spoke about the issue of de-dollarisation at a US think tank, where he emphasised that India has “no malicious intent towards the dollar”. That “targeting the US dollar is not India’s economic policy” …however it does have concerns…US policies often complicate its (India’s) trade with certain countries and (therefore) it is seeking “workarounds” to deal with trade partners who lack dollars for transactions. He, further, asserted that a multipolar world will eventually be reflected in currencies and economic dealings.
Chinese observers, who often consider India to be a stumbling block to its Petro-Yuan dream, criticised Jaishankar’s statement for being “opportunistic”. They argued that, on one hand, India is seeking to take the opportunity to create new bargaining chips for negotiations with the US, that is if the US hopes India to “disrupt” the “de-dollarisation” measures within the BRICS, the United States must offer enough benefits in exchange; On the other hand, while blaming China or other BRICS members, it is making the most of BRICS de-dollarisation agenda and pressurising member countries, particularly China, to accommodate India's conditions like inclusion of Indian rupee, ensuring non-binding nature of any new "BRICS Settlement System" among others. The Chinese side suspects that the US might also be dissatisfied with India's position, and is thus using Canada to build pressure on India before the BRICS summit.
Chinese observers, who often consider India to be a stumbling block to its Petro-Yuan dream, criticised Jaishankar’s statement for being “opportunistic”.
There’s much debate within India’s strategic community about what’s driving the fresh round of tension between India and Canada, in particular, and the Five Eyes Bloc, in general. Is India’s participation in the Kazan Summit and its position on the BRICS 2024 agenda of expansion and de-dollarisation an important trigger point? This is undoubtedly a question that requires further investigation.
Antara Ghosal Singh is a Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Antara Ghosal Singh is a Fellow at the Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. Her area of research includes China-India relations, China-India-US ...
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