At a time when China urgently needs a stable economic environment, Trump's return to power would be akin to a bull in a china shop
Image Source: Getty
In her 41-minute acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention on 22 August 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris mentioned China only once, in a passing comment, and entirely avoided topics like Taiwan, Tibet, the South China Sea, and the Uyghurs. This omission was deliberate. Harris's future political agenda focuses primarily on the economy, a theme she emphasised three times during her speech. Her predominant focus on domestic issues aligns with China’s preference for the next United States (US) President.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and his associates in Beijing prefer Harris over the temperamental and unpredictable Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump. Harris's inward focus and tendency to prioritise social values may present China with a rare post-COVID-19 opportunity to recalibrate its US policies and revive cooperative engagement with the US, which is crucial for China's continued economic growth. This article examines Chinese concerns regarding Trump and explores their reasons for favouring Harris in the current political landscape.
Harris's inward focus and tendency to prioritise social values may present China with a rare post-COVID-19 opportunity to recalibrate its US policies and revive cooperative engagement with the US, which is crucial for China's continued economic growth.
The Trump administration from 2017 to 2021 likely marked one of the most challenging periods in US-China relations since their rapprochement in 1971. Characterised by uncertainty, unpredictability, and hostility towards China, Trump rapidly strove to dismantle the foundations of the US-China economic relationship. Even before assuming office, he sparked tensions by directly interacting with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and rejecting adherence to the ‘One China Policy’. His subsequent decisions led bilateral relations into uncharted territory.
Trump halted negotiations for a Bilateral Investment Treaty, forcefully condemned Chinese actions in the South China Sea and against Japan, imposed substantial tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium imports, and resolutely pursued policies against China’s large trade imbalance with the US. He also targeted China’s non-tariff barriers against American exports, and the pressure on US companies to transfer technologies to their Chinese partners in joint ventures.
Moreover, Trump renamed the US Pacific Command to the Indo-Pacific Command, heightening China’s apprehension and refocusing American strategic priorities on China. Additionally, he condemned China's economic espionage, repeatedly emphasised its central role in the spread of COVID-19, at times referring to it as the ‘China Virus’ and frequently sanctioned Chinese companies, particularly by restricting Huawei’s access to semiconductor chips and promoting technological decoupling. The Trump administration and its officials viewed China as an adversary, dismissing any illusions of cooperative engagement.
Trump renamed the US Pacific Command to the Indo-Pacific Command, heightening China’s apprehension and refocusing American strategic priorities on China.
This approach nearly derailed China's economic and diplomatic trajectory. Therefore, even after Trump left office, China imposed sanctions on former senior officials, including Mike Pompeo, Alex Azar, Kelly Craft, and 25 others, for their roles in severely damaging China-US relations. China continues to feel the impact of the Trump administration's actions.
Since 2021, the Biden administration has maintained a firm stance on China, continuing several of Trump’s policy measures. It has kept pressure on Chinese officials regarding trade imbalances, economic espionage, technological decoupling, and regional security. Additionally, the Biden administration has elevated the importance of issues like Tibet, Taiwan, and other contentious matters, while providing stronger support and attention to US allies in their stance against China. However, the current US economic policy is less hostile, offering a significant respite for President Xi. This has allowed him to focus more on consolidating his domestic political power and shifting the blame for economic challenges, such as rising unemployment and slowing manufacturing, onto his junior politicians and finance officials. This reprieve is further reinforced by Biden’s recent efforts to engage with China through high-level visits and backchannel diplomacy. Herein lies China's opportunity and inclination.
Kamala Harris’s emphasis on issues such as the cost of living, housing, reproductive rights, border control, and a focus on the economy is more favourable for China. China anticipates that officials currently causing friction, like Anthony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, might not continue in a Harris administration, hoping instead for milder representatives who prioritise US-China economic relations. Harris’s running mate’s positive history with China further enhances Xi’s hope for renewed cooperative engagement.
China cannot predict the trajectory of US policies under Trump and is concerned that his future team could include notably anti-China policymakers like Matt Galagher and Robert Lighthizer.
In contrast, Trump, in any capacity, poses a significant threat to China’s regional and international political and economic ambitions. China cannot predict the trajectory of US policies under Trump and is concerned that his future team could include notably anti-China policymakers like Matt Galagher and Robert Lighthizer. These officials would increase China’s difficulty at a time of economic crisis. Already, Trump has threatened to impose a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese goods if he comes to power.
In the upcoming US elections, a Democratic victory would keep the administration's focus on the crises in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip. Democratic politicians are deeply involved in the Russia-Ukraine war and are grappling with the unpredictable and opportunistic Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu’s strategy of perpetuating conflict with Hamas to maintain his hold on power puts Democrats in a difficult position, particularly with their domestic left-liberal base, which remains hostile to any perceived American support for Israel. Even during Harris’s acceptance speech, a significant pro-Palestinian group protested against her balanced approach.
With the majority of Democrats preoccupied with these two critical crises, they would have little capacity to concentrate on China and East Asia. The current US-China quiet diplomacy is influenced by these complexities, as the US shows little willingness to confront a crisis in East Asia. However, Trump has already announced his intention to withdraw from the Russia-Ukraine war and avoid entanglement in the Israel-Palestine conflict, which makes China apprehensive.
The current US-China quiet diplomacy is influenced by these complexities, as the US shows little willingness to confront a crisis in East Asia.
The second issue concerns China's approach to international organisations and multilateral institutions. Over the past few decades, China has invested significant effort in engaging with various UN agencies, seeking to gain influence and leadership positions. China views these agencies as vital to becoming an international superpower. As a result, it has increased its influence wherever possible and, where it has faced resistance, established alternative multilateral organisations, such as new financial institutions to compete with the Bretton Woods system.
A potential Trump presidency threatens to undermine much of China's progress in these multilateral efforts. Trump's disdain for the UN-led political structure, the World Trade Organization (WTO), and its various agreements and financial frameworks jeopardises China's efforts over the past decades. At a time when China urgently needs a stable economic environment, Trump's return to power would be akin to a bull in a china shop.
For China's national rejuvenation and financial dominance, Beijing prefers a controlled and gradual decline of the US. A disorderly decline, potentially caused by Trump's isolationist policies, would harm the Chinese economy. Additionally, US isolation could destabilise the international security environment, which China has leveraged for trade and economic gains. A chaotic world poses risks to China's business interests, and its struggling economy cannot afford such instability.
An isolationist US military stance could drive East Asian countries, such as Japan and South Korea, to develop nuclear capabilities, which would pose long-term security threats to China.
Additionally, there are potential risks for China regarding regional security. Trump is harsh on adversaries but brutal with allies, particularly those who underspend on defence and intend to free ride on US military presence. An isolationist US military stance could drive East Asian countries, such as Japan and South Korea, to develop nuclear capabilities, which would pose long-term security threats to China. A potential coalition among these nations to deter China would be far more challenging to manage.
Therefore, Harris’s victory is necessary for China to recalibrate its policies with the US administration and re-embark on economic growth and dominance. As expected, China prefers the Democrats in the coming elections and remains apprehensive of Trump’s return.
Atul Kumar is a Fellow in the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Atul Kumar is a Fellow in Strategic Studies Programme at ORF. His research focuses on national security issues in Asia, China's expeditionary military capabilities, military ...
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