Returning to power after two decades, the BNP has pledged democracy restoration, economic revival, foreign policy recalibration, and social harmony, but converting promises and legacy into credible governance remains the central test
After a landslide victory in Bangladesh’s 13th general election earlier this month, Tarique Rahman, Chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), is set to form the government. Securing 209 of the 297 seats in the Jatiya Sansad (Bangladesh Parliament), the BNP returns to power after two decades. In his maiden address to the nation on 18 February, Rahman pledged to restore democracy, uphold the rule of law, and ensure equal rights for all citizens. He emphasised the need to stabilise the country’s security situation, fragile economy, and weakened governance structures. His remarks reflect the BNP’s stated governance principle, ‘Bangladesh Before All’, articulated in its 2026 election manifesto.
As the new administration takes over from Muhammad Yunus, Chief Adviser of the interim government, four areas of governance—political, economic, diplomatic, and social—that have been compromised in recent years demand urgent attention. These are the following:
The delay in implementing the Charter deepens doubts about the restoration of democracy in Bangladesh, particularly amid concerns over the Awami League’s exclusion from the election. As the BNP consolidates its position, containing polarising narratives will be essential.
Restoration of Democracy: The later years of the Awami League government were widely criticised for democratic backsliding—a context the BNP leveraged to foreground its earlier role in restoring multi-party democracy. This refers to the brief partnership in the 1980s, when the ‘Battling Begums’, Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia, joined forces to topple the military dictatorship of Hussain Muhammad Ershad, culminating in the establishment of a neutral caretaker government system in 1990. Building on this narrative, the BNP manifesto states that, if elected, the party would “establish a state and a government that are responsible, accountable, just and directly answerable to the citizens.” It proposes to do so by implementing the July Charter, restructuring the electoral system, introducing an upper chamber in parliament, and reviewing controversial constitutional amendments, among other measures.
However, following the oath-taking ceremony, the BNP declined to take a second pledge as members of the ‘Constitution Reform Council’ to implement the “July Charter”, which seeks to revise the country’s governance framework and prevent the return of authoritarian rule. The party reasoned that it had not been elected to serve on this body and that the council’s provision had yet to be incorporated into the Constitution. The decision met with resistance from the opposition Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and its ally, the National Citizen Party (NCP), which initially boycotted the ceremony before later reconciling. Nonetheless, both maintain that a parliament without constitutional reform is “meaningless”. The delay in implementing the Charter deepens doubts about the restoration of democracy in Bangladesh, particularly amid concerns over the Awami League’s exclusion from the election. As the BNP consolidates its position, containing polarising narratives will be essential.
Rebuilding the Economy: Under the former Hasina government, Bangladesh’s economy improved significantly, surpassing India’s per capita GDP in 2020. The World Bank described its journey from one of the poorest countries in 1971 to being counted among the world’s fastest-growing economies as “remarkable progress”. Accordingly, Bangladesh was scheduled to cease to be classified as a Least Developed Country by 2026. Yet, the 2024 political upheaval exposed underlying fault lines, resulting in lower GDP growth, a sharp devaluation of the Taka against the dollar, and declining loan inflows, thereby increasing the debt burden. The Ready-Made Garment (RMG) industry, long a frontrunner of the economy, faced several months of flux, low output and sales, leading to substantial losses. The revocation of Bangladesh’s access to transhipment facilities at Indian land ports and airports further affected the industry, disrupting established trade routes, raising logistics costs and causing shipping delays.
With a fresh leadership in place, the party must therefore prioritise long-standing cooperation over past grievances.
Under these circumstances, the BNP’s manifesto outlines its ambition to elevate Bangladesh to upper-middle-income status with a one-trillion-dollar annual GDP by 2034. To do so, it promises to harmonise fiscal and monetary policies, create a business-friendly environment, provide comprehensive policy benefits, increase support for small and medium industries and incentivise export-oriented businesses. Nonetheless, for comprehensive economic development, domestic initiatives must be complemented by multiple sources of foreign direct investment and stable cross-border connectivity that support overseas trade. Therefore, diplomatic endeavours are necessary.
Realigning Foreign Policy: Bangladesh relies significantly on foreign trade, investment and assistance for its economic prosperity and development. Accordingly, the former Hasina government espoused a ‘diplomacy of balance’ in its engagements with major powers, ranging from China to the United States, Japan, and India. Towards the end of her rule, however, this balance faltered. Domestically, she was criticised for overtly favouring India, while relations with the US deteriorated owing to increasing Chinese involvement in Bangladesh. After her ouster, Yunus pursued a foreign policy that exhibited an overt preference for China, often overlooking the strategic sensitivities of Dhaka’s neighbouring countries. This, among other differences, strained ties with India considerably, halting transport channels and ongoing connectivity projects and affecting economic cooperation, trade, and passenger mobility. The interim government’s foreign policy posture raised questions about whether it aligned with long-term national interests or was aimed at securing popular legitimacy through an anti-Awami, and by extension, anti-India, narrative.
As the BNP takes over, its manifesto emphasises an open foreign policy, intent on nurturing ties with all states based on equality, fairness, pragmatism, recognition of mutual interests, and adherence to international rules and regulations. It highlights economic diplomacy, the need to secure preferential trade agreements, develop strategic partnerships to “maintain the reality of the Bay of Bengal”, and build ties with neighbouring countries for collective progress. However, the BNP’s history is marked by tenuous ties with India, which is incongruous for countries sharing the world’s fifth-longest border, 54 transboundary rivers, and several mutual organic dependencies. With a fresh leadership in place, the party must therefore prioritise long-standing cooperation over past grievances. To repair ties with India, it is important to address recent communal tensions and concerns about the safety of minority communities.
Reviving Social Harmony: During the tenure of the interim government, there have been frequent reports of communal violence and targeted attacks against minority communities in Bangladesh, drawing international attention. The interim leadership has maintained that these incidents were not communal in nature but rather outbursts directed at supporters of the former regime, framing them as law-and-order challenges in a country undergoing political transition. However, the repeated instances of communal disharmony and instability have become a cause of concern for the Indian government and populace, hindering bilateral ties.
For Tarique Rahman, this history matters, providing him with a distinct legitimacy that, for the time being, balances his relative inexperience in active politics.
While several arrests have already been made in connection with recent incidents, the anxiety can only be assuaged with time and constructive efforts towards stability made by the BNP government. While its manifesto claims that in independent Bangladesh, there is no room for a distinction between majorities and minorities, strict legal action must be taken against those inciting communal hatred. This will be essential not only for domestic peace but also facilitate better cross-border relations.
Realising these objectives will require considerable statesmanship and political experience. Tarique Rahman, having recently returned from a seventeen-year self-imposed exile in London, remains largely untested in the former and limited in the latter, apart from his tenure as a member of the Opposition during the first Sheikh Hasina government of 1996–2001, and the leadership roles he has held within the BNP. Nonetheless, as the son of the recently deceased former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and former President Ziaur Rahman, he inherits a significant political legacy rooted in the country’s post-1971 state-building experience.
While the Awami League derives its legitimacy and popularity largely from its founder, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s leadership in the freedom movement, there were other notable actors. For many in Bangladesh, Ziaur Rahman is regarded as a key steward of the ‘Muktijuddho’. Mujibur Rahman was arrested on the night of Operation Searchlight on 25 March 1971, leaving behind a radio message that was later broadcast as a call for resistance. The Bangabandhu remained imprisoned for nearly ten months and returned to the country only after independence. Naturally, the BNP claims a legitimate contribution to the Liberation War, which underlines its credibility in Bangladesh.
For Tarique Rahman, this history matters, providing him with a distinct legitimacy that, for the time being, balances his relative inexperience in active politics. This was reflected in the February polls, where media interviews with several voters showed a preference for the BNP over the JeI, based on the former’s contribution to the Liberation War, as well as its greater experience in politics and governance and comparatively moderate positioning. Over time, whether Tarique Rahman can translate inherited legitimacy into credible governance will determine not only the durability of the BNP’s mandate but also Bangladesh’s democratic stability, economic recovery, and regional standing.
Sohini Bose is an Associate Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Sohini Bose is an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Kolkata with the Strategic Studies Programme. Her area of research is India’s eastern maritime ...
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