The BNP’s win restores democratic competition, but with the Awami League excluded, Bangladesh’s democratic future depends on reforms, opposition engagement, and navigation of regional pressures
Heralding a new era in Bangladesh, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Tarique Rahman has won the thirteenth general election. It left behind the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) led 11-party alliance by a substantial margin. The much-anticipated poll held on 12 February 2026 was the culmination of a tumultuous journey to restore democracy, shepherded by the interim government’s Chief Advisor, Muhammad Yunus. Spanning 299 constituencies and over 50 political parties, it witnessed jubilant voter participation reportedly exceeding 60 percent. This is a significant rise from the 42 percent recorded in the last election in January 2024, in which the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, had emerged victorious, securing a fifth tenure. Her ouster from power following mass protests in August 2024 broke the myth of a near-permanent Awami League administration in Bangladesh. Among the most common criticisms of her regime had been the erosion of democracy in the country, kindling the fervour for fair polls.
However, the uniqueness of the February elections, being described as a landmark event in the history of Bangladesh, extends beyond its symbolism of the return of democracy to Dhaka. For the first time, a referendum was held alongside the election on the July Charter — a set of constitutional reforms developed by the National Consensus Commission, proposing: the establishment of a neutral interim government for elections, restructuring parliament into a bicameral legislature, increasing women's representation, strengthening judicial independence, and introducing a two-term limit for the prime minister. Signed in October 2024 by the interim government and representatives from over 20 political parties, including the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami, it serves as a framework for the transition to a new democratic era in Bangladesh. Yet, the July Charter does not represent the views of the Awami League, which has been banned from participating in the elections.
These polls were also the first in three decades to have been conducted without the Awami League and the ‘Battling Begums’ — former Prime Ministers Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia of BNP, who had dominated the country’s political scene since 1996.
Indeed, these polls were also the first in three decades to have been conducted without the Awami League and the ‘Battling Begums’ — former Prime Ministers Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia of BNP, who had dominated the country’s political scene since 1996. While Hasina remains self-exiled in India, Khaleda passed away on 30 December 2025, shortly after her son and acting BNP chief Tarique Rahman’s return to the country. Leveraged considerably by the circumstantial empathy and the public’s desire for BNP’s revival, the election was essentially a direct contest between Tarique Rahman and Shafiqur Rahman, the JeI Chief.
While the opinion polls ran in Tarique’s favour — given that the BNP is the more conventional of the two major political choices with experience in governance — the Jamaat was not left far behind. Indeed, since its return to the political scene after the ban on the party was lifted before the January 2024 election, the JeI actively participated in anti-government demonstrations, gaining considerable popular sway as anti-Awami League narratives gained ground. Since then, it has won the student elections at four major public educational institutions across the country, including the Dhaka and Chattogram Universities. Its alliance with the National Citizens Party — formed by student leaders of the 2024 July revolution — was expected to lend the JeI a stronger appeal among the younger generation, constituting nearly 44 percent of the country’s electorate. In the past one-and-a-half years, the JeI has also gained external support from some of Bangladesh’s leading partner countries.
Sensing the need to engage beyond the interim government in Dhaka — a temporary arrangement — China, Bangladesh’s largest trading partner and a key source of development assistance, made significant efforts to cultivate the JeI. The Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh, Yao Wen, visited Shafiqur Rahman at the latter’s Dhaka office in September 2024 — the first such visit in ten years — and appreciated the party’s organised structure. Since then, there have been several exchange visits between the JeI and Beijing. The United States, another of Bangladesh’s crucial developmental partners, has also reached out to the party, offering guidance to navigate the country’s political turbulence. By contrast, New Delhi has not engaged with this historically pro-Pakistani Islamist party, known for its anti-India stance.
India’s Minister for External Affairs, Dr S. Jaishankar, met Tarique Rahman soon after his mother's demise. Jaishankar expressed condolences for Rahman’s loss and expressed confidence that Khaleda Zia’s vision and values would guide the development of the India-Bangladesh partnership.
On the other hand, India’s Minister for External Affairs, Dr S. Jaishankar, met Tarique Rahman soon after his mother's demise. Jaishankar expressed condolences for Rahman’s loss and expressed confidence that Khaleda Zia’s vision and values would guide the development of the India-Bangladesh partnership. This visit marked a significant shift as India has historically shared frosty ties with the BNP. However, with reports of growing attacks on Hindu minorities in Bangladesh over the past year, and the JeI’s orthodox ideologies, the BNP currently represents a more pragmatic and politically mature choice. Tarique Rahman has also highlighted the need for improving ties with New Delhi. China, too, shares a history of political amity with the BNP, as bilateral ties between Beijing and Dhaka had been initiated under the party’s rule.
As a country substantially dependent on foreign funding for its trade and development, external support for the elected government will add considerable heft to its political legitimacy. At the same time, strained bilateral ties will create complications.
As South Asia looks toward a new Bangladesh, the significance of the election, however, should not be overstated. While it is undoubtedly a notable achievement, the ballot has only restored electoral competition. Whether it was truly representative of the people’s will remains debatable, given the exclusion of the Awami League. In Gopalganj, Sheikh Hasina’s former constituency and considered an Awami stronghold, the majority of the electorate has abstained from casting a vote. The banned party expressed gratitude to citizens on X for rejecting what it called a “voter-less” election.
While it is undoubtedly a notable achievement, the ballot has only restored electoral competition.
Nonetheless, as Yunus hands over the reins of governance to his elected counterpart, Bangladesh stands at a decisive crossroads. The restoration of democratic culture will depend on how the new government engages with the opposition, implements the July Charter, and navigates competing regional pressures. The return of elections marks not the end, but the beginning of Bangladesh’s next democratic chapter.
Sohini Bose is an Associate Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Sohini Bose is an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Kolkata with the Strategic Studies Programme. Her area of research is India’s eastern maritime ...
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