Despite Biden’s approval to use ATACMS by Ukraine, the immediate military balance between Russia and Ukraine will remain unaffected
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The Biden administration has finally relented to Kyiv’s long-pending demand from its Western allies to use the long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). Washington’s permission to use the ATACMS by Kyiv comes against the backdrop of North Korea deploying 10,000 troops in support of Russia to fight Ukrainian forces. The latest ATACMS are long-range guided missiles with a range of 300 kilometres (km) that can strike deep inside Russian territory. These missiles were already delivered in April this year, but approval for their use was only given over the last few days. A medium-range variant of the ATACMS was delivered at the end of 2023. The Biden administration’s decision to lift restrictions on the supply of these missiles comes alongside several other restrictions on Kyiv’s use of weapons systems being lifted. These weapons systems or platforms include the F-16s, M1-Abrams, High Mobility Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and Patriot missiles. The employment of ATACMS was earlier confined to Ukrainian territory. The United States (US) under the Biden administration consistently opposed supplying weapons systems because it deemed their battlefield use too escalatory. Indeed, the US’s fear of escalation has been the prime reason for Ukrainians fighting this war with one hand tied behind their backs. The outcome has left the Ukrainians suffering setbacks, enabling Russian advances and incremental territorial gains inside Ukraine. It has also left the Ukrainian cities and infrastructure reeling from incessant Russian bombardment.
The United States (US) under the Biden administration consistently opposed supplying weapons systems because it deemed their battlefield use too escalatory.
The ATACMS, however, are very versatile and can be launched from an equally versatile platform, the HIMAR launch platform, which is also a distinct missile launch system that was already in use prior to the latest decision by the Biden administration. The HIMAR launch platform is manoeuvrable just like the ATACMS projectile is. The speed and manoeuvrability of the ATACMS as well as the manoeuvrability of the HIMAR platform from which they will be launched makes it very difficult for Russian air defence missiles to intercept and target them. The ATACMS will bring great benefits to the Ukrainians if used effectively, by helping Kyiv destroy Russian command and control centres, air defence systems, air bases, weapons depots or storage facilities, communication facilities and large military installations. The Black Sea area in southern Russia adjoining Ukraine would be subject to considerable bombardment by the ATACMS. Consequently, the ATACMS are intended ultimately to improve and strengthen the bargaining position of the Ukrainians when negotiations begin between Kyiv and Moscow. Despite the Biden administration giving a go-ahead for the use of ATACMS by Kyiv, their use is restricted to the Kursk region where there is a large combined and concentrated deployment of Russian and North Korean troops. Still, the Ukrainians will also benefit from cruise missile capabilities developed as part of an Anglo-French collaboration called the Storm Shadows (British) and SCALP (French). As opposed to the ATACMS, these cruise missiles have a shorter range of 155 miles and are launched from an airborne platform. Despite being developed by America’s North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies, their use was permitted only after Washington lifted its own restrictions on the use of the ATACMS. Washington’s veto as the largest funder has meant that even its trans-Atlantic allies are prohibited from supplying weapon systems and missiles to Kyiv that were not built by the US. Nevertheless, despite their delayed delivery and approval for use, these missile systems and their platforms can inflict great damage and strike Russian targets at extended ranges, forcing Moscow to relocate its assets such as planes, ammunition storage facilities, and command centres deep inside Russian territory. Compelling Moscow to come to the negotiation table for a peace settlement is a vital goal, which the incoming President, Donald Trump, has alluded to.
The Black Sea area in southern Russia adjoining Ukraine would be subject to considerable bombardment by the ATACMS.
Russia has predictably reacted with menacing threats that it will not tolerate Western long-range weapons being used by the Ukrainians. However, these threats from Moscow have not prevented the US-led NATO states from supplying and permitting Kyiv’s limited use to strike Russia over the course of nearly three years. In fact, Ukraine used ATACMS to strike the Bryansk region of Russia immediately after the go-ahead by the US, suggesting that training and deployment were already underway. Russia has downplayed its significance.
At the tactical level, the decision may not impact the immediate military balance in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and is unlikely to deter Russia from its coming offensive in the Kursk region to oust the Ukrainian forces. The decision may also be a little too late, given some concerns in the US that the ATACM stockpile may be low. The Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to use ATACMS coincided with Russia’s announcement of a new nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use and signalling that it will not retreat.
The Trump administration’s initial impulse will be driven by his penchant towards striking deals, attempting to bring both Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table.
Politically, the ATACM decision by the Biden administration rides on his administration’s pledge that it will use every dollar that it can to support Ukraine. However, whether the incoming Trump administration will proceed with this may be a pressing question. The Trump administration’s initial impulse will be driven by his penchant towards striking deals, attempting to bring both Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table. More attacks by Ukraine and Russia’s hardening posture may complicate Trump’s chances. The decision has already caused consternation among Republicans, who think that it could complicate Trump’s promise to end the war swiftly, since it might incite Russia, drawing more resources from the US. Meanwhile, as Trump has begun receiving intelligence briefings as the incoming president, it will be interesting to see how he adapts to the legacy of Biden’s decisions in the next two months.
Vivek Mishra is the Deputy Director of the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
Kartik Bommakanti is a Senior Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation.
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Kartik Bommakanti is a Senior Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme. Kartik specialises in space military issues and his research is primarily centred on the ...
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Vivek Mishra is Deputy Director – Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation. His work focuses on US foreign policy, domestic politics in the US, ...
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