-
CENTRES
Progammes & Centres
Location
ASEAN recalibrates its strategy through dual summits with China and the GCC, signalling a pivot toward multipolar, sustainable partnerships.
Image Source: Getty
The 46th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit and the inaugural ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-China Trilateral Summit—held in Kuala Lumpur in May 2025—are pivotal developments in recalibrating ASEAN.. Amid a turbulent global economic landscape marked by rising protectionism, especially from the United States (US), ASEAN seeks diversified partnerships, reinforces internal cohesion, and promotes an inclusive and sustainable development model. These summits showcased ASEAN’s attempt to balance strategic competition and deepen regional integration as it approaches the decadal anniversary of its Community Vision 2025.
The 46th ASEAN Summit, chaired by Malaysia under the theme "Inclusivity and Sustainability," reaffirmed the region's core objectives of peace, prosperity, and sustainability amid increasing geopolitical complexity. The Chairman’s Statement emphasised equitable development and sought to ensure that ASEAN’s economic growth must not come at the expense of social cohesion or environmental integrity.
As the ASEAN Community has completed a decade since its formal inception in 2015, member states have reflected on achievements and ongoing challenges. The Kuala Lumpur Declaration on the 10th Anniversary of the ASEAN Community encapsulated this duality: celebrating integration while laying the groundwork for the next phase of ASEAN’s evolution toward its Vision 2045.
Among the Summit’s outcomes was the creation of the ASEAN Geoeconomics Task Force—an advisory body for strategic policy guidance amid increasing global fragmentation.
The High-Level Task Force on the ASEAN Community’s Post-2025 Vision (HLTF-ACV) for developing ASEAN 2045 ‘Our Shared Future’ has completed its work. This Vision will be implemented cohesively with ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC), Economic Community (AEC), and ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC) Strategic Plans 2026–2030.
Among the Summit’s outcomes was the creation of the ASEAN Geoeconomics Task Force—an advisory body for strategic policy guidance amid increasing global fragmentation. This reflects ASEAN’s proactive shift toward analytical foresight, ensuring policy coordination across sectors in response to escalating geopolitical and geoeconomic pressures.
On the energy integration front, the Summit advanced its plans for the enhanced ASEAN Power Grid (APG), endorsing a subsea power cable development framework. These efforts signal ASEAN's commitment to cross-border connectivity and decarbonisation—a critical component in its long-term sustainability agenda.
Furthermore, the Summit reaffirmed its support for Myanmar’s political and humanitarian crisis, underscoring continued ASEAN engagement in repatriation processes and humanitarian development based on the Preliminary Needs Assessment. While concrete progress remains limited, ASEAN’s institutional support is a step towards regional responsibility and humanitarian diplomacy. Thus, Myanmar remains an intractable issue for ASEAN.
Rising protectionist tendencies from the US—especially unilateral tariff announcements by the Trump administration—cast a looming shadow over the summit. Several ASEAN states—particularly Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam—faced import duties ranging from 46 percent to 49 percent, triggering significant concern.
Rising protectionist tendencies from the US—especially unilateral tariff announcements by the Trump administration—cast a looming shadow over the summit.
The Summit issued a statement expressing ‘deep concern’ over the potential impact on regional economies. ASEAN rejected retaliatory measures, opting for continued dialogue. This restraint reflects ASEAN’s engagement strategy over confrontation, and its preference for rules-based multilateralism over bilateral economic coercion. It also sought ‘the urgency of diversifying trade beyond traditional markets, deepening ASEAN-US economic engagement in high-value sectors through ASEAN-US Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (ASEAN-US TIFA)’
The landmark ASEAN-GCC-China Trilateral Summit—the first of its kind—demonstrated ASEAN's pivot toward deeper cooperation with rising economic power centres in the Gulf and East Asia. With fiscal uncertainty mounting due to US trade policies, the trilateral gathering represented a new axis of strategic commerce focused on resilience, connectivity, and sustainable growth.
Southeast Asian economies have grown increasingly export-dependent, particularly in sectors vulnerable to tariff fluctuations. Their need for diversification has become acute.
In this context, the trilateral summit of 18 countries represents a hedging mechanism: ASEAN’s efforts to solidify ties with China, its largest trading partner, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a bloc flush with sovereign wealth. ASEAN-GCC-China trade breached US$ 900 billion in 2024, nearly doubling its trade volume with the US. This trend underscores a larger strategic realignment in global supply chains and trade relations. The GCC is ASEAN’s seventh-largest trade partner, with trade of US$130.7 billion in 2023; the six Gulf states accounted for around 3.5 percent of ASEAN’s trade in 2023, compared to 20 percent for China.
With fiscal uncertainty mounting due to US trade policies, the trilateral gathering represented a new axis of strategic commerce focused on resilience, connectivity, and sustainable growth.
The first ASEAN GCC Summit was held in October 2023, and the second convened just before the trilateral with China. The ASEAN-GCC relationship has progressed rapidly over the last two years. A Joint Declaration on Economic Cooperation Between the Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), along with the Joint Statement of The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC), and The People’s Republic of China (ASEAN-GCC-China Summit), were formally adopted.
The ASEAN-GCC-China Joint Statement contains nine introductory paragraphs following the preamble, focusing on recent developments in the Middle East. It supports Gaza and underscores adherence to international law and conventions, particularly referencing the July 2024 advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which affirms the two-state solution. The statement also welcomes the initiatives of Saudi Arabia, Norway, and the European Union (EU), acknowledges Qatar's mediation efforts, and recognises China's contributions to Palestinian internal reconciliation. Notably, the document does not mention the South China Sea (SCS) or the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
The remainder of the statement emphasises economic integration, regional connectivity, energy security and sustainability, digital transformation and innovation, food and agricultural cooperation, and enhanced people-to-people exchanges. It defends the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the multilateral trading system, and voices support for China’s Global Development Initiative for advancing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Supply chain resilience has been given a particular focus, alongside initiatives for regional financial cooperation, especially in capital markets, local currency use, and cross-border payment systems. The statement also calls for efforts to stabilise global energy markets, with several paragraphs devoted to clean and renewable energy sources. It highlights the need to build infrastructure for regional energy exchange, promote the digital economy, and develop partnerships in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and blockchain.
Some ASEAN leaders were present. While China was represented by Premier Li Qiang, the GCC states were represented by Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Al-Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah of Kuwait.
A key outcome of the summit was the formation of a regional business council to promote trade flows and regional value chains. This aligns with ASEAN’s goal of embedding itself into diversified supply networks rather than relying on singular trade dependencies.
The joint statement also promoted ‘high-quality cooperation’ under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), highlighted plans to improve logistics corridors, and develop digital platforms for seamless connectivity. This reflects China’s strategic interest in cementing economic influence through infrastructure and ASEAN’s ambition to become a digital trade hub.
A key outcome of the summit was the formation of a regional business council to promote trade flows and regional value chains.
The summit also explored nuclear safety cooperation—including training, technology sharing, and regulatory development—marking a bold expansion of ASEAN’s energy diplomacy with China and the Gulf, and foreshadowing new dimensions in sustainable and secure energy partnerships.
Premier Li Qiang and some participating leaders suggested including the GCC in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)—a mega-trade pact covering ASEAN, China, and other regional economies. ASEAN agreed to initiate feasibility studies, indicating a political will to deepen economic integration with Gulf nations. A separate trade agreement between ASEAN and the Gulf states is being deliberated. The ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) 3.0 Upgrade negotiations have been completed. The ACFTA Upgrade Protocol will be signed at the 28th ASEAN-China Summit later this year.
This move, if actualised, could expand RCEP’s geographical and economic scope, linking the energy-rich West Asia with manufacturing-driven Southeast Asia and tech-intensive Northeast Asia.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Premier Li Qiang emphasised historical ties—from the Silk Road to modern trade corridors—as a foundation for future cooperation. This diplomatic framing allowed the summit to be cast as a tactical response to US tariffs and a longstanding civilisational partnership, with shared values and mutual interests in sustainable development, cultural exchange, and trade.
This narrative of ‘deep and enduring ties’ was particularly resonant given the cultural linkages between GCC nations and Muslim-majority ASEAN states such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei, adding a soft power layer to economic diplomacy.
The summits reveal ASEAN's attempt to enhance sophistication in navigating great power competition. While the US remains a vital investment, technology, and security cooperation source, China and the GCC offer scale, liquidity, and policy predictability. ASEAN's approach thus reflects strategic autonomy—engaging all partners while avoiding entanglement in binary rivalries.
While the US remains a vital investment, technology, and security cooperation source, China and the GCC offer scale, liquidity, and policy predictability.
The trilateral summit underscores a broader global realignment, with China expanding its economic reach and the GCC seeking lasting footholds in Asia. ASEAN, in turn, is not just reacting to shifts but actively shaping them—investing in institutional mechanisms, diversifying its partnerships, and fortifying its regional frameworks.
The 46th ASEAN Summit and the ASEAN-GCC-China Trilateral Summit reflect a maturing ASEAN, which is no longer content to remain a bystander in global affairs. Confronted with rising protectionism, global volatility, and shifting power centres, ASEAN is increasingly embracing inclusive, sustainable, and multipolar engagement. By solidifying partnerships with China and the GCC while maintaining constructive ties with the US, ASEAN is crafting a new economic diplomacy model grounded in balance, resilience, and forward-looking cooperation. As the region looks toward 2045, these summits may be remembered as critical inflexion points in ASEAN’s strategic journey.
Gurjit Singh has served as India's ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Gurjit Singh has served as Indias ambassador to Germany Indonesia Ethiopia ASEAN and the African Union. He is the Chair of CII Task Force on ...
Read More +.jpg)
PREV