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AI Projects funded by State Governments are changing Real Time Warfare across the world, not through autonomous agents but by optimising the analysis and interpretation of data
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly being integrated across a wide spectrum of disciplines and practical domains, and military operations are no exception. States around the world have begun incorporating AI into defence planning and strategic execution, with the United States (US), Israel, and China leading these advancements. Yet, how AI influences real-time battlefields, and the extent of its operational impact, are frequently misunderstood or overstated. Rather than functioning primarily as a conduit for autonomous lethality through platforms such as drones, the predominant role of AI in contemporary warfare lies in processing vast quantities of data to enhance situational awareness and provide commanders with a more comprehensive understanding of the battlespace.
Established in April 2017 by the US Department of Defense (DoD), the Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team, commonly known as Project Maven, was created to enhance the integration of AI and machine learning (ML) across defence operations. Its principal objective was to preserve the strategic and technological superiority of the US over its adversaries and competitors. Initially led by Google, the project sought to develop systems capable of processing the vast volumes of data generated by US drones operating in the Middle East. By training AI models on this data, Project Maven aimed to enable automated identification of military targets from drone surveillance footage, subsequently relaying this information to commanding officers for human verification and operational response.
The predominant role of AI in contemporary warfare lies in processing vast quantities of data to enhance situational awareness and provide commanders with a more comprehensive understanding of the battlespace.
In 2018, Google chose not to renew its collaboration with the DoD on Project Maven, following widespread internal dissent among its employees over the company’s involvement in military applications of AI. This withdrawal created a temporary gap in the project’s development trajectory, prompting other civilian defence technology firms to assume a greater role. Among these, Palantir Technologies emerged as a principal contractor, leveraging its expertise in data integration and analysis to advance Maven’s operational capabilities and ensure continuity in the project’s support for US defence objectives.
Project Maven demonstrated rapid operational success, providing significant support to US military intelligence efforts against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. By February 2024, it had reportedly facilitated over 85 precision airstrikes in these regions. According to Schuyler Moore, Chief Technology Officer of the US Central Command, the system’s function remained limited to target identification and assessment rather than autonomous engagement, with all strike decisions subject to human confirmation before execution. The project is currently under the leadership of the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, where it is used to map the globe for military and strategic use.
The ultimate objective of Project Maven has been confirmed as establishing a continuous pipeline for analysing intelligence derived from multiple sources. This process is envisaged to operate through a federated architecture composed of continuously learning analytical engines. The long-term ambition of this framework is to develop a comprehensive multi-domain targeting system, capable of integrating and coordinating intelligence across land, sea, air, cyber, and space domains, thereby enhancing the US’s ability to conduct synchronised, information-driven military operations.
Several experts have characterised the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the conflict that followed as a ‘testing ground’ or ‘live laboratory’ for the deployment of AI in modern warfare. The hostilities have catalysed substantial innovation in the utilisation of AI technologies for weapon systems, intelligence analysis, and cybersecurity, as both Russian and Ukrainian forces strive for technological superiority. Project Maven, developed under the US DoD, has had a critical influence in this context, providing essential support to Ukrainian defence efforts from the outset of the Russian incursion.
In particular, Project Maven’s contribution was evident through its integration with the US Army’s XVIII Airborne Corps, led by General Christopher Donohue, taking command of the Security Assistance Group-Ukraine (SAG-U). While SAG-U’s early remit was to provide essential command support, logistical planning, and the delivery of materiel to the Ukrainian frontlines, its operational focus swiftly evolved towards direct battlefield support, specifically in targeting tasks.
Beyond mere target recognition, these models functioned as Decision Support Systems on the battlefield, effectively providing Ukrainian commanders with a dynamic ‘digital model of the battlefield’.
The AI models developed under Project Maven, which identified and communicated potential targets, played a pivotal role in numerous counterattacks conducted by Ukrainian forces. Beyond mere target recognition, these models functioned as Decision Support Systems on the battlefield, effectively providing Ukrainian commanders with a dynamic ‘digital model of the battlefield’. This virtual representation enabled the detection and tracking of enemy forces and their positions by synthesising data gathered from a relatively sparse network of sensors, thereby enhancing situational awareness and operational decision-making despite sensor deployment limitations. The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency later disclosed in public recordings how Project Maven was deployed in Ukraine to decrease 'Find, Fix, Finish' cycles down to less than ten minutes.
Project Maven is widely believed to have contributed significantly to the precision targeting of General Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the Russian Defence Staff and a key military aide to President Putin, who was the most senior Russian general on 1 May 2022. During Gerasimov’s visit to a Russian army headquarters, the site was struck by a Ukrainian artillery attack, reportedly employing a US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). Similar targeting support from Project Maven is likely to have facilitated Ukrainian strikes on Russian barracks in Mariivka, where information is hypothesised to have been collected from images posted by Russian soldiers on social media platforms. Furthermore, ongoing Ukrainian offensives against Russian oil refineries appear to have benefitted from the operational advantages conferred by Project Maven’s AI-assisted targeting capabilities. Drones used for such projects employ simple AI models that facilitate precision targeting and preventing jamming efforts.
Despite public and media speculation regarding AI’s potential to enable fully autonomous lethal systems, the operational reality underscores its value as a force multiplier in decision-making processes on the battlefield.
The actual role of AI in contemporary warfare, exemplified by projects such as Project Maven, primarily centres on the analysis and interpretation of vast and diverse streams of information rather than the autonomous execution of lethal actions. Despite public and media speculation regarding AI’s potential to enable fully autonomous lethal systems, the operational reality underscores its value as a force multiplier in decision-making processes on the battlefield.
One of the fundamental contributions of AI in military contexts is its capability to process, synthesise, and analyse the immense volumes of data generated by modern sensor networks, drone reconnaissance, cyber intelligence, and other sources. Rather than acting independently to initiate combat actions, AI models underpin decision support systems that enhance human commanders' situational awareness, threat identification, and target prioritisation. Project Maven exemplifies this approach by using AI and ML to help identify and relay potential targets from drone footage and other intelligence sources. The AI does not autonomously engage targets; instead, it presents verified information that human operators analyse to make informed decisions. This human-in-the-loop model is critical for maintaining command accountability and ethical oversight within military operations.
While autonomous weapon systems raise critical ethical and legal questions, current AI applications within Project Maven and comparable defence initiatives remain aligned with international norms by ensuring human oversight in the targeting cycle. This mitigates the risks of unintended escalation or collateral damage that might accompany fully autonomous lethal actions, thereby reflecting a prudent, measured adoption of AI technologies within military operations.
AI’s transformative impact in modern warfare resides not in replacing human agency but in augmenting it by enhancing the speed, accuracy, and comprehension of battlefield information to empower decision-makers.
In essence, AI’s transformative impact in modern warfare resides not in replacing human agency but in augmenting it by enhancing the speed, accuracy, and comprehension of battlefield information to empower decision-makers. In the words of Jack Shanahan, the inaugural director of Project Maven, “It’s this weird mix of legacy or traditional weapon systems with commercial and leading-edge technologies. The side that gains the advantage is the side that figures out how to use that combination of technologies in new and different and creative ways.”
This underscores the evolving paradigm of warfare where information superiority, powered by advanced analytics and AI, constitutes a critical strategic advantage. Thus, AI’s role is fundamentally one of information analysis and decision support rather than autonomous lethality.
Pranoy Jainendran is a Research Assistant with ORF’s Centre for Security, Strategy & Technology.
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Pranoy Jainendran is a Research Assistant with ORF’s Centre for Security, Strategy & Technology. His work examines how technology shapes State institutions, national and international affairs, ...
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