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The fall of Kabul to the Taliban in August 2021 marked a dramatic turning point in Afghanistan's political landscape, triggering one of the largest refugee crises of the century. Millions of Afghans, fearing persecution and economic collapse, fled to neighboring countries such as Pakistan and Iran. Over time, the situation has worsened due to political, economic, and environmental factors—exacerbated by a dearth of significant international support. As of January 2025, approximately 22.9 million people in Afghanistan require humanitarian assistance, a significant rise from the 9.4 million in 2020. Yet, the ramifications of this crisis extend far beyond the refugees themselves, reshaping regional dynamics and challenging the international community’s ability—or willingness—to respond.
The recent surge has severely strained their fragile economies and social systems, which are already burdened by internal economic and political challenges.
Strain on neighbouring countries
The mass exodus of Afghans has placed unprecedented pressure on Pakistan and Iran, which now host over 5 million Afghan refugees. These nations have historically sheltered Afghan refugees due to decades of conflict. Still, the recent surge has severely strained their fragile economies and social systems, which are already burdened by internal economic and political challenges. Iran has announced plans to expel up to 2 million Afghans by March 2025, citing financial pressures and stricter migration policies. Meanwhile, Pakistan has already deported at least 800,000 Afghans since October 2023 as part of a crackdown on undocumented immigrants. Beyond these two countries, smaller groups of Afghan refugees have sought refuge in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and other nations. Additionally, Europe has seen a marked increase in asylum applications from Afghan nationals since the Taliban's return to power, indicating a shift in migration patterns as Afghans seek safety and stability outside their homeland.
Source: Author’s Compilation
In Pakistan, approximately 1.35 million Afghans are primarily concentrated in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (54 percent) and Balochistan (24 percent), where they face arrests, forced relocations, and widespread harassment. The Pakistani government has announced plans to deport an additional 40,000 Afghans from these cities by 31 March 2025, as the crisis is further exacerbating the nation’s economic challenges, including soaring inflation, a fragile fiscal position, and political instability. This escalating situation has also fuelled growing resentment both within Pakistan and among Afghan refugee communities, as the gap between escalating needs and limited resources continues to widen. Amidst a deteriorating relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan, Afghan refugees are becoming pawns, as evidenced by Pakistan's recent actions, including holding the Taliban responsible for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan's (TTP) actions and the mistreatment of Afghan refugees.
Economic sanctions, coupled with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, have severely constrained Iran’s ability to integrate refugees into its economy and provide essential services.
Iran faces a similar dilemma, with millions of Afghan refugees now residing in the country. Despite its long-standing history of hosting Afghan refugees, rising anti-Afghan sentiment has fueled harassment and instances of violence against migrants. Economic sanctions, coupled with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, have severely constrained Iran’s ability to integrate refugees into its economy and provide essential services. While the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has urged Iran to continue its tradition of hospitality, the situation remains dire as many Afghans are ‘treated like criminals’ with limited access to food and water in detention camps. Caught in a web of insecurity and dwindling rights, Afghan refugees are being forced back into Taliban-controlled Afghanistan under increasingly desperate conditions.
Impact of US policy changes
A crucial factor exacerbating Afghanistan’s ongoing humanitarian emergency has been the evolving stance of the United States’ policy. Before the Taliban's takeover, the Afghan government was heavily dependent on international aid, with approximately three-fourths of the Afghan government's expenditures covered by grants from the US. Between 2001 and 2021, the US provided Afghanistan US$109 billion in aid, funding key government operations, security forces, and development projects. However, the withdrawal of the US forces and the subsequent collapse of the Afghan government in August 2021 triggered immediate shifts in US foreign policy. In response to the Taliban’s return to power, the US froze billions in Afghan central bank assets and drastically reduced development aid. However, it has since allocated US$21 billion in aid to Afghanistan, with US$2.97 billion specifically designated for humanitarian and development relief.
Before the Taliban's takeover, the Afghan government was heavily dependent on international aid, with approximately three-fourths of the Afghan government's expenditures covered by grants from the US.
The return of President Donald Trump marked a significant escalation in problems for the Afghan refugees. On his inauguration day, Trump signed a series of executive orders with sweeping implications for immigration and refugee policies, including freezing US foreign aid and suspending the US Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP). His executive order, Reevaluating and Realigning United States Foreign Aid, halted the assistance to foreign entities, citing unsubstantiated claims that it destabilised global peace. These actions also effectively terminated the Afghan Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) program, severely impacting refugees and foreign aid efforts. The Afghan SIV programme was designed to provide a pathway to the US for Afghans who worked with the US military or government during the war. However, the programme has been plagued by bureaucratic delays and backlogs, leaving many eligible Afghans stranded and vulnerable. The overwhelming demand for visas has further strained an already sluggish system, compounding the difficulties for those seeking refuge.
In addition, Trump’s executive order, Realigning the United States Refugee Admissions Programme, suspended refugee admissions, claiming that the US lacked sufficient resources to support migrants. The USRAP, which serves as a primary pathway to resettle in the United States, was effectively frozen, limiting safe options for thousands of Afghan allies—including those who directly assisted US forces and the families of active-duty troops. This policy change has left many vulnerable Afghans with no viable options for resettlement, forcing them to remain in precarious situations in neighboring countries or within Afghanistan itself. Almost 20,000 Afghans are currently awaiting approval in Pakistan to resettle in the US through USRAP. Former Afghan Diplomat Omar Samad noted that US agencies might review exemptions for Afghan refugees, but the future remains uncertain. The suspension of the USRAP has also sent a negative signal to other countries, potentially discouraging them from offering resettlement opportunities to Afghan refugees.
The USRAP, which serves as a primary pathway to resettle in the United States, was effectively frozen, limiting safe options for thousands of Afghan allies—including those who directly assisted US forces and the families of active-duty troops.
The US Agency for International Development (USAID) has also historically been a major provider of humanitarian and development assistance to Afghanistan. However, significant cuts to USAID funding have curtailed essential healthcare, education, and economic development programmes. These cuts have had a direct impact on the Afghan population, reducing access to critical services and exacerbating the already dire humanitarian situation. The reduction in USAID funding has also weakened the capacity of local organisations to respond to the crisis, further undermining the resilience of Afghan communities.
Way forward
The Trump administration's policies—marked by significant cuts to USAID and restrictive immigration measures—helped set the stage for the current humanitarian emergency. These policies reduced the capacity of international organisations to provide essential services to Afghan refugees and limited the opportunities for resettlement in the US. Compounding the issue, donor fatigue has led to a stark shortfall in funding, with international aid failing to meet the US$2.42 billion needed annually to cover Afghanistan’s basic humanitarian needs. The 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) aimed to target 16.8 million people, but as of early February 2025, less than 12 percent of the required funding had been secured. As the US continues to prioritise its domestic interests and reduce its involvement in international humanitarian efforts, the burden of managing Afghan refugees would likely fall more heavily on host countries in South Asia.
Addressing this crisis requires a renewed and coordinated global response. Increased humanitarian aid, greater support for host nations, and long-term strategies to tackle the root causes of displacement are critical. Without such efforts, the situation will only deteriorate, with dire consequences for both Afghan refugees and regional stability. Three and a half years after the Taliban’s return, Afghanistan remains at the center of one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises—one that the international community cannot afford to ignore.
Mallaika Thapar is a Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation.
Shivam Shekhawat is a Junior Fellow with the Observer Research Foundation’s Strategic Studies Programme.
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