Modi’s visit to Argentina and Brazil signals an increase in political will to deepen India-Latin America ties amidst a shifting geopolitical landscape.
Image Source: Press Information Bureau, Government of India
Aside from humdrum bilateral meetings, international visits by heads of government tend to be accompanied by pomp and symbolism. The Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Argentina and Brazil was no different. The first leg of the visit in Argentina saw Modi lay a wreath and pay homage to a statue of General José de San Martín, an iconic figure known as the ‘Liberator of Argentina, Chile, and Peru’. Later, Modi and Argentine President Javier Milei waved to crowds from the balcony of the palatial Casa Rosada (the pink house), which houses the office of the head of government. As Modi stepped off the plane in Brazil, he was greeted by the beats of the Batala Mundo band, an Afro-Brazilian, Samba-Reggae band from Salvador. In Brasilia, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva welcomed Modi with a gallant 114-horse procession. He also conferred the nation’s highest civilian honour—the National Order of the Southern Cross—upon Modi.
As Modi stepped off the plane in Brazil, he was greeted by the beats of the Batala Mundo band, an Afro-Brazilian, Samba-Reggae band from Salvador.
These symbolic gestures are not so common between India and Latin America. After all, Modi’s visit to Buenos Aires marked the first official bilateral visit by an Indian prime minister since Indira Gandhi’s Latin America tour in 1968. Although former PM P. V. Narasimha Rao visited Buenos Aires for the G15 Summit in 1995, and Modi attended the G20 summit in Argentina in 2018, neither was categorised as ‘official’ visits, a term generally accorded to standalone visits where bilateral ties are at the forefront. In fact, Modi's trip to Brazil was also the first State visit since 1968. Previous visits by Indian prime ministers were predominantly to participate in multilateral summits such as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), IBSA (India, Brazil, and South Africa Dialogue), or the G20. Despite the rarity of Indian heads of governments making the long trip to Latin America – or indeed, perhaps because of it – such visits usually don’t have immediate or productive outcomes. They remain a routine exercise in diplomacy and signal a display of intent from New Delhi to court the Latin American region. They are proof of an increase in political will.
India’s exports to Brazil – in line with the nature of exports to Latin America more broadly – tend to be value-added products, such as agrochemicals, refined petroleum, autoparts, and pharmaceuticals.
In the case of India-Latin America relations, politics is secondary to business. Political visits between India and Latin America have increased over the past decade, but their frequency is far less compared to the busier commercial routes between the two sides. India is now amongst the top five largest export destinations for the Latin American region, and is one of the top 10 largest trading partners of Argentina and Brazil. India’s average bilateral trade with Brazil increased from US$7.29 billion for the five-year period 2014–2019 to US$11.89 billion in 2020–2024, a 63 percent growth (illustrated in Graph 1 below). Bilateral trade peaked at US$16.8 billion in 2022, a result of economic recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Before the war, India imported large quantities of sunflower oil from Ukraine, which was subsequently replaced by soybean oil from countries such as Brazil and Argentina. India’s exports to Brazil – in line with the nature of exports to Latin America more broadly – tend to be value-added products, such as agrochemicals, refined petroleum, autoparts, and pharmaceuticals. On the other hand, Brazil’s exports are primarily commodities, such as crude soybean oil, sugar, crude petroleum, and cotton. A new geopolitical development could boost India-Brazil trade: the US-Brazil trade war, where Washington has suddenly imposed a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian imports. This could open the door for more Brazilian exports of crude petroleum, timber, sugar, and iron and steel, among other goods, to India. Nonetheless, trade is unlikely to double or triple in the short term because of the complex, protective, and bureaucratic nature of both countries.
Graph 1. India-Brazil trade (USD)
Source: International Trade Centre, www.trademap.org
Furthermore, India’s trade with Argentina is modest in comparison to India-Brazil trade. India’s average bilateral trade with Argentina stood at US$2.84 billion over the five-year period 2014–2019 and rose to US$4.37 billion in 2020–2024. India holds greater significance as a trading partner for Argentina than the other way around. In 2024, 52 percent of Argentina’s vegetable oil exports – composed of soybean oil and sunflower oil – were shipped to India. It is no surprise that vegetable oils comprise nearly 80 percent of Argentina’s exports to India, with gold, timber, and leather constituting most of the remaining export basket.
Graph 2. India-Argentina trade (USD)
Source: International Trade Centre, www.trademap.org
Both Brazil and Argentina are integral members of MERCOSUR —a regional trade bloc comprising Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Bolivia, and Paraguay. However, there was scarce mention of MERCOSUR during Modi’s recent visit – despite the India-MERCOSUR preferential trade agreement, which is in the process of expansion. This is entirely due to MERCOSUR’s own challenges, ranging from Brazil and Uruguay’s efforts to ink bilateral deals without including Mercosur, to Argentina’s recent threat to leave the bloc, Venezuela’s inclusion in 2012 and its suspension in 2016, as well as Bolivia’s accession in 2024.
Brazilian and Argentine companies have also taken up the challenge of venturing into India, an arduous but promising market, and have so far invested roughly US$1 billion.
More edifying is cross-border investment between India and Brazil, and to a smaller extent, India and Argentina. Brazil is home to the largest Indian investment in the Latin American region, both by value (estimated by India’s Ministry of External Affairs at US$6 billion) and by the number of companies.[1] A handful of Indian companies in the technology, automobile, agrochemical, and consumer products sectors have a sizable presence in Argentina. Perhaps most importantly, Indian companies employ 8,100 people in Argentina, and more than 16,000 people in Brazil.[2] Brazilian and Argentine companies have also taken up the challenge of venturing into India, an arduous but promising market, and have so far invested roughly US$1 billion.
Business may remain at the forefront of India-Latin America ties, but this is an opportune time for politicians on both sides to leverage the geopolitical changes spurred by the tariff threats imposed by the United States and a global reordering of value chains away from China. It may provide a window of opportunity to bring Latin America closer to India’s economic orbit.
Hari Seshasayee is a Visiting Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation and is a co-founder of Consilium Group.
[1] As per the author’s personal calculations, based on estimates from government officials and private companies, there are more than a 100 Indian companies with an office or representation in Brazil.
[2] Estimates based on interviews with government officials.
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Hari Seshasayee is a visiting fellow at ORF, part of the Strategic Studies Programme, and is a co-founder of Consilium Group. He previously served as ...
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