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The low turnout signals to President Muizzu, the PNC, and other parties that voter sentiment goes beyond manifestos and populist promises
Image Source: Getty
With the Maldivian Election Commission (EC) fixing nation-wide Island Council polls on 28 March 2026, the stage is set for a ‘mid-term referendum’ on the Government of President Mohamed Muizzu. He assumed office in November 2023, and his five-year term ends in November 2028.
In the immediate context, a ‘mini-referendum’ on trifurcating the southern Addu municipal council, held on 25 October, recorded a low turnout of 47 per cent, possibly indicating the people’s increasing disinterest in politics. It should be a cause for concern for all segments of society and polity, as Maldivians generally gather in huge numbers since the nation chose multi-party democracy in 2008.
Under the new Constitution, the Island Council elections fall midway between successive presidential polls, followed by parliamentary polls six months down the line. Against this backdrop, the mini-referendum in Addu was held under an omnibus Public Referendum Bill, which was rushed through Parliament, where Muizzu’s ruling People’s National Congress (PNC) command an overwhelming majority. The Bill empowers the Executive to direct the independent Election Commission (EC) on issues of concern— a departure from past practice where the EC held the authority and the issue for popular vote was restricted and mandated by the Constitution.
Under the new Constitution, the Island Council elections fall midway between successive presidential polls, followed by parliamentary polls six months down the line. Against this backdrop, the mini-referendum in Addu was held under an omnibus Public Referendum Bill, which was rushed through Parliament, where Muizzu’s ruling People’s National Congress (PNC) command an overwhelming majority.
In the ‘Addu referendum’, voters in Feydhoo, the largest of the three islands where polls were held, preferred to stay with the existing municipal council, while those in Hulhudhoo and Meydhoo opted out. Though Muizzu claimed to be neutral, his Interior Minister, Ali Ihusaan and his father, Ibrahim Didi, the local MP, campaigned for separation. The former straight away accepted the Feydhoo voters’ decision with grace.
Opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) chairman Fayyaz Ismail described the Feydhoo verdict as a ‘wise decision’. However, former President, Mohammed ‘Anni’ Nasheed, who is back in the party after splitting ahead of the presidential polls in 2023, cautioned against the referendum ‘creating a division’ in Addu, given the history of the ‘Southern Revolution’ that led to the existence of the separatist ‘Suvadive Republic’, for five years from 1958.
It is not unlikely that the Addu referendum would influence the Island Council polls that are only months away, especially in terms of voter turnout. It is also a message for political parties, their leaders and cadres, starting with President Muizzu and his PNC, that there is more to the voter mood than poll manifestos and other populist commitments.
However, there are real and immediate issues that are getting clarified and refined at every turn. Muizzu is likely to bet on political stability that was absolutely lacking under the MDP predecessor Ibrahim ‘Ibu’ Solih (2018-23), despite the party commanding a two-thirds majority in the Parliament.
In addition, the incumbent seems to hope that his ‘fiscal management’ in the face of an inherited economy that was weak and at times tottering, may see the PNC through the island polls. Lately, the President has claimed that his government has funds for loan repayments next year, a high US$ 1.2-billion, including US$500 million in Sukuk loans to India and China, when due in March (around the time of the Island Council polls).
Some experts have endorsed Muizzu’s claims, pointing to a US$800-million forex balance with the central bank, Maldivian Monetary Authority (MMA), and an additional US$ 100-plus million accumulated in the Sovereign Fund created by President Yameen, precisely for repaying governmental debts. Others, including former MDP Finance Minister Ibrahim Ameer, have differed.
However, there is no clarity as to the source of funds for the repayment of up to US$ 600 million in debts that are due in the current fiscal year, ending 31 December. Independent economists and political observers are equally concerned about the spiralling prices of essential commodities by the week and month. Commodity inflation has shot up by more than 4 percent in less than 12 months..
In the ‘Addu referendum’, voters in Feydhoo, the largest of the three islands where polls were held, preferred to stay with the existing municipal council, while those in Hulhudhoo and Meydhoo opted out. Though Muizzu claimed to be neutral, his Interior Minister, Ali Ihusaan and his father, Ibrahim Didi, the local MP, campaigned for separation. The former straight away accepted the Feydhoo voters’ decision with grace.
The US dollar exchange rate and availability are touchy election issues in the country, as even ordinary people have to travel overseas, either to India or Sri Lanka, for healthcare and education. The grey market price for the US dollar has shot up by a third from the official rate of MVR 15.20 to MVR 20 in the past months. The MDP has cautioned the government against printing more currency, as indicated. Nasheed has said that such a course could push the grey market dollar rate beyond MVR 24.
The Opposition MDP too has nothing much to go by, ahead of the Island Council polls. However, with the low turnout in the Addu referendum, they hope to convert it into an electoral opportunity in the long run-up to the presidential poll. The party, which was disheartened by the poor turnout at its anti-government rallies in the past year, was enthused by above-average participation in the more recent one, on 3 October.
The government possibly added to its ‘democracy woes’ by deploying seemingly excessive police force to quell the participants, even when the rally remained peaceful. The avoidable use of pepper spray and, more so, sonic weapons that damaged the hearing faculty of even those sitting in their homes, including aged people and infants, has left a bad taste.
Coupled with the police arresting eight participants and circulating the personal photographs of one young woman cadre on social media, the MDP now has an added issue to try and capture the voters’ imagination, especially on the democracy front. Earlier, the party had protested the anti-defection law that ‘controlled’ ruling party MPs and the accompanying suspension and sacking of three of the seven Supreme Court Justices when the Full Bench was set to hear an Opposition challenge to the same.
After the 3 October rally, the MDP has accused the Government of deploying the constitutional-mandated Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) to harass party leaders, including Chairman Fayyaz Ismail and former Finance Minister Ali Ameer. Indications are that ACC-like actions may move up the ladder against Opposition leaders in the months that follow.
The ruling party may have also blotted its copy-book by President Muizzu constantly posting and sacking constitutional office-holders and civil servants at the highest level. The image of ‘political stability’ that Muizzu wanted to build has taken a hit due to this, replacing it with an ‘unstable administration’. For the general public, the optics and effects are mostly the same.
The MDP is also constantly targeting the government on the economic front, starting with political corruption, where Team Muizzu finds itself always on the defensive. The latest one is the case of containers with 13 million pieces of cigarettes, smuggled into the country through proper shipping channels that vanished from the Malé port.
Earlier this year, Muizzu got Parliament to ban cigarettes and tobacco, with an eye on his ‘conservative constituency’, which still accounts for 40 percent of the electorate. No one is talking about a political hand, but no one is also ready to declare that there was none. ‘Time can change’
Deriving from the satisfactory success of the 3 October rally, the MDP has already announced the next rally on 17 November. The party and also the People’s National Front (PNF) of Yameen, can be expected to go to the people more frequently and across the nation, between now and the Island Council polls. However, the MDP has not responded to Yameen’s earlier call for the divided Opposition to work together whenever the government faltered.
The government possibly added to its ‘democracy woes’ by deploying seemingly excessive police force to quell the participants, even when the rally remained peaceful. The avoidable use of pepper spray and, more so, sonic weapons that damaged the hearing faculty of even those sitting in their homes, including aged people and infants, has left a bad taste.
Experience has shown that the nation’s polity goes into the presidential poll mode from the Island Council elections. Thus, a lot is being read into the recent statement of ruling PNC Chairman and Parliament Speaker, Abdul Raheem Abdulla, Adhurey, who was once Muizzu’s confidant and guide, but not anymore, that ‘time and circumstances can change’.
The MDP is even more of a house divided. All three senior leaders, including former President Ibu Solih, party Chairman Fayyaz Ismail, and party President Abdulla Shahid, former Foreign Minister, are known to nurse ambitions for the 2028 polls. It is unclear which way Nasheed, the MDP’s ‘prodigal son’, would go–or, if he too would throw the hat into the ring, when the party holds the presidential primaries. Some clarity will emerge after the Island Council polls, but that would only be a beginning.
N Sathiya Moorthy is a policy analyst and political commentator, based in Chennai.
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N. Sathiya Moorthy is a policy analyst and commentator based in Chennai. ...
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