South Asia’s Political Reset: Understanding China’s Response

This event is part of the series “The Neighbourhood Scope,” a monthly feature of the Strategic Studies Programme that intends to rekindle key conversations, questions, and debates concerning India’s neighbourhood.

South Asia is at the cusp of change. Between 2022 and 2025, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal have witnessed mass protests that have toppled elected governments. The protests - largely driven by the youth reflect growing discontent with entrenched political elites and demand deep-rooted constitutional and economic reforms. They are calling for improved governance, accountability, and solutions to systemic issues such as corruption and youth unemployment. While domestic factors largely motivated these protests, they pose several important questions about how extra-regional players such as China are responding to the new shifts. In all three countries, China remained largely complicit in the state of the economy and politics. Chinese BRI and consistent preference for commercial assistance continued to increase debts without generating local employment. Its close engagements with Communist parties in Nepal and the Rajapaksas in Sri Lanka had also emboldened them domestically. As the political landscape shifts, China’s response has been notably muted—and less active than in the pre-pandemic years. 

How is China responding to these political resets? What is shaping its foreign policy? What do the demands for political and economic shifts mean for China, its development assistance, and the BRI ? How are the new governments in the region engaging with China ? What does it mean for India-China competition in the region?