This event is part of the series “The Neighbourhood Scope,” a monthly feature of the Strategic Studies Programme that intends to rekindle key conversations, questions, and debates concerning India’s neighbourhood.
May 2026 marks one year since India’s Operation Sindoor, where it launched precision air-strikes on terror infrastructure in Pakistan and PoK, establishing a new normal in bilateral relations. Since then, the lines between the civil-military relations have gotten more blurred in Islamabad. Asim Munir, the then Chief of Army Staff, is now a Field Marshal and is increasingly consolidating his power in the country. Externally, Pakistan is riding high on its apparent (re)emergence in the diplomatic sphere. The Trump administration in Washington increased its engagement with Islamabad, a clear break from the previous two administrations. The crisis also strengthened ties between China and Pakistan. Furthermore, Pakistan has continued to build up on its revived importance, by mediating between the US and Iran. Despite these developments, internal problems persist- the economy is again being bank rolled by a staff level IMF agreement even as the UAE has rescinded its loan due to Pakistan’s role in the mediation process. The political brick-batting which began after Imran Khan’s ouster through a no-confidence motion and subsequent imprisonment has also remained an important element of the country’s political trajectory. Its internal security situation has also been badly affected by an increase in attacks by the TTP as well as the Baloch insurgent groups.
How has the political ground shifted since Operation Sindoor? What does it mean for the country’s civil-military equation? Can Imran Khan potentially change or challenge anything with the current political setup? How will Islamabad’s role in the mediation process pan out in the coming weeks? What does it mean for Islamabad’s diplomatic credentials and strategic Calculations, especially with China and the US? What is the state of Pakistan’s economy? How big is the TTP challenge now and how will the crisis with Afghanistan take shape? Where is Pakistan heading, and what do these shifts mean to India?
