Inflection point: Deciphering Afghanistan-Pakistan Fallout

This event is part of the series “The Neighbourhood Scope,” a monthly feature of the Strategic Studies Programme that intends to rekindle key conversations, questions, and debates concerning India’s neighbourhood.

The Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship is currently at an inflexion point. Punctuating between periods of acute hostility and cooperation, the last four years has seen a steady deterioration of the ties between the two sides. Pakistan’s expectations about having a permanent strategic depth within Afghanistan with the Taliban’s return has all but shattered. The two sides have battled over the activities of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its frequent attacks within Pakistan. While Pakistan blames the Taliban for giving sanctuary and support to the group and for not preventing attacks on Pakistani soil, the Taliban blame Pakistan for not being able to defend its own security and additionally fostering groups inimical to Afghanistan, i.e. the ISKP. The frequent skirmishes at the border, strikes and counter strikes have also disrupted trade while Islamabad’s decision to deport Afghan refugees settled within its borders have further put a spanner on the relationship.

Do you think that this fast dismantling of ties between the two will continue or is there scope for reversal? What are the underlying issues between the two countries? Considering the long-standing ties between both the Taliban and Pakistan, can the world wish them away so quickly? What does this mean for the dynamics in the region, particularly for countries like China, Iran and the Central Asian Republics as well as India’s security and stability? What implications will this have for the spectre of terrorism in the world? How sustainable do you think the decision taken on finding alternatives to Pakistan with regards to trade are for Afghanistan?