Belligerent but Below the Threshold of War: China’s Military Strategy in its Near Seas

China employs a strategy of belligerent operations below the threshold of war against its territorial and maritime neighbours. These range from fistfights with neighbours’ armies and minor troop engagements on land, to ramming ships against theirs in its near seas, clashing with their coast guards, or engaging in aggressive military exercises and aviation patrols. These actions are not severe enough to provoke a war, but not too small to be ignored either. Over the years, China’s neighbours have adapted to such tactics and have become better prepared to counter them. Building on a research paper on the same subject, this seminar will evaluate China’s ‘below the brink’ military strategy and identify its limitations, highlighting case studies of Chinese operations against Taiwan and the Philippines.

Programme