Author : Niranjan Sahoo

Expert Speak India Matters
Published on Jan 14, 2025 Updated 0 Hours ago
Super election year 2024: Lessons for democracy rebuilding

Image Source: Getty

2024 was billed as the biggest election year in history. More than 70 countries, representing nearly half of the global population, went to polls in 2024. From India’s multi-day general elections—the largest electoral exercise in the world—to Indonesia’s presidential poll, the high-stakes presidential polls in the United States (US) to the very consequential elections in the United Kingdom, 2024 witnessed high-voltage campaigns across the globe. What was significant was that a dozen democracies went to polls against the background of intensifying conflicts and geopolitical challenges. While Taiwan held its presidential polls under intense pressure and provocations from Beijing, Russia, which is at war with Ukraine, held its presidential elections in mid-March. Similarly, several African countries including South Africa, Algeria, Ghana, Namibia, Mozambique, Senegal and conflict-ridden South Sudan, conducted their elections amidst escalating conflicts and tensions.

Angry voters and insecure regimes

Elections in 2024 were marked by heavy losses of incumbents. Many newcomers and fringe parties—as in the case of Sri Lanka—made massive electoral gains by ousting established parties. Across countries like Japan, France, South Africa, Britain and the US, voters expressed their frustration with the incumbents, holding them accountable for economic stagnation, inflation, unemployment and intensifying global conflicts. In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party—a party that has been in power since the Second World War— suffered a stunning defeat in the parliamentary elections. Similarly, South Africa’s African National Congress lost its majority for the first time since it came to power in 1994. Closer to home, in Sri Lanka, a less-known Marxist-Leninist leader, Aruna Kumara Dissanayake, led his Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna Party to historic victories in both presidential and parliamentary elections. The UK witnessed a historic turn when the Labour Party secured a landslide victory, ending 14 years of the Conservative Party rule.

In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party—a party that has been in power since the Second World War— suffered a stunning defeat in the parliamentary elections.

Elections in 2024 were marked by heavy losses of incumbents. Many newcomers and fringe parties—as in the case of Sri Lanka—made massive electoral gains by ousting established parties.

Yet, the biggest and most consequential electoral setback was witnessed in the US Presidential election. Angry voters (including many core supporters of the Democratic Party) elected Donald Trump, the former Republic President with far-reaching implications for the world and liberal democracy.

In this season of anti-incumbency, India proved to be an outlier. The incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) formed the government for the third time in a row. Although the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party fell short of securing a majority in the Lok Sabha, the NDA coalition secured 293 seats (out of 543 seats) to form the government.

A right-wing tide

The elections in nearly 70 countries saw the unprecedented electoral successes of far-right parties across many regions of Europe. While far-right parties have been steadily rising in most European countries (following Victor Orban’s victory in 2010), they have made phenomenal electoral gains in 2024. Largely driven by anti-immigration anger and economic disruptions, voters in the EU showed unusual confidence in right-wing populists. In September, Herbert Kickle’s far-right Freedom Party won the parliamentary elections with 29 percent votes, while conservative parties in Belgium and Portugal made impressive gains in 2024. At least seven EU countries, namely the Czech Republic, Croatia, Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia, have far-right parties that have become part of governing coalitions. Yet, the real turning point as far as the rise of far-right parties is concerned was from two of the biggest EU member states: France and Germany.

Largely driven by anti-immigration anger and economic disruptions, voters in the EU showed unusual confidence in right-wing populists.

The ripple effects of the rise of far-right parties are visible in the recently-held EU (parliament) election.  The anti-immigration centre-right European People's Party (EPP) made massive electoral gains when it secured 188 out of the 720 seats in the European Parliament. While the EU’s far-right story is notable, it was overshadowed by the unprecedented victory of Republican nominee Donald Trump, a known right-wing populist in the US. While Trump’s unexpected victory may cast a shadow over the liberal democracy project, it is likely to catalyse right-wing parties around the world.

Rise of foreign interference in elections

Another noticeable trend during 2024 was the rising incidences of election interference and disinformation by authoritarian actors. It is well-known now that cyber-attacks and information influence operations by authoritarian states, particularly Russia, China, and Iran, have become a major threat to election integrity across democracies. With the arrival of AI tools, particularly generative AI, the scales of disinformation and chances of election manipulation were seen to be damaging in 2024. According to major tech platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, there were 20 election-related covert operations in the US, Europe, Asia (including India), and the Middle East, originating from Russia, Iran, and China. The good thing, however, was that the election management institutions and tech platforms were able to find solutions to reduce the extent of disruptions from foreign actors and their manipulative tools. Yet, the recent instances of alleged Russian interference in Romanian and Georgian elections should keep the democracy-watchers on alert.

With the arrival of AI tools, particularly generative AI, the scales of disinformation and chances of election manipulation were seen to be damaging in 2024.

Conclusion

Elections in over 70 countries in 2024 took place against the backdrop of growing democratic backsliding, marked by the weakening of independent institutions in some of the biggest democracies and increasing disillusionment amongst voters over issues such as immigration, jobs, and economic stagnation, amongst others. In many democracies, voters, particularly younger ones, there seems to be growing disillusionment with elections. These factors were, to a great extent, capitalised on by the populist leaders (mostly right-wing) in Europe and America to win elections and cement their hold on democratic institutions (and values!). Amidst challenges, the biggest hope for democratic resilience emerged from South Asia. The street protests in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, largely led by the youth, have opened the doors for greater democratisation. In short, if 2024 was a year of elections, 2025 would likely be the year of democratic consolidation, notwithstanding the growing right-wing challenges from Europe to America.


Niranjan Sahoo is a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. 

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Author

Niranjan Sahoo

Niranjan Sahoo

Niranjan Sahoo, PhD, is a Senior Fellow with ORF’s Governance and Politics Initiative. With years of expertise in governance and public policy, he now anchors ...

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