A solely American perspective would be ill-suited to understanding the complex dynamics and goals of China's military ambitions
China's strategic policy and its military ambitions in the post-Mao decades has been focused on ‘Winning without a fight’ through building up a network of friendly states, allies and client states in and around itself and economic modernization along enhancing military capabilities, opined a US scholar Dr. Jackqueiline Newmyer at a roundtable discussion at the ORF campus on Wednesday, January 13, 2010.
Initiating the discussion, Dr Newmyer observed that the patterns of Chinese military behaviour should not be studied only from the U.S point of view. To illustrate this point, she gave the example of Deng Xiaoping and his focus on orienting China’s strategic vision back to its ancient roots.
This is particularly evident in his (Deng) comparison of the world environment at the time of China’s reforms to China’s ‘Warring States period’. The significance of this and the history of Chinese strategic culture were not fully understood by the U.S, due to their lack of knowledge of China’s history. Chinese policy after its reforms was to avoid being encircled and to create a network of friendly states in and around South East Asia which mirrored the policies undertaken during the ‘Warring states period’.
This would decrease the threat of conflict, as the issue is deliberately complicated by the political equations of other states and the relationship that China enjoys with these states, Dr. Newmyer said.
She stated that from the American point of view, China’s long energy supply lines and lines of communication, it was necessary for China to focus on significantly developing its blue-water capabilities to protect them. However, she cautioned that to truly understand China’s Blue-Water capabilities it is necessary to understand it from the Chinese point of view. A solely American perspective would be ill-suited to understanding the complex dynamics and goals of China’s military ambitions.
In this regard she summed up China’s strategic policy as ‘Winning without a fight’. This includes building up a network of friendly states, allies and client states in and around itself. This would decrease the threat of conflict, as the issue is deliberately complicated by the political equations of other states and the relationship that China enjoys with these states.
Another visiting Professor Stephen Rosen then took up the discussions by basing his views on the time he spent on the President’s Commission on Integrated long term strategy. This encompassed the U.S position in 1990 and the balance of power in Asia and how it changed. The group had accurately forecasted that the economic rise of India and China would shift U.S world views from Europe to Asia. They also highlighted the importance of the information revolution on the nature of military conflicts in the next century. The consensus was that American military Strategy particularly its Blue-water strategy needed to change to reflect these changing dynamics.
Professor Rosen then highlighted the policy measures that the U.S has taken to address these complex issues, particularly in relation to China’s military modernization particularly its naval capabilities. These included the development of long range aviation and surface combatant vessels, investing in stealth technology capabilities for its submarines and aircrafts and finally augment the capabilities of other countries in Asia, to balance the equilibrium in Asia. Professor stressed that America’s goals were not to actually fight a war with China, but to ensure it could win one without a fight. He along with Dr. Newmyer stressed that while China’s Blue-Water capabilities still had a long way to go, they could become a matter of concern.
These presentations was followed by a brief yet lively interactive session, in which the panelists answered questions ranging from China’s true military capabilities and its influence in Asia, to its newly emergent cyber-war capabilities.
Professor Stephen P Rosen and Dr. Jackqueline Newmyer were the two main presenters at this discussion. Dr. Rosen is the Beton Michael Kaneb professor of National Security and Military Affairs at Harvard University and Dr. Newmyer is a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and President and CEO of the Long Term Strategy Group a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based defense consultancy.
The event was chaired by Lt Gen Vinayak Patankar, Distinguished Fellow, ORF. The discussants included Brigadier Arun Sahgal, Captain P.K Ghosh and Sujeet Samaddar Vice President, Nova Integrated Systems Limited. The meeting was also attended by Mr. Sunjoy Joshi, Distinguished Fellow and President Centre for Resources Management, ORF and Dr. Rajeswari Rajagopalan and Dr. Satish Misra.
This report has been prepared by Hemant Nair
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