Joining the dots: Tracking mainstreaming of Syrian regime from the skies

It is now an accepted fact in the power centres of Western capitals that the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, against whom popular movements sprung up across the country during the infamous Arab Spring protests beginning in 2010, has survived. While the protests saw the unseating of many authoritarian regimes in the Middle East, followed by anarchic political processes giving way to either a breakdown of political systems or return of military rule, Syria became a focal point with the rise of the ISIS capturing global news. While the likes of Egypt and Libya ended up with military dictatorship and a civil war respectively, the world’s attention slowly and steadily started to go towards Syria where protests against the Assad regime were gathering momentum. However, almost nine years on, the Assad presidency has survived all the odds thanks to the backing of its partners, Russia and Iran. Almost nine years on, the Assad presidency has survived all the odds thanks to the backing of its partners, Russia and Iran. In November 2011, during the initial stages of the Syrian civil war, the Arab League (where India is an observer member) suspended member state Syria over its failures to end the bloodshed between protesters and government forces. The 22-member Arab conclave also imposed political and economic sanctions on the Assad regime. “We hope there will be a brave move from Syria to stop the violence and begin a real dialogue toward real reform,” the then Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabr bin Muhammad Al Thani had said. Since then, all regional dynamics have changed. The Arab League itself was split open as the UAE and Saudi Arabia sidelined Qatar for working against their interests, ironically, including in Syria. Meanwhile, Damascus became an influence zone for Iran, bringing Tehran’s military and non-state actors on the doorsteps of the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel alike. The Assad regime was emboldened, and with the backing of Russia and Iran, played its part in defeating the Islamic State while successfully with holding on to power. Fast-forward to 2019, and regional stance on Syria started to soften with the largely isolated country quietly starting to get back to its bilateral and multilateral relationships, specifically with its Arab neighbours. This return to the international mainstream was propelled by the fact that Assad had the backing of Moscow and Tehran, and whether he stays or goes was not the decision left to the Arab states or western powers anymore. Second, they preferred Assad over an overnight regime change which would most definitely herald in a fully pro-Tehran ecosystem. With Assad, there is still space for some maneuvering, even today. In December 2018, the UAE re-opened its embassy in Damascus after seven years, albeit with limited staff after protest by Washington. Meanwhile, Egypt has said it has put no conditions on Syria re-joining the Arab League. Others are expected to follow suit. Beyond the region, every member of the BRICS grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) has also now re-opened their missions in Damascus (India only briefly down-graded its embassy due to security concerns, but never closed it). Regional stance on Syria started to soften with the largely isolated country quietly starting to get back to its bilateral and multilateral relationships, specifically with its Arab neighbours. This return to the international mainstream was propelled by the fact that Assad had the backing of Moscow and Tehran. ORF developed a database to track the revival of Syria’s civil aviation ecosystem, as Syrian Arab Airlines (or Syrian Air) and Cham Wings, two of Syria’s main airlines, started to take to the skies again,  connecting Damascus to neighbouring capitals. The planes started to take to the Syrian skies regularly last year, as more Arab capitals were added to the network connecting Damascus. The Cham Wings was also the subject of an investigative report by Reuters, identifying the sanctions hit airline for transporting pro-Assad fighters from Rostov, a town in western Russia, to Syria. Both the Syrian Air and the Cham Wings have a small fleet of European manufactured Airbus aircraft, which makes it easier to track movements using the aircrafts unique registration numbers. American diplomatic cables leaked in 2008 highlight Syrian Air as “the regime asset most vulnerable to unilateral US sanctions, and where the effect of sanctions is the most obvious to the Syrian public.” (Open source flight data showing Syrian airlines Airbus A320 operating between Damascus and the Egyptian capital of Cairo) Cairo had been backing Assad since the beginning despite Syria’s suspension from the Arab League. In February 2017, reports said that Russian transport planes were flying Egyptian troops to Russia’s Syrian base in Lataika. Flight data sites showed Russian Il-76 transport planes shuttling between Syria and Egypt without destinations being highlighted. However no ground corroborations of the same were available. Other than Egypt, Syrian and Cham Wings flights have made daily routes to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait over the past few months and there are indications of Jordan (who sent a charge d affairs to Syria recently) also coming back into play with direct air connections between the two cities soon. (A Cham Wings Airbus A320 (SAW702) entering the airspace around Damascus from Kuwait City) In February, the Cham Wings operated another peculiar flight, this time to Yerevan, the capital of Armenia. The flights observed were in all probability not commercial, but to bring Armenian soldiers to Syria to take part in Russia backed operations. More than 83 Armenians soldiers, medics and de-mining experts were reported arriving in Syria, to be deployed in and around Aleppo. The ravaged city was also home to the largest concentration of ethnic Armenians living in Syria, with more than 100,000 of the diaspora and more than 20,000 escaping the rise of the ISIS in the region over the past few years. (Cham Wings A320 (SAW452) operating between Syria and Armenia) This basic exercise showcased that despite suspension from the Arab League, member states are now re-engaging with Syria as geo-political compulsions, fractures within Gulf alliances and Iranian expansionism force regional powers to reverse their isolation of the Assad regime and look to re-engage in dialogue. This week, at the Baghdad Summit, Syria will also for the first time participate in a conference with Saudi Arabia and Turkey (along with Iran as well) and other key regional players that is not related to negotiations or talks about the war. The mainstreaming of Damascus back into the normalised regional fold is truly underway, from people to people contact to economics and trade.

• International Affairs
• West Asia
• ARAB LEAGUE
• Syria
• Syrian Airspace

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