Pakistan Developments Signs of Transformation
19 January 2012
 The people of Pakistan are not looking on military as a replacement for bad, blundering, useless civilian leadership. So, there are these changes which are there in Pakistan today. And these developments are signs of transformation in the country where the Army had played a dominant role in the past.
This was the view expressed by Wilson John, Vice President and Senior Fellow of Observer Research Foundation in an interview to the Voice of Russia.
Reproduced below is the text of the interview.
You know, it is hard to say that the Prime Minister has picked to the strong stance against serving Army Chief, it is in many ways, in my opinion, unprecedented in Pakistan. That certainly shows - number one - on the face of it there is clear rift between the military leadership and the civilian leadership, but more than that I can also see that the civilian leadership any party it comes from, it holds I think backing upon the kind of public support for the democratic process. Why I’m saying so? Clearly there is no demand from the people for a military rule, so the military rule is clearly in my opinion is not in the interest of the public, and nor the public is interested in a military rule at this stage considering that they have gone through it in 2007 and before that.
So, I think this is one of the points which give Gilani a considerable strength in taking on a powerful Army Chief. The Army itself is in a bit of a problem at this stage in Pakistan for two major reasons - one is the kind of shame and embarrassment it felt after the Abbottabat raid in May 2011, which I don’t think the Pakistani Army, particularly General Kayani has been able to live down. So, that is the way I see this problem. And subsequently there followed the rift between the US and Pakistan, which has really affected the Pakistani military as such, it has considerably weakened the Pakistani Army’s view of its own superiority in Pakistan.
Secondly, you know, for the last six month the rift from the US also has shown that Pakistan at one point of time, in early 2011 the Pakistani Army and Kayani was predicting itself as a key player in Afghanistan, you know, the reconciliation of Afghanistan or the withdrawal plan for 2014 relied largely on how Pakistan Army is in board. That also has changed in the last six months, Pakistan really is not a key player, it is certainly a player in Afghanistan but not the key player.
If we look at the strength and the position of the Pakistan Army both at the domestic level and at the international level, you know, with India there are much more reconsidered revises being made, and there is in my opinion comparatively, relatively speaking better relationship is building between India and Pakistan, and I think concreteness has come aboard, but the resisting rhetoric has gone from both sides, there is more talk of more cooperation in trade and transit, and investment potentials.
So, India is no longer an enemy, you know, if you look at these public surveys - the most hated country in Pakistan today is US and not India, which is in my opinion a significant change. And there is also a great urge to cooperate among business factions and political factions in Pakistan, to have better relations with India, which also in a way weakened Pakistan Army’s position within the country, because they have been dependent on designed and very strong and vigilant anti-India stance to get the strength and get the support. There are changes, which are happening within Pakistan and outside Pakistan, which is also I think forcing the Army itself to rethink on how they are going to deal with this fast changing environment in the country and outside the country.
So, it is not only a fight between the Prime Minister and the Chief of army. And I think what we can see are the signs of transformation, which is happening between the civilian and military question in Pakistan. I don’t know whether it will turn out to be good or bad, but certainly there is a change, which is taking place. Army is no longer, at least do not consider itself to be, as omni-present, omni-potent as it used to and the civilian leadership on the other hand do not projecting themselves to be so weak and so dependent on the Army’s benevolence and support that they are now taking up projects against the military particularly within the state. So, there are changes happening in Pakistan, it’s very significant.
But the Army is not exactly cornered of course. Do I get it right that it is still quite powerful and I suppose that it does feel bad about those changes which you’ve been describing to me?
I really don’t think it has any choice on that. What is the supreme interest of Pakistan? The supreme interest of Pakistan Army is to protect its staff in Pakistan, so it’s only interest the Pakistan Army has shown - its own interest as an entity in Pakistan’s political space, it has always been supreme to the country itself in many ways. I think it’ll consolidate and protect its own interests even in the current standoff, but I think the Army as an institution also realizes that there is no stationary scopes - the world is changing, the world has changed, so they need to change themselves and they need to adapt themselves to the changing environment.
One of the changes they also rely very clearly economically, Pakistan isn’t far more see this problem that any other sphere, it’s growing and there is 2.3% - 2.4% every year, by a Planning Commission Report of Pakistan, it needs to grow at the rate of 7%, it has drastically growing younger population. It’s the youngest saltation country, the age profile within 20-40 is close to 50% of the population and it was just 20% in the last ten years. So, what it is looking at is a possibility of widely 150 million people who need jobs, who need schooling, who need various other facilities which young population will require. For the creation of that you need some kind of economic impetus now, which is not happening.
And also you can see that about the payments it’s fine, but I think a serious prevalent issue is that it imports more than it exports and as Syria suffers funding crunch some of the traditional allies and investors are hesitant to give any more credit at least on the oil. Chinese whom they back upon sometimes are not very open with funding or aid as such. Americans I think are very deeply upset with Pakistan. There is of course the old as economics problem which the investors are facing today - there is no domestic stomach for additional aid to Pakistan, at least Pakistan fulfills some commitments with Americans or the others. Western powers want them to do so in terms of terrorism in Afghanistan.
So, there is a cash crunch in Pakistan, but there is no money coming from anywhere, only 2% of the population pay taxes. So, there isn’t money in it. You know, if you look at the critical issue today and the people haven’t gone to the streets in Pakistan if you see, not on drones and not on the US, but on the issue of power shortages and gas shortages. You know, there have been riots in different cities in the last twenty years over power shortages and gas shortages which are likely to become more acute, as we come closer to summer when these shortages, particularly the power shortages, I think will be felt much more deeply than in winter.
So, there are problems and there is no way they can resolve the power and gas shortages unless they have some money to buy all these things. So, that is a serious problem on the horizon in terms of governance and basic needs of the people of Pakistan.
I think that, in my opinion, the Army’s administration do realize that’s the bigger challenge than even terrorism and to settle that I think you need to change yourself, I think there is a realization within the Army that you really can’t take the people for granted. And this is a very significant which we are going to see that the Pakistani Army, the Chief of Army staff and the core commanders when they met to discuss the crisis but they decided to depend on where the Supreme Court is going to deliver which is a civilian institution.
So, the most powerful institution in Pakistan today now is backing on the civilian institution which they have destroyed by 2007 in March, Kayani with the same votary people who worshiped Musharraf, when they went toward Iftikhar Chaudhry who was Chief Justice of Supreme Court to resign or be confined. That was bold a bit that group that the same Chief Justice is now being looked up to rescue the Army. The world has changed in the last ten years, so you know, this is significant - in 2007 Chief Justice was confined and now you are going to the same Chief Justice to rescue you.
So, Kayani fully knows that there is a change of environment in Pakistan today as well as in different parts of the world. There is no patience any more I think with military rule, I think they need a civilian leadership and the political process to go on. The people of Pakistan are not looking on military as a replacement for bad, blundering, useless civilian leadership. So, there are these changes which are there in Pakistan today.
You’ve mentioned General Mushrraf, what’s the point of his coming back to Pakistan?
He just came back to see whether he can become what he used to call himself - a savior of Pakistan, it is ridiculous. He doesn’t have a popular support, he doesn’t have political party with him to rely or anything to stand by in Pakistan today. I don’t think the Army is also very keen on seeing him back, because he I think has been meddling really much more and revealing the political process.
So, there is a problem with Musharraf. I don’t think Musharraf has political force at all in Pakistan, at least not now, maybe in ten or twenty years from now if he will remain there in Pakistan. But he really can’t run politics in Pakistan sitting in London, you need to be there and highly value the destiny, grow fame of Pakistan or any country to fight politics.
So, I think just he is making noise that he wants to come back and patch to kind of some coalition with his former allies that the MLQ. But I really don’t think he is going to succeed even if he does come back, I think he will just go back to London knowing that people do not want him back. I don’t think he’ll meet any interest among the people of Pakistan to see Musharraf back.
The memories of Musharraf’s blunders, and the cruelty, and all the things which he did to Lal Masjid are very, very alive in the minds of the people. I don’t think people don’t want seeing him back and without people I don’t think Musharraf is going anywhere, he is not already the Army Chief.
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