2008 was a historic year for Nepal
31 January 2008

Overview

2008 was a historic year for Nepal. The Monarchy was replaced by a new Republic and the elections were held for the new Constituent Assembly in which the Maoists rose to political power through ballot, and not bullet.

Constituent Assembly elections

In 2008, Nepal achieved a historic feat, by holding the much-awaited and widely-debated Constituent Assembly elections on April 10, 2008. There were more than 54 political parties in the fray for the 601-member Assembly, of which 240 members were elected through First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) system and 335 through Proportional Representation (PR) system. The remaining 26 were nominated by the Prime Minister in consultations with other major parties. Though there were fears about pre-election violence, the elections went off largely peaceful with some minor clashes. Even, the poll observers, both internal and international, termed it peaceful.

In the last week of April, when the Election Commission announced the final results, it sent a shock wave to all the mainstream political parties, including the Maoists. The Maoists emerged as the single largest party in the elections but fell short of achieving a majority to form a government on their own.. They won 220 seats in the assembly, more than the combined number of seats won by the two major parties, the Nepali Congress (110), and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) with (103). The polls also led to emergence of a new regional force in the Terai, which was considered to the stronghold of the NC. The Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) emerged as the fourth largest party winning 51 seats along with other Terai parties making their presence in the new political set-up. The important aspect was that the success of the elections helped to keep the peace process on track and offered hope for drafting of a new Constitution for new Nepal.

The Maoists got popular support not only from the rural areas but also were able to make their presence felt in the urban areas, especially in Kathmandu. They got considerable number of votes from the marginalised sections. It was the `inclusive` character of the candidates, attractive slogans, radical agenda, a highly-motivated cadre and a well-planned strategy which helped the Maoists to spring the electoral surprise. On the other hand, the NC and UML were handicapped by traditional candidates and agenda, and festering disputes within themselves.

The elections changed the political landscape in more than one way. Though the Maoists topped the share of seats (37 percent), they were unable to form a government of their own. The post-election transition thus became contentious and prolonged. There were three reasons for these teething troubles: the interim Constitution was ambiguous in many of its transitional provisions, with lot of loopholes which often led to deadlocks. Since, the interim Constitution was based on the assumption of the Seven Party Alliance and the Maoist consensus, the electoral result sowed serious differences among the parties. The pre-election calculations of all the parties except the Maoists were predicated on defeating the Maoists, and hence they baulked from accepting the pre-conditions set by themselves.

Birth of a New Republic

Apart from the CA elections, another significant development that made history of Nepal was the decision to formally abolish the 240-year old monarchy and declare the country as a Federal Democratic Republic. The proposal for a republic was overwhelmingly endorsed by 560 members supporting it while only four members stood against it. According to the declaration in the Assembly, "Nepal turned into an independent, indivisible, secular, inclusive, federal democratic republic with sovereignty and state authority vested in the people." The proposal scrapped all and any royal rights and privileges of former King and his family members.

The announcement of Republic drew mixed reactions from within as well from outside the country. The democratic forces and people in large wanted to get rid of the autocratic rule of the then King Gyanendra but it was not sure if they wanted to get rid of the institution as a whole. The royalists (supporter of monarchial system) warned that the country would move towards disintegration. They wanted to continue with the institution of monarchy as it symbolized unity in the country. However, the Republic announcement fulfilled the Maoists long aspirations to oust the age-old feudal institution in the country and establish a secular rule. The Maoists perceived it as a success of their 10-year long struggle. The international community, too, accepted the verdict but with some apprehensions, especially because of the Maoists which were designated as terrorist groups by some countries.

Though there were widespread fears of a royal retaliation with the assistance of the army, the deposed king however made an honorable exit. He vacated the Narayanhiti Palace and went into a political hibernation. This incident was historically significant as it facilitated the transition from a monarchy to a complete Republican state.

Politics of polarisation

The year began with many unity efforts but following the elections results, differences started to appear between the political parties on petty issues The week after the elections provided some grounds for optimism despite the bitter fights over the next steps. However, the major problem was that, powerful losers were not ready to accept the results. The only surprise was that the losers in question were neither the Maoists nor the King but NC and UML. The parties discarded their promise of political consensus for their short-term political interests.

The inter-party rift gained momentum on the issue of power-sharing and government formation. Though initially, the care-taker Prime Minister, Girija Prasad Koirala, had publicly stated numerous times that he would resign and let the party with majority form the new government, he later backtracked. Instead, he started bargaining with the Maoists to be elected as the President while UML distanced itself from all these controversies. However, the Maoists outrightly rejected Koirala's proposal and argued that if he were to become the President, the power struggles between the President and the PM would be inevitable.

Before the polls, the parties had reached an understanding to work jointly irrespective of the election results. In fact, this understanding was bolstered by a provision in the interim Constitution that politics of consensus should continue. However, in July, the newly-formed Assembly passed the Fifth Amendment to the interim Constitution, clearing the way for the government formation on a majority basis rather than working on the basis of consensual politics. It also allowed the election of the President on a majority basis. According to the new amendment, all the top constitutional posts would be filled on the basis of understanding and if the situation warranted, to be elected by a simple majority. With so much of acrimony among the parties, the Constitution drafting process got delayed.

Apparently, the NC's polarisation policy led to the formation of a new alliance excluding the Maoists. A tripartite agreement between the NC, UML, and MJF decided to elect the President from NC, Vice President from MJF, and Chairperson of CA from UML. The new alliance voted for their respective candidates to the top post. In July, the CA elected Dr. Ram Baran Yadav, a NC candidate as the first President and Parmananda Jha, a MJF candidate as the Vice President and Subhas Nembang as the CA Chairperson of Nepal. In fact, after the Maoist's Presidential candidate was defeated, their bargaining power, too, weakened.

Later, the rift among NC, UML and MJF started to widen because the latter two wanted the Maoists to head the government. The NC was against the Maoists taking over the reins. This pushed the Maoists, UML and MJF to come closer, making it easier for the Maoists to get their candidate elected as the Prime Minister. These two large communist parties today-- with 323 members--control an outright majority in the CA. The Maoists and UML decided to divide the cabinet positions along with MJF. The MJF backed the Maoists in their bid to form the government along with UML and 16 smaller parties. The newly formed CA, however, made history with the election of Maoist Chairman Puspha Kamal Dahal ?Prachanda" as the country's Prime Minister. He was elected with 464 out of 601 votes. Eventually, these new faces symbolised a visible shift in the leadership and the rise of commoners to the seat of power in Nepal.

Maoist's rise to power

After assuming the seat of power and with the aim to take the peace process to a logical end, the Maoist-led government publicized its policies and programmes. The newly elected Maoist Prime Minister, Prachanda, for the first time, acknowledged that his party's mission for political transformation had been accomplished with the country's transition from monarchial rule to a republic. However, there remained several challenges to be addressed. There has been little progress on numerous critical elements of the peace process. Apart from the security sector reforms, the majority of issues, the 23-point agreement promised to address remain unresolved. There is no mechanism to deal with contentious land issues; nor has there been any consensus on reviving local government without which basic services cannot he delivered. The Maoists further released an 84-point document, a guideline to be followed to run the government and to draft the new Constitution with the support of all the political parties within the stipulated timeframe. In fact, drafting the Constitution was high on the list of priorities. Likewise, it reiterated its principal responsibility to take the peace process to its logical end resolving the army integration issue and bring socio-economic transformation in ten years to fulfill people's aspirations. Though, the government initiated several efforts to resolve some of the pressing issues, its intention was widely questioned, sometimes by its own coalition partners and the main Opposition NC party.

New Constitution

The CA was mandated to draft a new and inclusive Constitution. Although the drafting process has begun formally, the rift between the Maoists and NC remained static and ever-widening. In fact, NC has been demanding the implementation of the nine-point agreement before the government initiated the process of drafting. Similarly, MJF and other parties from Terai demanded implementation of the 18-point pact reached in February 2008. On the other hand, the Maoists reiterated to draft a revolutionary Constitution which only raised hackles among the coalition partners and the Opposition alike. After an eight-month stalemate and painstaking deliberations, the government finally formed committees to start the drafting process. The 14th session of the CA formally entered into the process of drafting new Constitution to be promulgated before May 28, 2010. Already, 14 committees including a Constitutional Committee under the leadership of UML leader Madhav Kumar Nepal, 10 thematic committees and three procedural committees held meetings to decide how they should initiate the process to shape up new democratic Nepal within the stipulated timeframe.

PLA Integration

The debate over the integration of the Maoist PLA combatants into the Nepal Army remained in prominence during the year. In fact, the integration of the combatants became a major issue of contention between the Maoists and other major political parties. However, there was no serious discussion on this critical issue, even as both Nepal Army and PLA remained at full strength and inherently unstable situation. More importantly, the continuing existence of two standing armies inherently continues to pose serious challenge and has potential to push the country to another internal conflict. Similarly, there are widespread concerns over a Maoist government commanding both the Nepal Army and its own forces.

Integrating the eligible Maoist cadres into NA pose a serious challenge to the government. The issue has provoked a major controversy in Nepal. General Rukmangud Katuwal, the Chief of NA, has opposed the integration proposal. Koirala voiced that the integration of indoctrinated combatants will have a negative impact on the professional Army. NC and UML have been using this issue as a negotiating tactic to share power with the Maoist. The Maoists are strongly opposed to the demands of the political parties and threatened to launch a new struggle. The failure to integrate PLA cadres with the army will have a serious impact on the peace process in Nepal. Interestingly, neither the peace accord nor the interim constitution is clear about where to integrate the PLA. The interim Council of Ministers is certainly mandated to form a special committee to "supervise, integrate and rehabilitate the PLA" but it took months for the committee to be set-up. Similarly, the NA has clearly expressed its willingness to abide by the directives of any legitimate government but objected to the merger of politically indoctrinated combatants into the institution. Despite all differences and hindrances, the government constituted an Army Integration Special Committee (AISC) to take care of the integration issue on priority basis.

Terai

The Terai region in Nepal, with 49% of the total population, is in upheaval over political and economic discrimination. The Madhesis, as the Terai people are widely known, have been pressing for equal representation in all sectors, and to free themselves from the domination of the Hill people. They have been complaining about their representation in the parliament, the government, police and army as well as economic discrimination. They have also been demanding regional autonomy. More than 14 armed groups are active in the region and over 200 persons were killed in the Madhesi violence last year. In September, these groups reportedly met in the neighbouring Indian state of Bihar to discuss forming a unified armed movement to promote the Madhesi interests claiming that the government was not interested to meet the demands of the Terai people. The government continues to face difficult time in dealing with these armed groups, especially after it rejected the demand for United Nations (UN) mediation. Though the government has invited the groups for talks, only two fringe groups, the Madhesi Virus Killers and Samyukta Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha, have accepted the offer. The emergence of several groups based on ethnic and regional lines demanding for autonomy has widened the gap between different political parties over identity politics.

Security situation

The security situation in Nepal, especially in Terai continues to remain worrisome. Violence, closure of industries and increasing authoritarian tendencies continue to threaten the peace process. Though PM Prachanda tried to assure the international donors about peace and stability in the country, the Maoist affiliated YCL continued to create havoc around the country by taking law in their hands and targeting members of rival political parties. On the other hand, to counter the YCL cadres, UML nd MJF also formed own youth wings. Even the NC youth force Tarun Dal got into the act to confront YCL and YF cadres in their respective strongholds. These youth wings, particularly the YCL and the Maoist trade unions, forced closures of many industries and factories in the Terai. They used this tactics to extort money, obtain jobs for cadres and relatives and establish their control. Finally, under immense pressure from other political parties and coalition partners, Maoist Chief Prachanda announced the disbanding of YCL and its paramilitary structure.

Economic Dimension

The decade-long political instability and insurgency-related violence have undermined the country's economy. Though the industrial base of the country is small, Nepal produces carpets and garments which now account for a major portion of the exports. The other sources of revenue generation are tourism and remittances including those from the Gurkha soldiers serving in the Indian and British armies. To give impetus to the dormant and sick industries in the country, the government promised the business community that it will not bring any policy change which might hinder the economic development process. It assured that there would be no nationalization of the private sector. The government's efforts, however, remained impeded by political instability, corruption, vested interests, small economy, landlocked location and lack of technological development.

External Relations

Nepal received wide attention from the international community. The CA elections brought several international observers to the country. Subsequently, the election outcome and the Maoists emerging victorious also attracted global scrutiny. The international community was surprised and apprehensive about the Maoist victory. But, after the Maoists took power, the western countries were not hesitant to dispatch their representatives to Kathmandu to ensure that the new Maoist government followed the democratic norms. On the other hand, the Maoists were also quick to gauge the international reactions and made assuring voices about building a democratic Nepal. After assuming power, Maoist Chairman Prachanda visited China, India and subsequently, the United States to address the UN General Assembly. Similarly, several foreign dignitaries visited Nepal. The UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon visited Nepal followed by the Foreign Ministers of India, UK, China and several other European countries.

Though India, a traditional friend of Nepal, welcomed the Maoists victory and the birth of a Republic, the Maoist-led government called for review of all bilateral agreements. In his first foreign policy statement after the elections, Prachanda demanded the scrapping of the 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty between Nepal and India along with a review of other treaties. He also demanded regulation of the Nepal-India border, ban on the entry of Indian vehicles into Nepal, and the end of Gorkha recruitments into the Indian armed forces. Prachanda, however, refrained from reiterating his call when he visited India later and instead promised to maintain cordial relations with India and asked for assistance in reviving Nepal's dormant economy and invited investments in the hydro-power and other sectors. The visit was followed by several high-level visits by senior officials from both the countries.

The Maoists victory offered China an opportunity to establish stronger ties with its Communist counterpart. The Communist Party of China (CPC) offered to establish party-to-party relationship with the Nepali Maoists. Even the Maoists showed a strong desire to engage with China. In a goodwill gesture and to appease their northern neighbour, the Maoists initiated a campaign against the Dalai Lama's office in Nepal. Prachanda said he would not allow the office of the Dalai Lama's representative in Kathmandu to re-open. The Maoists reiterated to stop any activities from the Nepalese soil that could displease China. Beijing continued its economic aid to Nepal--in September, China approved Rs 100 million in military assistance.

The US maintained its strong support for political pluralism while building up contacts with the Maoists. It welcomed both the elections and the republic declaration. In fact, the US has been taking "quiet steps to reorient its policy" towards Nepal. Establishing informal contacts, the US envoy to Nepal, Nancy Powell held her first meeting with the Maoist leadership on May 1, 2008. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Evan Feigenbaum explained in May 2008 that while the Maoists were included on the Terrorist Exclusion List and the Specially Designated List, they were not on the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list. The FTO has a more stringent set of requirements than the other two lists. He added that "the degree to which we can work with parties in Nepal will depend very directly on the degree to which they continue to embrace the political process and abandon violence".

The Maoist leadership also exhibited its keenness to establish a strong relationship with the US. In September, when Prachanda traveled to the US to attend the UN General Assembly, he met with a number of foreign leaders, including President George Bush. Prachanda reportedly asked Bush for support and assistance. He also met with US Assistant Secretary of State, Richard Boucher and sought the removal of his Maoist organisation from the US list of terrorist groups. The US government has agreed to continue with its development assistance to Nepal but will closely monitor the situation and functioning of the Maoist government.

Paul Soren is Junior Fellow, ORF

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16 Prime Minister Prachanda, visited the United States in September 2008, to attend the United Nations General Assembly meet. His visit was aimed to establish and extend Nepal's bilateral ties with the international community under the Maoist-led government. Equally, it was intended to garner the US support for Nepal's development process and more importantly to lobby to remove the Maoists from the US List of Terrorist Organization", "Prime Minister Prachanda's visit successful' The Kathmandu Post, October 1, 2008
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